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Eli Manning's adjusted interceptions...

#1sextronbotPosted 11/1/2011 10:15:02 PM
Some of you may be aware of that adjusted interceptions thing Football-Outsiders did where they subtracted interceptions from tipped passes and hail mary passes, while adding dropped interceptions by the defense. I don't think they have anything like that up so far this year, but despite being a Cowboys fan I see every Giants game due to living 20 minutes from the Meadowlands, which means that I am very capable of providing this board with a count of what Eli's adjusted interception total would be if FO were to have kept track of it so far by going through each game and counting all his INTs from tipped passes and hail mary's, as well as his dropped INTs...

Week 1
-Literally threw a pick to Ryan Kerrigan on a SCREEN PASS lmfao!

Actual INTs: 1 Tipped INTs: 0 Dropped INTs: 0 Adjusted INTs: 1

Week 2
-Threw a pick thanks to throwing a pass to a receiver that was clearly being bracketed by Quintin Mikell. lol shouldn't someone who's related to Peyton be better at reading coverages?

Actual INTs: 2 Tipped INTs: 0 Dropped INTs: 0 Adjusted INTs: 2

Week 5
-Threw a pick to Earl Thomas despite the fact that Thomas was clearly bracketing the intended receiver. Another misread coverage from Eli.
-I think this happened towards the end of the first half on third down, but anyway he threw a pass where some CB jumped right in front of the ball, but Eli was lucky that he dropped it.
-Threw another pass in which the receiver was being bracketed by the CB and Safety this time to Cam Chancellor. Of course this time he was lucky that instead of intercepting the pass Chancellor merely tipped the ball in the air as Victor Cruz bailed Eli out with a miraculous catch that later went for a TD. It's hilarious how a QB can make such a bad throw yet end up with a 60-70 yard TD pass to his credit.
-lmao pick 6 to Brandon Browner on a potential game winning drive. Nice choke Eli.
-Another pick on the ensuing drive when the Giants still had a chance to come back. Literally choked twice in 2 minutes.

Actual INTs: 5 Tipped INTs: 0 Dropped INTs: 2 Adjusted INTs: 7

Week 6
-Eli throws a pass right at Leodis McKelvin which would have lost the game for the Giants had McKelvin been able to come up with the pick like any competent CB would have. Nice choke for the second straight week.

Actual INTs: 5 Tipped INTs: 0 Dropped INTs: 3 Adjusted INTs: 8

Week 8
-On the Giants last drive of the game when they were trying to close out the game after Cruz handed Eli a game winning TD pass, Eli throws a ball right at a CB (I think it was that Jimmy Wilson guy who was starting in place of Vontae Davis), but he drops it. Had he came up with the pick like any competent CB would have he would have set the Dolphins up in good field position to win the game. Even without the pick, the incompletion still led to a 3 and out, giving the Dolphins another chance to score. Eli is lucky the Dolphins had MATT MOORE as their QB. Nice choke for the third straight week.

Actual INTs: 5 Tipped INTs: 0 Dropped INTs: 4 Adjusted INTs: 9

Conclusion
Eli has clearly benefited from luck so far this season, and based on said luck he should have 9 INTs in 7 games which would put him on pace for another 20+ INT season. Look for Eli to fall back down to earth over the rest of the season.
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#2Delirious_BeardPosted 11/1/2011 10:19:52 PM
Literally better than Romo.
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#3sextronbot(Topic Creator)Posted 11/1/2011 10:21:45 PM

From: Delirious_Beard | #002
Literally better than Romo.


I said literally nothing at all about Romo in this topic, but I guess some people are too insecure to resist comparing the two each time the other is brought up.
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#4all_that_juicePosted 11/1/2011 10:23:47 PM
Yeah I like the idea, but that would take way too much work.
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#5TheGoldenStatePosted 11/1/2011 10:28:40 PM
utterly meaningless when applied to one player
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#6Delirious_BeardPosted 11/1/2011 10:37:51 PM
sextronbot posted...
From: Delirious_Beard | #002
Literally better than Romo.
I said literally nothing at all about Romo in this topic, but I guess some people are too insecure to resist comparing the two each time the other is brought up.


It's amusing that you're calling others insecure when you're the one typing up paragraphs and devoting time to try and make Eli look bad.

Butters topic.
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#7AnacondaBloodPosted 11/1/2011 10:43:39 PM
The counterpart to this topic would all the horrible passes caught by Cruz that make Eli look good. Throwing into double coverage an expecting a circus catch every time says more about the WR, and even less about Eli.
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#8sextronbot(Topic Creator)Posted 11/1/2011 10:44:38 PM

From: TheGoldenState | #005
utterly meaningless when applied to one player


As this chart from last year shows, adjusted INTs will balance out across the league, with some have higher Adjusted INT rates than their actual INT rates, and others with lower rates.

http://fo3.footballoutsiders.com/extra-points/2010/fo-mailbag-dropped-interceptions
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#9sextronbot(Topic Creator)Posted 11/1/2011 11:00:19 PM

From: Delirious_Beard | #006
sextronbot posted...
From: Delirious_Beard | #002
Literally better than Romo.
I said literally nothing at all about Romo in this topic, but I guess some people are too insecure to resist comparing the two each time the other is brought up.


It's amusing that you're calling others insecure when you're the one typing up paragraphs and devoting time to try and make Eli look bad.

Butters topic.


Supporting your argument on a message board so that people can comment and provide constructive criticism makes someone insecure? lol no I'm pretty sure that's what a message board is for. What a message board isn't for is trolling, which is what you're doing by trying to derail my topic by bringing up a QB that I never even spoke of. Such a trolling tactic displays insecurity because trying to change the subject proves that you've been dwelling on that particular subject.

From: AnacondaBlood | #007
The counterpart to this topic would all the horrible passes caught by Cruz that make Eli look good. Throwing into double coverage an expecting a circus catch every time says more about the WR, and even less about Eli.


I literally had to read this 7 times in order to understand what you were trying to say.
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#10AgentRebornPosted 11/1/2011 11:17:38 PM
Your analysis is off on a couple of them

If you watch the play that Mikell got the pick, it wasn't from a bad read. Manningham split the coverage and had his man beat deep. Eli underthrew his pass and Mikell got the easy pick. If Eli throws the ball down the sideline instead of the wobbly pass that sailed toward the middle of the field, its an easy TD. At worst he overthrows Manningham. Not that it makes a ton of difference

Same with the Thomas play iirc. The read wasn't necessarily an incorrect one, just a poor throw
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