Please stop using historical trends for Mario Kart....

#1dart246Posted 4/21/2014 11:53:55 AM
It's not so much that the data is wrong, it's that it isn't relevant.

For example, I see posted over and over that Mario Kart sold over 40 million, however this data is highly irrelevant due to the following issues:

1.) Prior high install base; thus meaning that there were a decent amount of people that already owned the Wii prior the game being released

2.) Price. There is a large price difference between the two, as the Wii during the time that Mario Kart launched was easily found for $200 and less. This is not the case with the Wii U.

3.) Novelty. This is something that is highly overlooked, but one of the major selling points at the time was the use of the Wiimote to control the wheel, this feeling like you were "driving." This is something that Mario Kart 8 can do, but it's not being stressed or shown.

Now looking at Mario Kart 7 is also not relevant for historical trends due to some major factors.

1.) Different Market. This is like being a dead horse, but handhelds are a completely different market than consoles, and in fact almost don't fit into a Porter Five Forces analysis of the console video game market, though an argument of substitution can be made it's not one that I would suggest.

2.) Major price drop. The Wii U had seen a price drop, however it is not the same as the 3DS which had a substantial price drop of almost 40%. If the Wii U dropped to ~$200 a case could be made, but as of now...no.

3.) Bundles. Though there is no word on if there will be or not be a bundle, this was a major contributor to game and system sales.

If anything wouldn't the most appropriate comparison for historical trends of Mario Kart be to look at Double Dash's impact on GameCube sales?
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#2HermeticJusticePosted 4/21/2014 11:54:52 AM
dart246 posted...
For example, I see posted over and over that Mario Kart sold over 40 million, however this data is highly irrelevant due to the following issues:


a prime example of people using a single troll as evidence for an entire fanbase
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#3squatch22Posted 4/21/2014 11:55:01 AM
Go make a time machine then we can use future trends...
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#4dart246(Topic Creator)Posted 4/21/2014 11:57:08 AM(edited)
squatch22 posted...
Go make a time machine then we can use future trends...


Actually it's simple basic market research. When looking at possible gains or losses for the future, relevant historical data in changing trends is critical.
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#5sharinaginPosted 4/21/2014 11:58:20 AM
No see since MKWii sold 37 million copies all of the people who bought that are going to buy it anyways regardless of it they have a WiiU or not that's how this works right?
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#6CHAINMAILLEKIDPosted 4/21/2014 12:02:31 PM
It's still relevant.
Every MK game has been extremely successful , and it's popularity has definitely only increased over the past few generations.
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#7AceMosPosted 4/21/2014 12:04:31 PM
MK7 on the 3DS gave the 3DS a large sales bump
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#8dart246(Topic Creator)Posted 4/21/2014 12:06:01 PM
AceMos posted...
MK7 on the 3DS gave the 3DS a large sales bump


Did you actually read the original post where the 3DS is discussed?
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#9Felix6464Posted 4/21/2014 12:07:56 PM
So we can't use past trends to help predict how this game will sell? Genius! Now we can continue spouting baseless nonsense like this board usually does!
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#10DesulatedPosted 4/21/2014 12:07:59 PM
dart246 posted...
squatch22 posted...
Go make a time machine then we can use future trends...


Actually it's simple basic market research. When looking at possible gains or losses for the future, relevant historical data in changing trends is critical.


Great, now do something useful for once with your claims and try to predict the next great recession.
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