Media Create Week 46.. A nickel ain't worth a dime anymore.

#61McMarblesPosted 11/21/2012 12:07:01 PM
deathpapaya posted...
HugsAllAround posted...
Vita outsold Wii and WiiU combined. Vita wins.

Speaking of which, WiiU is doing abysmal in Japan. Sales are so low that they aren't even showing up on the chart. Pathetic.


Pretty sure the Wiiu isn't out in Japan yet...


That'sthejoke.gif
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#62blunderminePosted 11/21/2012 12:10:44 PM
SSJ4CHRIS posted...
Kitt Thrust posted...
man phan is my alt... it's been a tough week for me...


Stop trying to keep the flame war fanned and worry about recovering from Sandy if you still have issues with that. No offense, but you'd think being so recently without power, you'd appreciate that just having stuff left is bigger than worrying about which game company is selling better.


Well people were asking who's butthurt.

I found the guy everyone! He's over here!
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So if Nintendo changed the name of the Wii - U, would they be pulling a U-Wii?
#63Natureboy99Posted 11/21/2012 12:12:42 PM(edited)
blundermine posted...


You really need to take some econ classes.


Why is it that everyone who wants to add oh so much weight to these numbers has Nintendo stuff in their sig? Why don't you explain to us why this weeks sales in Japan mean that Vita will not be profitable in 2 more years. Please use everything you learned from your econ classes.
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Voted class of 2079 most likely to abuse time travel
#64blunderminePosted 11/21/2012 12:50:13 PM(edited)
Natureboy99 posted...
blundermine posted...


You really need to take some econ classes.


Why is it that everyone who wants to add oh so much weight to these numbers has Nintendo stuff in their sig? Why don't you explain to us why this weeks sales in Japan mean that Vita will not be profitable in 2 more years. Please use everything you learned from your econ classes.


I've had my sig for like a year now. I don't change it much. It's just a joke, do you get it?

Ok here is how it works. When they say the Vita will be profitable in 3 years, that means that everything they earned off of hardware and software sales will have covered all of the R&D, manufacturing, advertising and any other expenses associated with the Vita to that point. At that point, every new unit they move is profit for them, barring any setbacks like the network hack they had a few years ago.

Now all of the stuff I mentioned costs billions (plural). Now let's be generous and say they make $25 per hardware unit and $10 per software unit sold in revenue (though with the volume there software this thing is selling this is a stretch). If they sell 100,000 hardware units and 400,000 software units worldwide every week for 3 years, they make just over 1 billion in revenue. Thus they're more than likely still losing money overall.

Japan was thought to be there biggest market, probably account for 30% of the Vita's sales. Factoring in the holiday seasonality, they'll be averaging about 20,000 units.

This is nowhere near where they it to be.

Look at the numbers Nintendo is moving. They're still struggling to turn a profit. How do you think Sony is going to getting outsold 10:1?
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So if Nintendo changed the name of the Wii - U, would they be pulling a U-Wii?
#65LHS_2012Posted 11/21/2012 12:26:57 PM
Natureboy99 posted...
blundermine posted...


You really need to take some econ classes.


Why is it that everyone who wants to add oh so much weight to these numbers has Nintendo stuff in their sig? Why don't you explain to us why this weeks sales in Japan mean that Vita will not be profitable in 2 more years. Please use everything you learned from your econ classes.


Because Sony's 3 year time frame was estimated by their then projection of sales. If the continuously fail to meet their sales projections (which they are), it will take longer than 3 years to be profitable.
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#66SagadegoPosted 11/21/2012 12:43:08 PM
SSJ4CHRIS posted...
Kitt Thrust posted...
man phan is my alt... it's been a tough week for me...


Stop trying to keep the flame war fanned and worry about recovering from Sandy if you still have issues with that. No offense, but you'd think being so recently without power, you'd appreciate that just having stuff left is bigger than worrying about which game company is selling better.


quit being a troll.
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Why did Nintendo rip off digimon? demondog666
#67krazykillerkowPosted 11/21/2012 12:47:44 PM
Well it passed the PSP.

Guess thats a start.
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That don't bother me, I don't exist.-carsauce on the subject of vitasurance
#68OMG_A_PONYPosted 11/21/2012 12:52:22 PM
blundermine posted...
SSJ4CHRIS posted...
Kitt Thrust posted...
man phan is my alt... it's been a tough week for me...


Stop trying to keep the flame war fanned and worry about recovering from Sandy if you still have issues with that. No offense, but you'd think being so recently without power, you'd appreciate that just having stuff left is bigger than worrying about which game company is selling better.


Well people were asking who's butthurt.

I found the guy everyone! He's over here!


you're right! hey everyone he found him!
#69Natureboy99Posted 11/21/2012 1:40:08 PM
blundermine posted...
Natureboy99 posted...
blundermine posted...


You really need to take some econ classes.


Why is it that everyone who wants to add oh so much weight to these numbers has Nintendo stuff in their sig? Why don't you explain to us why this weeks sales in Japan mean that Vita will not be profitable in 2 more years. Please use everything you learned from your econ classes.


I've had my sig for like a year now. I don't change it much. It's just a joke, do you get it?

Ok here is how it works. When they say the Vita will be profitable in 3 years, that means that everything they earned off of hardware and software sales will have covered all of the R&D, manufacturing, advertising and any other expenses associated with the Vita to that point. At that point, every new unit they move is profit for them, barring any setbacks like the network hack they had a few years ago.

Now all of the stuff I mentioned costs billions (plural). Now let's be generous and say they make $25 per hardware unit and $10 per software unit sold in revenue (though with the volume there software this thing is selling this is a stretch). If they sell 100,000 hardware units and 400,000 software units worldwide every week for 3 years, they make just over 1 billion in revenue. Thus they're more than likely still losing money overall.

Japan was thought to be there biggest market, probably account for 30% of the Vita's sales. Factoring in the holiday seasonality, they'll be averaging about 20,000 units.

This is nowhere near where they it to be.

Look at the numbers Nintendo is moving. They're still struggling to turn a profit. How do you think Sony is going to getting outsold 10:1?


Dude you are pulling all sorts of numbers and figures out of the air:

1)Sonys investment in Vita so far
2)hardware profit
3)You forgot dev kit fees
4)software profit (which BTW digital game, DLC sales aren't being tracked publicly)
5)Japan being the biggest market (check the real numbers, Vita sold about 60K worldwide last week, BEFORE black friday)

The question remains, why does a single weeks sales figures for hardware units sold in Japan have all the say in Vitas success? The answer is, it doesn't. It's a very, very tiny part of the overall story, a story that most people don't know the facts about yet act like they know everything. I'm not saying Vita is doing great. I'm not saying it will turn profit in 3 years. I'm saying that people outside of Sony have no say in the matter, because they don't have the numbers. Vita sold 13K units this week in Japan. Thats about all the meaning you can extrapolate. Oh and thats less than 3DS. Less than GS3, IP5, and sliced bread too.
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Voted class of 2079 most likely to abuse time travel
#70blunderminePosted 11/21/2012 2:05:44 PM
Natureboy99 posted...
Dude you are pulling all sorts of numbers and figures out of the air:

1)Sonys investment in Vita so far
2)hardware profit
3)You forgot dev kit fees
4)software profit (which BTW digital game, DLC sales aren't being tracked publicly)
5)Japan being the biggest market (check the real numbers, Vita sold about 60K worldwide last week, BEFORE black friday)

The question remains, why does a single weeks sales figures for hardware units sold in Japan have all the say in Vitas success? The answer is, it doesn't. It's a very, very tiny part of the overall story, a story that most people don't know the facts about yet act like they know everything. I'm not saying Vita is doing great. I'm not saying it will turn profit in 3 years. I'm saying that people outside of Sony have no say in the matter, because they don't have the numbers. Vita sold 13K units this week in Japan. Thats about all the meaning you can extrapolate. Oh and thats less than 3DS. Less than GS3, IP5, and sliced bread too.


1) It's no secret that R&D for systems is enormous. If you're going to argue that it + designing the factories and advertising is not in the mutli-billion range then there's really no point in talking to you.
2) The Vita's components cost ~$160. They're selling bundles for $199. You do the math.
3) If you're going to start bringing in relatively insignificant things like dev kit fees then you also need consider what they're paying to 3rd party developers for exclusives. I'd be shocked if the balance here is positive for Sony. Even if it is, they're not making hundreds of millions of dev kit fees.
4) It's true down loaded numbers aren't posted, but at the end of a handheld's lifespan, the attachment rate is 6:1 for a highly successful handheld. I was giving it the benefit of a sustained 4:1 rate for the first 3 years which is more than generous. As of now the 3DS is 2.4:1 and it is moving software much more efficiently than the Vita.
5) Japan is supposed to be the biggest market because it was for the PSP. Unless something goes really wrong like it did with the Vita, these sorts of market trends don't normally change. Japan is also where most of its software comes out, so if no one in Japan is buying huge swathes of the Vita's library, then they're loosing even more money on the development of those games.

I assumed 100,000 units a week in my last post. That's averaged across the entire year. If for 45 weeks it sells 60,000 and 7 weeks it moves 400,000, it's moving ~105,000 per week on average. Even that's a stretch.
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So if Nintendo changed the name of the Wii - U, would they be pulling a U-Wii?