This is a split board - You can return to the Split List for other boards.

What are the chances of someone unboxing two unusuals in a row?

#1alpha___omegaPosted 9/3/2011 12:28:43 PM
I'm terrible with complicated probability, but if there was a 1/100 chance of unboxing an unusual, there would be a 1/100 chance of unboxing an unusual straight after, giving a 1/10,000 chance of two unusuals in a row. But also they could get an unusual before, which just confuses things for me. Anyway, I'm sure it's possible, do you think/have heard of anyone who has done this?
#2KeverlastingPosted 9/3/2011 12:31:47 PM
50%

either you get it, or you dont
---
http://i.imgur.com/sjEvM.png http://i.imgur.com/KuaTA.png
http://i.imgur.com/q0N8t.png http://i.imgur.com/tiY6i.png
#3BakedStuffEtcPosted 9/3/2011 12:45:31 PM
1/100 + 1/100 = 2/100 = 1/50
---
http://i.imgur.com/6M0wD.png
#4XanderKagePosted 9/3/2011 12:45:45 PM
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
#5MajordeCoverlyPosted 9/3/2011 12:46:19 PM
Joint probability is always ridiculously messy. Just taking singular events as they are is much simpler.

And there is always that 50/50 yes/no situation.
#6OmfgitsBlahPosted 9/3/2011 12:52:59 PM(edited)
It's 1/10k for any given two unboxes.

The probability trolling in this topic is rage-inducing, and therefore successful.
---
Do the impossible, see the invisible, Row, Row, Fight the power!
Touch the untouchable, Break the unbreakable, Row, Row, Fight the power!
#7BluePaladin25Posted 9/3/2011 12:56:09 PM
The chance of getting an unusual from EACH box
1/100 = 1%

The chance of getting an unusual from EITHER box
2 * (1/100) = 2/100 = 1/50 = 2%

The chance of getting an unusual from BOTH boxes
(1/100) ^ 2 = 1/10,000 = .01%
#8alpha___omega(Topic Creator)Posted 9/3/2011 1:09:17 PM
If it was just x2 for either box, if you kept unboxing the probability would be more than one.
#9solarlensPosted 9/3/2011 1:12:19 PM
My brother got 2 unusual weapons from boxes in a row. Hate him so much
---
Kif: It's an emergency, sir.
Zapp Brannigan: Come back when it's a catastrophe.
#10XanderKagePosted 9/3/2011 1:13:32 PM

From: solarlens | #009
My brother got 2 unusual weapons from boxes in a row. Hate him so much


It's Strange weapons, and you really need better reasons to "hate" people.
---
http://i112.photobucket.com/albums/n194/XanderKage/Bond-mythbusters.jpg