I support the Empire, but I gotta give this one to Ulfric. Tullius has more experience, but he comes off as the strategist type, not the fighter. Not only that, but I think Ulfric might be younger. Plus, Ulfric can use The Voice. As stated before, if it were a battle fought with armies at their command, Tullius would win. One-on-one, however...
Eh, I wouldn't be surprised if Tullius took it without Shouts.
In a coat of gold or a coat of red, a lion still has claws, And mine are long and sharp, my lord, as long and sharp as yours.
Ulfric was captured and going to get beheaded until Alduin inadvertently saved his rear. If he couldn't handle a small ambush with only a handful of guards I doubt he could handle a general. But stat wise I'd say Ulfric, just to be fair.
Just on the way to the inside of the keep (where you get your hands unbound) I counted over 30 imperials. That's like 6-1 odds.
Many of whom were mages. Lesser ward blocks shouts. Even the piddling stagger Ulfric's thu'um causes.
Why would you imply all those Imperials were part of the ambush? To me they looked like they were stationed there. We can't know for sure how many Imperials ambushed Ulfric, but I think it's safe to say the numbers were at least even. And Ulfric had The Voice on his side, so I'd say he had the advantage, yet he allowed himself to be captured. I'm sticking by my Ulfric vote, but I still want to point out how dumb and/or weak a fighter/commander Ulfric was/is.