Birdo stands little-to-no chance: she's not popular, she's not iconic, and she's not particularly highly requested, especially in comparison to the handful of Mario characters that are hotly vying for the playable spot. All she really has going for her is that she shows up regularly in the spinoffs, but that's hardly enough for her to beat out Toad or Bowser Jr. Birdo get's a 10%.
On Tom Nook's side of things, I feel about the same as I did before: he's make the most sense as an Animal Crossing rep, since the "Crosser" is both incredibly generic to the point of not even having a good descriptor name ("Animal Crosser" makes no sense and wouldn't fit in Japan) and would demand customization, something I doubt Sakurai will want to fully implement for more than one character. Animal Crossing is also a series that really deserves a rep due to popularity and demand, but unfortunately Sakurai has stated that he feels that it wouldn't be true to the series for them to have a rep. Before, I gave Tom a 20%, but now... I feel like Tom Nook has enough of a fan base and enough demand to potentially change Sakurai's mind at least a little bit. I'm still not expecting him by any stretch of the imagination, but I'll bump his chances up to 25%.
Predict a 0.5% for Angry Birds.
Nom Junpei x 5, because I recently finished 999 and it was brilliant. --- Twilight Sparkle is best pony. 3DS Friend Code: 2234-7169-9510