Media Create Week 27

#31TerotrousPosted 7/9/2014 9:52:30 AM(edited)
Eoin posted...
We can't say for certain. We can be almost certain though. The Wii U's sales in the four weeks before the release of MK8 were on average 7994 units per week (Famitsu, just to be clear which tracker I'm using, since my figures aren't going to match the Media Create ones above). This week system sales were 8020 units. That's a small enough difference that it's difficult to argue that sales haven't fallen back to the baseline.

Media Create shows a more significant difference, they had Wii U sitting at around 8.5k per week before the MK8 boost, while they currently have it around 10k. It generally seems to be accepted that Media Create's figures are more accurate, so I'd consider the boost to be maintained until it falls back down to 9k or so (which it no doubt will, but it hasn't yet).


Last year the idea was that there wouldn't be so long to wait for another game as well...

Yes, it's definitely subject to those games actually selling well. If Hyrule Warriors manages to bomb, that would be bad for sales. It probably won't though, Warriors games don't really have to do much to sell. They can release the same game like 10 times and it'll keep charting every single time, Warriors' fanbase is very loyal.


Hardware sales of the Wii U dipped below their pre-Pikmin 3 level 3 weeks after the release of Pikmin 3. For MK8, it was the same - 3 weeks of unambiguous boost, followed by a return to levels below what had been seen just before release.

Well of course you can't look at the week immediately before the game comes out, because that's when the boost starts (this is very clear with MK8). I'm using 2-3 weeks before the game comes out as the baseline.


We definitely aren't talking about boosts that last 3 months here. Even the boost two weeks after launch is quite small (808 units above baseline for Pikmin 3, 2372 units for MK8). A game every 3 months isn't going to achieve very much.

Well it's now been 5 weeks since MK8 came out. If we're going by Media Create's numbers, the sales are still boosted, and have been for 6 weeks now. Assuming the boost holds 1-2 more weeks before going back to baseline that's close to 2 months of boost.

So perhaps the number they need is more like every 2 months.
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#32Kromlech06Posted 7/9/2014 9:49:40 AM
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#33EoinPosted 7/9/2014 9:59:51 AM
Terotrous posted...
It generally seems to be accepted that Media Create's figures are more accurate

By whom? I think you'll find that's not "generally" accepted at all.
#34EoinPosted 7/9/2014 10:03:37 AM(edited)
Terotrous posted...
Well of course you can't look at the week immediately before the game comes out, because that's when the boost starts (this is very clear with MK8). I'm using 2-3 weeks before the game comes out as the baseline.

Using 2/3/4 weeks doesn't actually change this. The sales figures are back below the baseline at week 3 anyway (using 2013 baseline for both games).
#35TerotrousPosted 7/9/2014 10:05:26 AM(edited)
Eoin posted...
By whom? I think you'll find that's not "generally" accepted at all.

The gaming community? There just seems to be more discussion of Media Create's numbers.

Doesn't Famitsu base a lot of its research on magazine surveys, anyway? That would instantly limit their accuracy.


Eoin posted...
Using 2/3/4 weeks doesn't actually change this. The sales figures are back below the baseline at week 3 anyway.

For MK8 it definitely does since sales jumped about 2k in the week before release.


Anyway, we won't really be able to have a nuanced discussion of the numbers while we're using different data sources, since their numbers don't match up they show different things. I suppose we'll know for sure when Nintendo releases their next set of fiscal results.
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#36EoinPosted 7/9/2014 10:10:19 AM(edited)
Terotrous posted...
The gaming community? There just seems to be more discussion of Media Create's numbers.

What gaming community? There's no "the" gaming community. Discussion centres around the Media Create numbers largely because they appear first. Search through the weekly NeoGAF topic that has both trackers and you'll see the Famitsu figures referred to as the "superior tracker". Personally, I don't think there's much to choose between them and I've never seen any reason to think one is much better than the other, with the only reason to mention them being to ensure consistency (making sure any comparisons are between the same track and not cross-tracker).

There definitely is not a consensus that Media Create's figures are better.

Terotrous posted...
Doesn't Famitsu base a lot of its research on magazine surveys, anyway? That would instantly limit their accuracy.

No. Where did you get this idea? Famitsu does regularly publish charts based on reader polls, so you may be confusing these with the sales charts, but these two chart types have absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with each other.
#37TerotrousPosted 7/9/2014 10:14:30 AM(edited)
Eoin posted...
What gaming community? There's no "the" gaming community. Discussion centres around the Media Create numbers largely because they appear first. Search through the weekly NeoGAF topic that has both trackers and you'll see the Famitsu figures referred to as the "superior tracker". Personally, I don't think there's much to choose between them and I've never seen any reason to think one is much better than the other, with the only reason to mention them being to ensure consistency (making sure any comparisons are between the same track and not cross-tracker).

Even if there's no clear reason to choose one over the other, this is still a Media Create thread so presumably discussion is assumed to be using Media Create numbers. You could always create a Famitsu sales thread if you wanted to.

Though if the differences in sales volumes are so minor that we can't even get accurate data, it suggests that it might not really be worth talking about in the first place. Depending on whose figures are right, Wii U could be nicely above baseline, or perhaps they're below it instead.
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#38EoinPosted 7/9/2014 10:33:59 AM
Terotrous posted...
Even if there's no clear reason to choose one over the other, this is still a Media Create thread so presumably discussion is assumed to be using Media Create numbers.

This is (one of the reasons) why I specifically stated I was using Famitsu numbers.

Terotrous posted...
You could always create a Famitsu sales thread if you wanted to.

Or I could post replies relating to posts in this topic inside of this topic. This is the option that I chose, and I am happy with it.

Terotrous posted...
Though if the differences in sales volumes are so minor that we can't even get accurate data, it suggests that it might not really be worth talking about in the first place. Depending on whose figures are right, Wii U could be nicely above baseline, or perhaps they're below it instead.

Neither of the trackers have to be right. They could both be wrong in different ways.

However, either way, we end up with two identifiable scenarios: either the Wii U is a tiny bit above the baseline, or it's below. Neither of these possibilities are much good for the Wii U, neither of them indicates that there's any kind of permanent boost from MK8, and neither of them support the idea that a release every 2-3 months will keep the Wii U in a boosted sales state.
#39TerotrousPosted 7/9/2014 10:39:39 AM
Eoin posted...
However, either way, we end up with two identifiable scenarios: either the Wii U is a tiny bit above the baseline, or it's below. Neither of these possibilities are much good for the Wii U

+~15% is tiny? For 5 weeks after your last major game came out I'd say that's pretty good.
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#40The_Shadow_Link(Topic Creator)Posted 7/9/2014 10:48:19 AM
Terotrous posted...
Eoin posted...
However, either way, we end up with two identifiable scenarios: either the Wii U is a tiny bit above the baseline, or it's below. Neither of these possibilities are much good for the Wii U

+~15% is tiny? For 5 weeks after your last major game came out I'd say that's pretty good.


+15% is not great when the console was doing fairly bad to begin with and your first/second strongest brand just released.

It's hard to compare anything at present. But Yo-kai watch is going to be giving the 3DS a strong boost. Lets see if that can also cause a 15% increase in 5 weeks time (And all that requires is about 31,000 sales I believe. Although it's probably a bit more unfair since 3DS will get other releases during that 5 week gap)
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