My current prediction for the future of console gaming

#1sejan12Posted 11/28/2012 10:48:09 AM
Nintendo's hand is played. I expect sometime between now and the end of January a fair bit of new game announcements for Wii U and 3DS to hold us over until e3 2013, but little more. It's possible they may have a decent game planned for late spring or early summer, but I predict that Nintendo will hold its big guns until e3. Expect Nintendo to have some major announcements for us at e3 to keep from being completely overlooked with an official announcement of a new console from one or both of their competitors.

Microsoft will take one of two strategies. First, they may go all out and make a crazy powerful machine with a high price point with the goal of claiming the so called "core" gamers. Second, (I believe more likely) Microsoft will play a little safer this coming generation. MS has been pushing towards the "casual" gamers very hard for the past couple years. They've given us more announcements about media features and the Kinect than anything lately and I doubt their investment in those areas will be kicked to the curb with a crazy high price point on the console itself. I expect a $300-$400 console. It will be a fair bit stronger than the Wii U due to the lack of the expensive controller, but not as much as some people seem to expect. There will, however, be a "hardcore" bundle with overly expensive storage and a fancy color or skin for an additional $100. XBox live will either be made free or given a new justification for the price. Whatever path they take, MS cannot keep charging for the current XBox live system as is without some major change when both Nintendo and Sony are offering free online play. I suspect that MS will free up online play, but make most of the other features premium.

Sony is the hardest to predict out of the three. I see three possible options. First, Sony emphasizes the PS3's 10 year lifespan. They would have to push the Vita super hard and stress the "Wii U Like" abilities of these two as a combo. With this strategy, expect a PS3 + Vita Combo pack in the coming months. Second, Sony plays it super safe with their new hardware. They release a console that post a profit from the get go or at least a profit with the first sale of software. The specs beat the Wii U and they would emphasize it, but they aren't all that much more powerful. I see this option as likely. Sony's credit rating was just lowered to junk and their investors are going to have a difficult time justifying another launch following the path of the struggling Vita. Third, Sony goes all in and announces either a super powerful console that puts the competition to shame or a console at a very low pricepoint that is simply too good of a deal to pass up. High risk with a high potential reward would be the goal. I find this strategy difficult to imagine because even a small failure would potentially put Sony out of the gaming business. Whatever path they take, the PSVita must either receive some huge game announcements next year or a big price cut on the console and the memory. The best scenario would be both. Without one of these two or both, the Vita will flounder into non-existence.
#2P_A_N_D_A_M_A_NPosted 11/28/2012 11:01:10 AM
Good read. Do keep in mind though, that there is still a plethora of games due before March for the Wii U.
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Currently Playing: Shenmue2, NSMB2
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#31shadetail1Posted 11/28/2012 11:07:07 AM
Reasonable predictions. I've also felt that it's pretty likely the 8th gen would be a fight of features rather than power. Sony and MS both tried the power route and, financially, it didn't work out for them at all.

That said, I'm really quite worried that Sony hasn't learned that lesson. Some recent and very well researched articles have indicated that Sony is still beholden to the prima dona engineers who were responsible for the PS3 being an over-priced disaster.

http://www.notenoughshaders.com/2012/09/08/the-ten-year-decline-of-sony/
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Religion is like spaghetti: either stiff and fragile, or wet and limp.
#4GreenMage7Posted 11/28/2012 11:07:20 AM
Microsoft's plan has been outlined for a while now, whether or not people want to believe the internal document it has all come true so far. Not only that, dev systems have been out for a while now (I believe someone tried or had success selling one eBay) and people have approximated what the specs will be. No idea about Sony, but the fact is they are hurting and need a home run.

One thing I do know is that Microsoft is very likely to have a lot more "free to play" support (aka micro-transaction gouging). And of course there will probably be increased functionality with Kinect 2.0, SmartGlass, and connecting with Windows 8 and Windows Phone. I wouldn't be surprised if they decided to use the same controllers though, theirs are pretty popular even with PC Gamers.
#5GreenMage7Posted 11/28/2012 11:09:38 AM
1shadetail1 posted...
Reasonable predictions. I've also felt that it's pretty likely the 8th gen would be a fight of features rather than power. Sony and MS both tried the power route and, financially, it didn't work out for them at all.

That said, I'm really quite worried that Sony hasn't learned that lesson. Some recent and very well researched articles have indicated that Sony is still beholden to the prima dona engineers who were responsible for the PS3 being an over-priced disaster.

http://www.notenoughshaders.com/2012/09/08/the-ten-year-decline-of-sony/


Financially, Microsoft is probably ahead of Nintendo right now with their gaming division. They sell the most third-party titles, they get $60 a year from a huge portion of their consumer base from XBox Live, and are basically the kings of console digital downloads. Not selling as much hardware as Nintendo isn't a big deal when you make up for it in just about every other area.
#6EoinPosted 11/28/2012 11:21:36 AM
sejan12 posted...
Microsoft will take one of two strategies.

Current (feasible) rumours say that Microsoft are likely to take two strategies next generation - with a low-cost set-top box console that integrates Kinect, is compatible with Windows 8 RT apps, and is branded as an Xbox and has access to the Xbox services and uses a Live account, alongside another console, in a more traditional form, costing more money, with more power.
#7P_A_N_D_A_M_A_NPosted 11/28/2012 5:24:07 PM
Bump
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Currently Playing: Shenmue2, NSMB2
http://youtu.be/X21mJh6j9i4
#8SuperShyGuy9000Posted 11/28/2012 5:29:49 PM
Good
#9BufkusPosted 11/28/2012 5:40:07 PM
Ouya will beat them all.

People are still forgetting that we're living in a global recession and the userbase that is willing to spend $500+ on video games has shrunken dramatically. That recession is not going to end over the next 5-6 years.
#10Lord_ValkirePosted 11/28/2012 5:51:37 PM
Honestly I was expecting a troll topic, but a good read, I think you have pretty good predictions for what we can guess now
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