Cutting the BS. Industry crash this gen, yay or nay?
I wouldn't say there will be a crash, but the industry is going to radically change by 2016 or 17. The trend is that games are becoming shorter, less content rich, and yet more expensive.
An unfortunate "no".
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I ****ing want it, but it'll probably happen next generation at the soonest
I may not agree with what you have to say, but I will fight to the death for my right to fight you to the death. -Stephen Colbert
No. But there is some cause for concern. Things to consider:
1) Prices are actually a lot more reasonable this generation. $400 for PS4 is a pretty good price when you consider last gen, or even the one before it. Adjusting for inflation it's about on par with SNES.
2) Nintendo has obviously screwed up big time, but let no one say they don't know how to make a buck. Wii U will turn a profit even if it's the worst selling console in the last four generations.
3) However! HD production budgets are getting out of control. I don't think it's a function of graphics, I think it's a function of bloat. PC games have been profitable despite having better graphics for years, and a generally more niche market (i.e. gamers with expensive PCs). Tomb Raider is a good example, it's a good game, looks good, sold great. At a loss, because they overdid it. It obviously did not need multiplayer, that was a mistake. Advertising may also be to blame but that's a harder call.
4) Word is that this gen will be cheaper to develop for. If so that may be a saving grace.
Overall this generation looks more optimistic than say, a couple years ago, when people seriously questioned if console gaming had a future.
It's already happening honestly. Some of the lowest software records of all time have been happening over the last few months.
The problem is partly due to mobile games (it's not just the handheld market being affected, mobile changes everything), and partly because of generation fatigue; this gen went on too long and the industry was hurt by it.
The industry will crash for a number of reasons: AAA development costs, too many devices to play games (tablet, smartphone, PC, 360, PS3, Xbox One, 3DS, Vita, PS4, PC, etc), the free to play model, DLC, a decline in video game market mindshare because of generation fatigue, and a bad call by third party to continue supporting current gen through 2014 and beyond. Let it die already - at this point software is so low on 360/PS3 you have to wonder if it's really worth it over being a notable next-gen exclusive.
However I largely find Nintendo separate from all this and firmly believe their sales troubles rest soley on their own shoulders, not market trends. They let Wii go six years instead of the typical Nintendo five years, with about two years of no games. They release Wii U without proven brands (where is Wii Sports, Zelda, Metroid, etc etc) and don't release a game for 8 months after launch. The 3DS was an expensive mishap that has been repeated with Wii U and their development resources have been drained.
There are many more issues but the point is it's Nintendo's fault, not smartphones, not third party, not tablets, not weak hardware, not Nintendo's casual market disapeared. Nintendo just blew it in way too many ways.