A rational argument why Nintendo will not survive to 2015.

#1Synbios459Posted 12/18/2012 9:51:37 PM
It's a simple equation.

1. Mothers will hate the WiiU that adds an expensive glass screened eminently breakable 'master' controller guaranteed to incite hard fought 'keep away' battles among siblings/friends when more than one child is playing on top of the usual clutter of Nintendo controllers that get stepped on, lost, broken and need replacement. The 'master' controller is also big and heavy enough to do some damage when used as an offensive weapon in a fight for control. The Xbox Kinect was the fastest selling electronics device ever for a reason - mothers ... nothing to fight over, step on, break, get lost, need replacing and clutter up the place. That's something mothers everywhere can fall deeply in love with.

2. The WiiU with it's learning curve complexity and comparatively high cost will turn off what remains of the new 'casual' gaming demographic the Wii brought into existence that long ago put their Wii's in a drawer or closet and now game on their smart phones or tablets. The WiiU offers that demographic zilch. Which is what WiiU sales will be to that demographic.

3. The hard core gamers are self explanatory. The WiiU will only capture a very small percentage of those with the Xbox Next and PS4 just around the corner.

4. That leaves the core Nintendo fan boys who will buy whatever Nintendo puts out pushing sales for the first few months and then start tapering off as those unsatiated fan boy numbers steadily diminish. They'll diminish even faster if Microsoft presents some mind blowing Kinect 2 capabilities during the January shows creating a firestorm of interest, after which WiiU sales will fall off a cliff and all eyes and attention turn to the next gen consoles from Microsoft and Sony. Holiday season 2013 will not provide a respite as anyone still on the fence will succumb to the siren call of the Xbox 720 or PS4. If the PS4 slips into 2014 Microsoft will be happy to offer both a cheap TV/Casual gaming console or a more expensive full on hard core gaming console both affordable with low down, extended contracts pricing and both offering mind blowing Kinect 2 capabilities and experiences.

The WiiU was a gargantuan face plant created by Nintendo's extremely conservative and hubristic top brass in Japan. It's handheld hardware will steadily lose ground to smartphones and tablets, including an Xbox tablet strongly rumored to be in development and launching next year.

Nintendo's console is toast as will be very clear by this time next year when it's weekly sales are counted in the low five digits and it's stock will be mercilessly hammered. Nintendo is currently operating in the red to the tune of half a billion U.S. dollars a year, which stream of red ink will turn into a raging river as WiiU hardware and software sales dry up.

It doesn't take a crystal ball to discern that in two or three years Nintendo's will be out of the hardware business and be busy leveraging it's IP to make games for other systems ... if it survives at all and it's IP isn't bought up by someone else.

Keep in mind how FAST things move these days. Four years ago Nokia and RIM ruled the smartphone market. Nintendo coming out with an updated console in 2014 in 2015 is moot. Even if there was some magnitude 8 shake-up in the boardroom (hopefully nowhere near Fukushima, unleashing 50 Chernobyl's on the world for the next several centuries), Nintendo has no chance of ever catching up with Microsoft and Sony.
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#2Synbios459(Topic Creator)Posted 12/18/2012 9:51:43 PM
For that matter Sony, in it's ever more precarious financial position, will be hard pressed to stay in the game against what is looking to be a Microsoft next gen juggernaut with a two tier hardware offering, more powerful console, better ecosystem, Kinect 2 and a low down/extended contract pricing model that allows pretty much anyone to afford to buy into their gaming ecosystem.

If Nintendo survives at all it will be as a game developer for other systems. If it's board continues it's hubristic ways, Nintendo will likely cease to exist as a separate corporate entity.
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#3dennis941012Posted 12/18/2012 9:57:12 PM
only one facing financial death is sony
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#4_FalstaffPosted 12/18/2012 9:59:02 PM
So sure of yourself.
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#5TalentedMPosted 12/18/2012 10:02:25 PM(edited)
Tablet gaming will never take over the handheld market and will be a niche thing. Also judging by Sonys past and its current present I wouldn't expect anything next holiday so really IMO I see it being a more Nintendo/Xbox sort of year next year with Sony trying to make some money back on their current products.

I understand a lot of people think that the Wii U will suffer, but from everything that is being announced and everything that was previously announced they planned on being completely different with this one from the start. They plan on getting more 3rd party support and getting their store running. They are getting DLC and are trying to get them to accept them.

Really it does fall on them to take in the Wii U, I have 100% faith that they will survive past 2015 without issues. I wouldn't be a fanboy as I am part of the "PC master race", but I respect Nintendo for making quality products and at least trying to shake up the gaming community by offering new/different ways to play games that other companies didn't even bother thinking of.

If it werent for them we would all be stuck with dual shock controller knockoffs and the same old stuff as before. It is bad enough the industry thinks it is ok to keep pumping out games with 2's and 3's or even different series of games that do the same thing and label them as new.

Just my opinion, your argument isn't as rational as it is opinionated. I don't see the controller being a weapon for kids to beat eachother to death with and parents being afraid of that. The wiimotes could be thrown through TV's... It is even called a nunchuck! I mean... you call your controller a weapon by name.

Just... No.
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#6rockusPosted 12/18/2012 10:02:31 PM
I don't think you know what an equation is.
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#7Banjo2553Posted 12/18/2012 10:02:59 PM
They've lasted for 50 years, I doubt that they will suddenly fall three years from now with how well off they are.
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#8OrangeCrush980Posted 12/18/2012 10:04:05 PM
One word: 3DS
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#9silverbulltPosted 12/18/2012 10:07:58 PM
I just don't see Nintendo offering competitive "Services" any time soon nor did they plan the infrastructure for it.

You go on XBL and to a lesser extent PSN and it's just so easy to spend additional dollar on value. Nintendo has none of that right now nor is it moving at a pace quick enough to address the gap.

You argue, Nintendo just released, they will improve. No ofense but if they wanted to be competitive they need to be more forward thinking then they are now. Microsoft don't mess around when they get their "visions" they go full throttle. Sony don't play around either although they do lack long term foresight.

Nintendo likes to move at it's own pace. Thus the term irrelevant in this fast changing climate.
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#10FayeLadyPosted 12/18/2012 10:13:20 PM
No one has ever defeated an incumbent by being just a little bit better. The biggest upsets we've seen to date in the gaming world are the Original Playstation and the Original Wii, both approaches worked because they were a lot more accessible than their competition. It may be hard to see who will take this generation, but it wont be hard to see why.
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