Does the Xbox One reveal tell us home consoles are a dying breed?

#1MilesTeg420Posted 5/21/2013 11:05:15 PM
With Wii U struggling, Xbox One having a terrible reveal, and the PS4 starting off just "OK" hype wise...is it proof we have moved on from the home console era? PS4 price could still be a factor in hurting early adoption as well.

Or is just that at this time, we have truly hit the point of diminishing returns? I've heard talk that the next big graphical advancement is coming in a few years, but for now the tech isn't ready.

Or do we need one of the big three to back a VR based console in the future?
#2UmitenchoPosted 5/21/2013 11:09:02 PM
I could see a video game crash coming but because of how ridiculous dlc has become and ironically its the 30th year anniversary of the crash.
#3DBPanterAPosted 5/21/2013 11:22:38 PM
No, the Xbox1 reveal didn't tell us that: The last 2 years of year over year declines in software sales began to show us these trends. In addition, many game publishers have been disappointed with sales exceeding several million units (think Tomb Raider and 5 million for an example).

The issue which many bring up is the the fact that purchasing a brand new TV today will give you Wifi and the ability to use many internet functions that the consoles bring.

You also have new ways to entertain yourself that were not as large or non-existent 8 years ago. Facebook, youtube, netflix, smartphones, tablets, etc.

As a consumer, each and every company is after your eyeballs as that is the most important thing. When your eyeballs are on a certain device or product, you are more likely to purchase items seen during that time.

All companies in the video game industry are trying to make money, and most are publicly traded entities that need to show growth to please their stock holders. It was funny Nintendo saw a stock bump today after the announcement. The fact remains that at E3 there will be no mentioning of prices, fees, etc. That will come later, and the numbers will be more than people anticipate. Developers have already said the cost to produce games on next gen consoles is 10-15% higher. Where do you think that money is going to come from? Yes, a rise in software cost. The developers will not eat a 10-15% loss in revenue, everything gets passed down to the consumer while all the hands in the middle take their piece of the pie.

The fact is that as of today, roughly 250 million consoles from the big three have been sold globally. That number will be much smaller. Pachter thinks 225 million, I personally believe 175. Many people will either purchase less consoles or give up all together and find other ways to entertain themselves.
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#4MilesTeg420(Topic Creator)Posted 5/21/2013 11:31:40 PM
DBPanterA posted...
No, the Xbox1 reveal didn't tell us that: The last 2 years of year over year declines in software sales began to show us these trends. In addition, many game publishers have been disappointed with sales exceeding several million units (think Tomb Raider and 5 million for an example).

The issue which many bring up is the the fact that purchasing a brand new TV today will give you Wifi and the ability to use many internet functions that the consoles bring.

You also have new ways to entertain yourself that were not as large or non-existent 8 years ago. Facebook, youtube, netflix, smartphones, tablets, etc.

As a consumer, each and every company is after your eyeballs as that is the most important thing. When your eyeballs are on a certain device or product, you are more likely to purchase items seen during that time.

All companies in the video game industry are trying to make money, and most are publicly traded entities that need to show growth to please their stock holders. It was funny Nintendo saw a stock bump today after the announcement. The fact remains that at E3 there will be no mentioning of prices, fees, etc. That will come later, and the numbers will be more than people anticipate. Developers have already said the cost to produce games on next gen consoles is 10-15% higher. Where do you think that money is going to come from? Yes, a rise in software cost. The developers will not eat a 10-15% loss in revenue, everything gets passed down to the consumer while all the hands in the middle take their piece of the pie.

The fact is that as of today, roughly 250 million consoles from the big three have been sold globally. That number will be much smaller. Pachter thinks 225 million, I personally believe 175. Many people will either purchase less consoles or give up all together and find other ways to entertain themselves.


Yeah, I also believe the market will contract significantly, and also that the writing has been on the wall for a crash. Decreasing hardware sales, but mostly decreasing software sales tells you this plain as day. Software has steadily decreased and is now at such a low level that AAA budgets are truly not sustainable.
#5demesjos2Posted 5/21/2013 11:38:46 PM
I think that some of the major publishers are going to be in trouble this next gen with their over the top budgeting. They could take a lesson from some of the smaller companies that make a profit on smaller niche titles and learn to budget accordingly. Not every game is going to put up COD numbers. COD might have a harsh decline coming too.
#6DBPanterAPosted 5/21/2013 11:44:19 PM
TC,

Look, I will be honest when I say I enjoy Nintendo. They are quirky and follow the beat of a different drummer. They are in a catch-22 in that game publishers do not support the console because there are not many Wii U's sold. When the games come and people buy the Nintendo product, the 3rd party developers will say that can't sell games on a Nintendo platform. It truly does suck as there is nothing Nintendo can do to remedy the issue until Western game developers choose to change their philosophy and place gameplay first over graphics and power.

I personally enjoy some of these AAA games in conjunction with the Nintendo offerings. Love Batman, love Assassin's Creed, and will play some CoD too. But the issue is that the development and marketing budgets is simply absurd. Nintendo doesn't market for diddly poo, but even arguable the worst Mario game made in many people's opinion is the August release of NSMB2 on the 3DS (it was fun, I enjoyed it). That game has sold 6.5 million copies globally. Nintendo made a killing off their worst game.

The expectations for people will only continue to rise as they seek the next new experience, the next new big game. However, for those that have played for many years, there isn't anything drastically new coming to the table besides better graphics and more power. The countless hours of playing games makes it so the things that challenged us at the beginning are no longer difficult today. Until there is a fundamental change in the experience the software can bring, people will not continue to drop $60, or more likely $70 for next gen games to repeat the same experiences they have had in the past.
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#7DBPanterAPosted 5/21/2013 11:47:30 PM
demesjos2 posted...
I think that some of the major publishers are going to be in trouble this next gen with their over the top budgeting. They could take a lesson from some of the smaller companies that make a profit on smaller niche titles and learn to budget accordingly. Not every game is going to put up COD numbers. COD might have a harsh decline coming too.


The sales numbers will fall for CoD. Blops 2 is over 22.5 million units globally.

What will happen, and this is what 3rd parties are scared of, is people taking the wait and see approach and continue playing multi-player games on the PS3 and 360, where there are 75+ million consoles out there vs. the 0-3 million consoles for next gen. This will cause 3rd party developers to continue to support these consoles for the next 2-3 years in order to make a profit or break even, since next gen will not have the install base.

Head over the the Wii U Blops 2 board about how much fun it was to have 2,000 people on-line and only being able to play a handful of game modes.
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#8LordrvPosted 5/22/2013 12:29:56 AM
That's what I got out of it.
#9crimsonclaw111Posted 5/22/2013 12:32:29 AM
No, it just reconfirms the Third Console Curse. Sony and Nintendo will make it out as respectable gamer's companies.
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#10CyborgTwentyPosted 5/22/2013 3:17:59 AM
It just tells us that Microsoft as a console maker is a dying breed.
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