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Prediction Roster Contest!!

#1sterlingtygerPosted 9/6/2013 6:10:49 PM
It may be somewhat early to do something like this... but the idea came to me just now, and I couldn't resist!

This thread is a contest with no real importance, and it will be updated every time a character is announced. This isn't a contest amongst us, but rather, a competition to be as accurate with our predictions as possible. Anyone can enter; just make a roster, preferably with Roster Maker for convenience, but as long as it's an image it can have any means of creation you'd like, that you think will be as close to the final roster as possible. If your mind changes about your prediction, you can come to me and ask me to swap out your previous entry with a newer one... however, your older roster will be kept track of as a nulled entry, so that I can make sure you know if you USED TO have something right.

The following things will give you correctness points, and the person with the highest total upon the release of the game and knowledge of complete roster will be the winner, and get bragging rights:

50 points: Correct guess of a SPECIFIC SHOCKING/WTF newcomer's inclusion(Something completely out of left field like Diskun or Style Savvy Shop Manager or Sandbag.)
25 points: Correct guess of a non-expected newcomer's inclusion(Non-expected is just about anyone the board is at least somewhat torn about; Ridley falls under here, as do most New Franchises.)
15 points: Correct guess of an expected newcomer's inclusion(Expected newcomers are Palutena, Little Mac, Dixie Kong, K. Rool, Mewtwo, Chrom, Takamaru, Mii and Pac-Man. These are the 9 most commonly expected or wanted characters, at least around these parts.)
10 points: Correct guess of a questionable veteran's inclusion(Questionable veterans are Lucario, Ike, Sonic, Snake, Jigglypuff, Pokemon Trainer, Lucas, Falco, Wolf and Toon Link; in other words, any character with even a slim chance of exclusion. The removed Melee characters will be counted as newcomers.)
10 points: Correct guess of any Brawl veteran's exclusion
5 points: Correct guess of an assumed veteran's inclusion(An assumed veteran is just about anyone from Brawl besides the 10 listed above.)
5 points: Correct guess of the unlockable status of any character(This probably won't matter until the end; it is worth note that, with exception of Third Parties and Luigi, who are to be considered ambiguous until proven otherwise, all characters revealed pre-release are to be considered pre-unlocked until proven otherwise.)
Golden Snitch(Essentially, an instant 'winning' score): Literally exactly correct with all characters.(This isn't going to happen.)

One more thing:
You are allowed to have ambiguous choices so long as they are represented with specific characters; so you can have a slot on your roster for "Fire Emblem Awakening character", and have it represented with Chrom, but you won't get points if Robin or Tharja or whatever is revealed: only if Chrom is.

I will be keeping track of all rosters, which should be entered via this thread. And yes, characters already revealed DO give you points, so just about everyone should start with:
11 Assumed Veterans included: 11x5 = 55
1 Expected Newcomer included(Mega Man): 15
1 Non-expected Newcomer included(Villager): 25
1 SHOCKING Newcomer included(Wii Fit Trainer): 50
12 Pre-unlocked characters(All 12 revealed thus far besides Mega Man and Luigi): 12x5 = 60

That's 205 points.
It is worth noting that besides these 205 that everyone starts with(unless they're unintelligent and remove WFT or assume Mario's unlockable or something), no points will be gained retroactively. So if a new character is announced, and you change your roster to include them, you do not get points for them.

Go ahead and enter, y'all. UwU
#2Rot8er_CodeXPosted 9/6/2013 6:16:43 PM
.....your Harry Potter refrence is flawed.
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#3sterlingtyger(Topic Creator)Posted 9/6/2013 6:21:09 PM
Rot8er_CodeX posted...
.....your Harry Potter refrence is flawed.


I'm aware that it is possible to win despite a Golden Snitch, and that it merely gives the team a ludicrous amount of points, not an instantaneous victory, if that is what you are referring to.
#4OsumnisPosted 9/6/2013 6:27:35 PM
So if I guess every character ever I would get an extremely high number of points? This system is very flawed. You have to make it possible to lose points as well, or get points based on the correct number of characters.
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#5sterlingtyger(Topic Creator)Posted 9/6/2013 6:34:56 PM
Osumnis posted...
So if I guess every character ever I would get an extremely high number of points? This system is very flawed. You have to make it possible to lose points as well, or get points based on the correct number of characters.


Ah... hm. True.

Perhaps I should have a penalty for every character over 45, as well as a penalty for incorrect characters that will be applied upon full roster knowledge?
#6OsumnisPosted 9/6/2013 6:40:22 PM
sterlingtyger posted...
Osumnis posted...
So if I guess every character ever I would get an extremely high number of points? This system is very flawed. You have to make it possible to lose points as well, or get points based on the correct number of characters.


Ah... hm. True.

Perhaps I should have a penalty for every character over 45, as well as a penalty for incorrect characters that will be applied upon full roster knowledge?


A penalty for incorrect characters sounds good. I'm not sure about the over 45 thing, though. My idea is that for every character over/under the amount in the final roster, a certain amount of points should be subtracted.
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I just made a signature because it looks better when posting.
Toon Link in Brodunnit.
#7chumpykalamoonaPosted 9/6/2013 6:44:20 PM
sterlingtyger posted...
Ah... hm. True.

Perhaps I should have a penalty for every character over 45, as well as a penalty for incorrect characters that will be applied upon full roster knowledge?


I think you should basically deduct points equal to their theoretical worth. If someone makes a SHOCKING prediction that The Brave Little Toaster gets in, the should lose points equal to what they would have gotten if he got in, in that case 50.

Basically high risk, high reward. If you guess an "obvious" newcomer like Palutena. And she's NOT in. You shouldn't lose that many points because no one can blame you for making that predicition. It seemed reasonable.

Basically, take your scoring list, and make it negative for the same characters if they aren't in. I think that would be best.

But I mean, it's your contest. Do what you see fit.
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