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How long does it take to farm Shadowfang or Assassin's Blade?

#11adjlPosted 12/8/2008 9:17:37 PM
What's the exact drop rate?

Somewhere between 0% and 0.1%. Standard world drop rate, only limited to a level 25 instance. Exact numbers tend to be unknown, because there haven't been enough drops of it to make a statistically valid estimate of probability.
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"Your" is possessive. "You're" is a contraction of "You are."
It's not that complicated. Get it right.
#12PhrenzZephyrPosted 12/8/2008 9:18:19 PM
I think this post from wowhead sums it up.

Your right about one thing, it does drop off any mob that's level 21+, but you forgot one thing:
With patch 2.3 most SFK mobs have been nerfed to level 18-20; only 5 mobs are still level 21+:
Odo the Blindwatcher
Fenrus the Devourer
Wolf Master Nandos
Archmage Arugal
Deathsworn Captain (rare-spawn)

All 5 of these bosses have a .01% chance to drop ONE rare level 19-20 BoE item.
There are 5 rare BoE items that they could drop:
Gloomshroud Armor
Necrology Robes
Duskbringer
Assassin's Blade
Shadowfang

So, since each boss level 21+ has a .01% to drop ONE of the above items, and there are 5 bosses (including the rare-spawn boss), there is a .05% chance that ONE of the above items drops during a run. Since there is a 1-in-5 chance (20%) that the item dropped is Shadowfang, the chance that Shadowfang drops AT ALL is:

(.05%) * (20%) = .01% (roughly 1 Shadowfang every 10000 runs!!!)

Without the rare-spawn boss, the chances are reduced:

(.04%) * (20%) = .008% (roughly 1 Shadowfang every 12500 runs!!!)

So in conclusion: Shadowfang is pretty damn rare, with about a .009% drop rate. But you knew that, right?


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Obviously it was the most epic bubble hearth of all time. - FalcownPAUNCH on pre-WotLK Dalaran
#13Meowgoocat(Topic Creator)Posted 12/8/2008 9:21:15 PM
it does drop off any mob that's level 21+

Seriously? I thought it dropped off of any mob in the instance...
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Everyone learns faster on fire
#14brawrdyPosted 12/8/2008 9:23:41 PM
Was pretty sure it used to be the sons of arugal only <_< But oh well, so yeah its not likely to farm it dude.
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can you realy play with your friends and talk to them over the enter net? cuz that would rule ~ tVencenTt
#15adjlPosted 12/8/2008 9:30:41 PM
So, since each boss level 21+ has a .01% to drop ONE of the above items, and there are 5 bosses (including the rare-spawn boss), there is a .05% chance that ONE of the above items drops during a run.

Actually, that's wrong. To properly calculate the probability of an event occurring in a given number of tries, you have to take the chance that it doesn't occur each time and multiply them, then subtract that value from 1. So in actuality the chance to get an item is 1-(0.999^5)=0.00499.

Granted, in this example, it really doesn't matter because we're dealing with tiny numbers anyway. But it's a common fallacy in dealing with probability. A 50% chance doesn't mean you have a 100% chance after two tries, it means you have a 75% chance. But where this does come into play in this case is here:

(.05%) * (20%) = .01% (roughly 1 Shadowfang every 10000 runs!!!)

You are not in any way guaranteed to get a Shadowfang after 10000 runs. In fact, 10000 runs is defined probability-wise as the number of attempts it takes for you to have had a 60% chance to get it. Almost half of the people who make 10000 runs still won't have it. For it to properly average out to 1 every 10000 runs, you'd have to take considerably more samples. It'd be much more reasonable to expect to have 100 after a million runs, or a thousand after ten million. but even then your numbers are so relatively small that statistical error will skew the values a bit.

The general point is the same, though: Don't farm Shadowfang. Buy it if you want to twink, go level if you want it for a character you're leveling.
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"Your" is possessive. "You're" is a contraction of "You are."
It's not that complicated. Get it right.
#16adjlPosted 12/8/2008 9:32:12 PM
And I just noticed that that should have been 0.9999, not 0.999, for a result of 0.000499, rather than 0.00499. Hooray for being off by an order of magnitude.
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"Your" is possessive. "You're" is a contraction of "You are."
It's not that complicated. Get it right.
#17Meowgoocat(Topic Creator)Posted 12/8/2008 9:50:02 PM
Except I've been spamming WTB Shadowfang and/or Assassin's blade in trade for months, as well as checking the ah every time I'm nearby. >_<
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Everyone learns faster on fire
#18adjlPosted 12/8/2008 9:54:58 PM
Probably has to do with everyone else recognizing that farming it is a waste of time.
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"Your" is possessive. "You're" is a contraction of "You are."
It's not that complicated. Get it right.