Will They Be In? New Character Chances Revisited!

#1Genesis DragonPosted 1/2/2013 7:54:14 PM
Hello again, Smash fans! About a year and a half ago I made a topic called ďSmash Character Chances - Will They Be In?Ē In this topic, I rated the chances of individual characters to be in the Wii U Smash game, trying to provide a reasonable rationale for each one. Since it was not long after the game was announced, it was more or less for fun, and clearly subject to new information coming out.

Well, itís been 18 months and...well, thereís still virtually no information. However, I think itís a good time for a revisit. So, Iím going to include the old list first, then modify it based on your feedback, new character ideas, and my own analysis. For starters, Iím changing the tiers somewhat, since I feel like the previous tiers werenít especially well-conceptualized. Also, Iím going to be clearer at the outset about how I go about making my assessments; that wasnít initially completely clear, even to me, and only later on did I make a clear outline of how I sorted characters.

So, without further ado: Will They Be In Redux!


Ground Rules For The Topic

New Character Suggestions
If you have a character that isnít on the list that you think could be in Smash 4, hereís some guidelines for making that suggestion:

-Please state that youíre suggesting new characters, just for simplicity.
-Read the list first. Please donít suggest characters that are already on it. Itís a big list, I recommend you use the Find function if youíre not sure.
-Please donít suggest more than three characters per post. Though I donít believe there will be that many new suggestions that this will be a big problem, itís just easier that way.
-My running assumption is that the Brawl roster will be preserved in its entirety. Thus, please do not suggest characters from the Brawl roster.
-If youíre suggesting a character, please identify the series and provide a couple details. I donít know every character from every video game, and I will have to do some searching for info about some of them in order to make assessments. Having some details will help make that faster and easier.
-Suggestions with some rationale are appreciated.
-Characters may not be rated in the order posted, depending on various factors. Please have patience, I intend to get to all of them.

Tiering Suggestions
If youíre looking at either the old or new list and think a character should be in a different tier, hereís some guidelines for making that suggestion:

-Please state that youíre making a tiering suggestion, again for simplicity.
-Please start with the name of the character, preferably in a separate line. Itíll help speed things up.
-Again, please no more than three character suggestions per post.
-You have to actually make a case for the character. Just saying ďI think Xís chances should be higherĒ without backing that up with some reasonable rationale is not enough.
-Again, I may not address comments in the order posted. But I will get to all of them.
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"YOU ARE IMPRESSED BY THE SEMICOLON USE AND, THEREFORE, CONSENT TO SEXUAL CONGRESS. AWESOME." -Dinosaur Comics #1762
#2MichaelollPosted 1/2/2013 8:02:25 PM(edited)
New characters:

[Mario] Daisy in her sports outfit. She has good agility like zero suit samus and can do some backflips. However, she has different sports weapons, from a baseball bat to a tennis racket. NAMCO and Nintendo's last game was Mario Super Sluggers, so her baseball bat will be the most prominent weapon.

[Yoshi] Baby Peach. She is a popular baby and would not be another clone version of Mario. She can represent the Yoshi's Island portion of Yoshi series and attack with her umbrella
#3Genesis Dragon(Topic Creator)Posted 1/2/2013 7:59:34 PM
New Likelihood Tiers

Reasonable: Characters that I believe have good odds of being in Smash 4. There are good attributes towards their inclusion and not a lot of reasons to think it couldnít happen.
Plausible: Characters that I believe have a decent shot of inclusion. Maybe there are a few reasons why it wouldnít happen, but it wouldnít be surprising if they were in.
Marginal: Characters that could potentially be included, but have some factors going against them as well. Good arguments could be made for or against.
Slim: Characters that could potentially be included, but have a lot of factors going against them. Will probably include popular suggestions with a lot of logistical issues.
Unlikely: Characters that I am fairly sure wonít be in. They have very strong arguments against, while the arguments for are more or less ďI think theyíd made a good/interesting character.Ē
Laughing Dog: Characters that get frequently suggested as jokes. The title is inspired by the Duck Hunt Laughing Dog, which I am convinced belongs in this tier.
Possibly Ineligible: Reserved for characters that I donít think are eligible for inclusion in the first place. If it is shown otherwise, then I will move them to a different tier.


Judgment Criteria

Factors Being Considered
These are the main factors I use to determine odds. If you have a position on whether a characterís chances should be higher or lower, these are good arguments to play to.

-Relevance: Probably the most widely-applied criterion. After all, this is a game primarily of Nintendo all-stars, and they most likely were important at some point in time, even if not necessarily right now. It's not definitive, though; one would be hard-pressed to argue that Snake was especially important to Nintendo at any time.

-Currency: When trying to appeal to modern audiences, it helps to have those characters fresh in their minds. Retro characters do get in, but when they lack that freshness you risk becoming too obscure, especially to younger gamers. So being "current" to some degree helps appeal to a broader audience.

-Potential: Not character potential in-game, but in general. Is the character going to be part of Nintendo for a while? Are they wanting to make new games and increase the character's presence? I feel this is largely why Pit got into Brawl; they were interested in making more Kid Icarus games and actually used the Brawl spot to foster interest.

-Uniqueness: I don't doubt that most any character can be made unique, and that isn't going to be what drives the character selection. However, I believe that Nintendo is trying to distance itself from clones - again an opinion, but one that seems reasonable, given the general backlash against them - and a character that is functionally identical to an existing one will therefore have a lower chance of making the roster.

-Popularity: I don't think this is as critical as some people make it out to be. Plenty of characters with low popularity have gotten in, while many with high popularity have been excluded. That said, it can't be discounted entirely; for example, it's probably the only reason Jigglypuff got on the roster in the first game (granted, back then things were somewhat different from what they are now). Popular characters have broader appeal, so like the currency criterion, it can help to expand interest in the game.

-Fit: Does the character fit Smash? Not every one does. There are some characters out there that have been suggested that I just don't see as a "Smash" character. This isn't perfect - there's a couple already on the roster that wouldn't be my idea of a "Smash" character - but it's relevant nonetheless.
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"YOU ARE IMPRESSED BY THE SEMICOLON USE AND, THEREFORE, CONSENT TO SEXUAL CONGRESS. AWESOME." -Dinosaur Comics #1762
#4Genesis Dragon(Topic Creator)Posted 1/2/2013 7:59:56 PM
Factors Not Being Considered
These are factors Iím not using to consider chances, because I donít believe they are actually relevant.

-Villainy: I know villains are a popular call for the roster, but I don't believe it actually helps their chances if they're a villain. There's no affirmative action thing going on here, and heroes are always going to be more likely simply because they're more relatable - you play as them more, so you connect with them more.

-Femininity: Again, there's no affirmative action at work here. Female characters don't get in solely by virtue of being female.

-My personal preference: If that was a criterion, this list would look a lot different. Again, I try to separate my own feelings about the character from my analysis of their odds of getting in.


Clauses
Sometimes very similar reasons can be used to apply to many characters. When that happens, Iíll frequently cite one of these clauses as a shorthand.

-Third Party Clause: Due to Nintendo primarily focusing on first-party characters, third-party characters will quite often have lower chances even if they would be otherwise good characters.

-Isolation Clause: Related to the Third Party clause. Due to the limited number of third party slots, it seems much more likely that Nintendo will shoot for breadth rather than depth, and have more companies represented with fewer characters. Thus, the chances of Metal Gear or Sonic having new representatives is greatly reduced.

-Saturation Clause: If there are a lot of suggestions for a particular series, even if they are good characters, itís very likely they will be rated lower simply by virtue of the list of possibilities being so large. This can apply to single series, or to third-party companies which arenít likely to have many reps each.

-Pokťmon Clause: This oneís kind of specific, but may come in handy. There are a ton of Pokťmon, and the vast majority of them arenít really notable enough to merit a starring role. If a suggested Pokťmon isnít notable enough, it will get this stamp and a low rating.
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"YOU ARE IMPRESSED BY THE SEMICOLON USE AND, THEREFORE, CONSENT TO SEXUAL CONGRESS. AWESOME." -Dinosaur Comics #1762
#5Genesis Dragon(Topic Creator)Posted 1/2/2013 8:01:03 PM
THE OLD LIST
This list is unedited from how I finished it from the last topic. It also has the old tier names. I will be putting these characters into the new tier list over time (with updates as the topic goes on), but if you think a character from here should be placed into a particular one of the new tiers, I encourage you to go ahead and make your case while I'm working on that! (NOTE: since this was made before Namco was announced as a partner, feel free to point out Namco characters which might be more likely now than they were a year and a half ago!)

Probable
Bowser Jr.
Mega Man
Zoroark

Considerable
Little Mac
Magnus
Paper Mario
Ray 01
Ridley

Plausible
Andy
Bomberman
Genesect
Ghirahim
Goemon
Kamek
Matthew
Medusa
Palutena
Phantom Zelda
Prince Fluff
Rayman
Rundas
Ryu Hayabusa
Samurai Goroh
Starfy
Sylux
Tetra/Toon Zelda
Tingle
Toad
Victini

Marginal
Ashley
Balloon Fighter
Birdo
Captain Syrup
Dark Samus
Dixie Kong
Isa Jo
Isaac
Dillon the Armadillo
King K. Rool
Klonoa
Lip
Maxwell
Mona
Neku
Quote
Roy
Saki
Shantae
Slime
Solar Boy Django
Spyro
Sukapon
Takamaru
Tom Nook
Travis Touchdown
Vaati
Yarn Kirby

Slim
Aiai
Amaterasu
Animal Crosser
Anthony Higgs
Baby Mario/Baby Luigi
Bandana Dee
Banjo-Kazooie
Big Boss
Black Shadow
Bonk
Bub/Bob
Byrne
Cha-Cha
Chibi-Robo
Crash Bandicoot
Crono
Cynthia
Dark Matter
Earthworm Jim
Geno
Hunter
Jack Frost
Kefka
Krystal
Laharl
Leon Kennedy
Lloyd Irving
Luke fon Fabre
Lyn
Marx
Meowth
Mewtwo
Midna
Mii
Mike Haggar
Mike Jones
N
Pacman
Petey Piranha
Pig Ganon
Raiden
Rosalina
Shy Guy
Sigurd
Simon Belmont
Skull Kid
Soma Cruz
Sparkster
Trace
Viewtiful Joe
Weavil
Wolf Link
Zant

Very Unlikely
Adam
Arthur
Ashnard
Bass
Black Knight
Black Mage
Blaziken
Blood Falcon
Camus
Captain Rainbow
Chocobo
Chris
Cloud
Cooking Mama
Count Bleck
Daisy
Darknut
Ditto
Dr. Robotnik
Duke Nukem
Duster
Elite Beat Agents
Fawful
Funky Kong
Garchomp
General Guy
Hector
Heracross
Iron Knuckle
Joshua
K.K. Slider
Kensuke Kimachi
King Boo
King Hippo
Knuckle Joe
Koume/Kotake
Kumatora
Laughing Dog
Lego Guy
Louie
Lu Bu
Majora
Marina Lightyear
Mask-Based Link
Megaman Volnutt
Megaman.exe
Mia
Micaiah
Miror B
Missingno
Muddy Mole
Nightmare (Kirby)
Nightmare (Soul Calibur)
Nintendog
Oguma
Phoenix Wright
Pico
Pious Augustus
Plusle/Minun
Polar Bear
Poo
Professor E. Gadd
Professor Layton
Rad Spencer
Reshiram
Ricky Winterborn
Rob Haywood
Roto/Loto
Ryu (Street Fighter)
Shadow the Hedgehog
Sheriff
Shigeru Miyamoto
Shiida
Sora
Sothe
Stanley the Bug-Man
Tails
Waluigi
Wesker
Zekrom
Zelgius
Zero
Zora
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"YOU ARE IMPRESSED BY THE SEMICOLON USE AND, THEREFORE, CONSENT TO SEXUAL CONGRESS. AWESOME." -Dinosaur Comics #1762
#6MottmanPosted 1/2/2013 8:06:02 PM(edited)
So we can suggest anyone not on that list?

Then I suggest Shulk from Xenoblade Chronicles. He's the main character of the Nintendo Wii game in question, and he uses his Monado as his weapon (kinda a cross between a sword and a lightsaber) and has the ability to see visions of the future.
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My name is Mottman, and I approve this message.
"Champions don't whine, they win!" - Vangarre from Xenoblade Chronicles
#7LegendofLegaiaPosted 1/2/2013 8:03:03 PM
Genesis Dragon posted...
Probable
Bowser Jr.

Plausible
Toad

Very Unlikely
Waluigi


I like this list.
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Ninten/Giygas/Porky/Masked Man_Ridley_Black Shadow_Little Mac_Animal Crosser_Toad/Bowser Jr._Mega Man_Mewtwo_Palutena and Terra FOR SMASH! / = Either one
#8Genesis Dragon(Topic Creator)Posted 1/2/2013 8:04:04 PM
NEW LIST - STILL UNDER CONSTRUCTION
This is the new list, where characters from the old list will go once I've reviewed them and listened to comments! You can recommend changes to characters on here as well, though I encourage you to go to the old list first since I'll be adding characters at a slow and steady pace from there to here.

Reasonable

Plausible

Marginal

Slim

Unlikely

Laughing Dog
Laughing Dog

Possibly Ineligible
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"YOU ARE IMPRESSED BY THE SEMICOLON USE AND, THEREFORE, CONSENT TO SEXUAL CONGRESS. AWESOME." -Dinosaur Comics #1762
#9MichaelollPosted 1/2/2013 8:04:44 PM
Due to Mario Super Sluggers and Princess Daisy in her sports outfit being in that game, I see Daisy coming in with her sports outfit, thus being not as much of a clone if she was in her dress. Also, after Kid Icarus was made, they stated they would work on this game. Mario Tennis Open was made after that.. where Daisy had her sports outfit.

Thus I see Daisy a bit more likely with NAMCO's treatment with her [gave her a stage both day AND night and made her the first character to talk in the intro. made her important, etc.]
#10DynasticAnthonyPosted 1/2/2013 8:06:40 PM
Fluff, Sylux and Ryu Hayabusa over Waluigi? WTF?

Anyways, (if I can), suggest: Waluigi, Leon S. Kennedy and Frank West.
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Tom Nook, Waluigi, Frank West and Leon S. Kennedy for Smash Bros. 4!
I hope they add Waluigi to Smash Bros. 4 to piss off everyone who hates him.