What will happen next generation?

#1digiblasterPosted 4/3/2013 4:18:14 PM
Developers have been passing on the Wii U for some time now, and there's almost a universal reason - profit.

Bear in mind that as a company, they are more than entitled to do that. And it makes sense - games these days cost millions to develop, and when there are only about 3 million Wii U owners, they likely won't recoup their expenses by making a Wii U version too.

So I pose you this question:

What happens when the other next generation consoles come out?

Are people expecting an install base of 30+ million users?

Companies are suffering financially from the 360 and PS3 even today, even with all the console owners. New consoles mean higher dev costs (in order to use the full potential of the new hardware), but with less potential buyers, what do they think will happen?

Gaming is struggling. So many studios are losing money faster than they can deal with, because their games aren't selling well enough. But more and more developers attempt to push the graphical boundary. Games feature hours upon hours of high detail cinematics. And what happens? It costs them a fortune to make.

It's pretty easy for even the simplest minds to understand - if you spend more money making a game than you make from said game, you're doing it wrong. Don't blame the console creators for their own shortcomings. The PS4 and Nextbox will be in the same situation as the Wii U is right now.

Let's take a quick look at something that happened not too long ago - the whole 'Activision being pissed at Nintendo fans for poor sales of CoD'. For a start, the adoption rate of CoD Black Ops II wasn't too far off the adoption rates on 360 and PS3 (I believe it was 7% compared to 10-11%). Given this is a new console, you could argue that more people would have bought it as there weren't many games, but there are likely some casual gamers that bought a Wii U, people that are definitely not the target audience for such a game. But I digress.

I don't know exactly how large the budgets are for those sorts of games, but a big game like CoD will have a lot of money invested in it. So they'd need a lot of sales to recoup their losses. Let's say that between them, the other next gen consoles sell 10 million units before the next CoD game (which is very ambitious since they may not be out by then). Even if everyone that owns those consoles buys CoD, they'd sell less than half as many units as they did with the current gen consoles. This is a problem.

So what will developers do? Do they ignore the next gen consoles until they've sold better? Do they carry on making version across both generations for a few years until they sell better? Do they lower the budgets for the games, but in doing so not get the most out of the new consoles? Or, the far more likely - the price of games rises, screwing over the consumers as a result.

It's hard to say, since we know little to nothing about the new consoles. They may be very well priced, without a huge power leap, meaning dev costs don't rise too much. It may be feasible. But, from what we do know, it certainly looks like they want to push the boundaries further.

From time to time, depending on where you look, there's talk of the industry crashing again. It's too soon to tell, but I think it may happen sooner than you think.

TL;DR: Games cost lots of money, nobody gets enough money, gaming go bye-bye
---
Yeah, that's a problem games had back then. You actually had to get good at them. - Mctias
#2zender1999Posted 4/3/2013 4:25:01 PM
this is what will happen
1 wiiu will sell extremely well, thanks to first party nintendo games
2 nintendo will make a lot of profit, like they always do with the overall life of their consoles

3 a lot of third party publishers/devs will close down and lose a lot of money
4 ps4 and new xbox will have a really slow start, cancelling each other out, third party game sales will suffer the most

5 either sony or ms will go out of the console business
#3SS4_NamreppivPosted 4/3/2013 4:31:20 PM
From: zender1999 | #002
this is what will happen
1 wiiu will sell extremely well, thanks to first party nintendo games
2 nintendo will make a lot of profit, like they always do with the overall life of their consoles

3 a lot of third party publishers/devs will close down and lose a lot of money
4 ps4 and new xbox will have a really slow start, cancelling each other out, third party game sales will suffer the most

5 either sony or ms will go out of the console business



This^^^
---
"I tried one of your dishes once. I truly believed a part of my soul died."~Dunban
#4rafiiillaPosted 4/3/2013 4:41:36 PM
SS4_Namreppiv posted...
From: zender1999 | #002
this is what will happen
1 wiiu will sell extremely well, thanks to first party nintendo games
2 nintendo will make a lot of profit, like they always do with the overall life of their consoles

3 a lot of third party publishers/devs will close down and lose a lot of money
4 ps4 and new xbox will have a really slow start, cancelling each other out, third party game sales will suffer the most

5 either sony or ms will go out of the console business



This^^^


Agree
---
NNID: rafiiilla
http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lk3xxrWmyk1qj8d3jo1_500.gif
#5Dr_FacerPosted 4/3/2013 4:41:42 PM
zender1999 posted...
this is what will happen
1 wiiu will sell extremely well, thanks to first party nintendo games
2 nintendo will make a lot of profit, like they always do with the overall life of their consoles

3 a lot of third party publishers/devs will close down and lose a lot of money
4 ps4 and new xbox will have a really slow start, cancelling each other out, third party game sales will suffer the most

5 either sony or ms will go out of the console business


Or, in other words: "Everything that is not Nintendo must die because I say so"
#6_Sovereign_Posted 4/3/2013 4:42:50 PM
SS4_Namreppiv posted...
From: zender1999 | #002
this is what will happen
1 wiiu will sell extremely well, thanks to first party nintendo games
2 nintendo will make a lot of profit, like they always do with the overall life of their consoles

3 a lot of third party publishers/devs will close down and lose a lot of money
4 ps4 and new xbox will have a really slow start, cancelling each other out, third party game sales will suffer the most

5 either sony or ms will go out of the console business



This^^^


Agreed......though I just wish Sony would get back in touch with what made them huge to begin with.
---
We impose order on the chaos of organic evolution. You exist because we allow it, and you will end because we demand it.
#7zalmutePosted 4/3/2013 5:32:21 PM
I am extremely pessimistic about next gen. If a game like tomb raider is considered a failure then its time to be scared.
---
This gen devs will bleed, but its ok, 8 gb ddr5 right?
PC + WiiU.
#8Shadowbird_RHPosted 4/3/2013 5:39:16 PM
Lessons will be taught. Last gen lessons were taught. Painful lessons. Some learned, some did not, some did not survive. For the new generation of gaming, the severity of these lessons will be greater.

Learn, adapt, grow, dominate.
Do not learn, suffer, wither, die.
---
Surrender and I will destroy you peacefully.
R.E.G.I.S. mk5 - Megas XLR
#9NamcoMuseum2Posted 4/3/2013 5:44:11 PM
The Wii U, Durango, and PS4 will all be destroyed by the Ouya.
#10gameG3ni3Posted 4/3/2013 5:50:06 PM
Dr_Facer posted...
zender1999 posted...
this is what will happen
1 wiiu will sell extremely well, thanks to first party nintendo games
2 nintendo will make a lot of profit, like they always do with the overall life of their consoles

3 a lot of third party publishers/devs will close down and lose a lot of money
4 ps4 and new xbox will have a really slow start, cancelling each other out, third party game sales will suffer the most

5 either sony or ms will go out of the console business


Or, in other words: "Everything that is not Nintendo must die because I say so"


No, "Everything that is not Nintendo must die because they can't make money...not because I said so".
---
NNID: Xenteros
Currently playing: LoZ:SS, NSMBU