Rate Their Chances Reboot: Day 34: Ryu (Street Fighter), Lucas, and Toon Link

#1PaulKagebeinPosted 2/1/2013 12:25:07 PM
Today's character is Ryu, from Capcom's Street Fighter.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryu_(Street_Fighter)

Today also features Lucas, Smash Bros. veteran.

Today also features a revote for Toon Link, veteran for the Smash series. A revote seems in order after the announcement of The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker HD.

Michaeloll won the prediction for Falco, and has 20 nominations! Everyone else has 10 nominations because it is my first day as host. Starting tomorrow, everyone has 5 nominations.

Tomorrow's character is Baby Mario. You can predict the score for Baby Mario. The closest prediction will receive 20 nominations as opposed to 5.

Here are the results for yesterday's characters:
Falco Lombardi - 89.07%
Ness - 97.69%
Bomberman - 23.62%
Simon Belmont - 24.04%
Llord Irving - 31.00%
Koopa Troopa - 2.22%
Blooper - 2.58%
Angry Birds - 0.22%
Dunsparce - 0.31%
Commander Shepard - 1.71%
Bowser Jr. (Revote) - 46.65%

PSA: I will be taking over for DynasticAnthony until his computer situation is resolved. I have hosted Rate Their Chances in the past, and am glad to do so again temporarily.

This is a daily series where you rate the chances of a character becoming playable in the next installment of Super Smash Bros. For those not familiar, using as objective of a criteria as possible you will give a percentage of how likely you think the day's character is to make it into the game when it comes out. PLEASE read the rules if this is your first time participating.

Rules:

1. You objectively rate the character's chances of being playable on a scale of 0.01% to 99.99% For example, if you give a character say, an 80%, you consider them a probable edition. A 15% on the other hand means they are pretty unlikely. A 52% might mean decent, but not highly likely chances. Any extreme outliers or troll voting will not be counted in the day's score. Don't attempt to heighten or lower the score because you don't like where it is now. Try to be as unbiased as possible. I do understand nobody can be completely unbiased, but please remember this is not a popularity contest.

2. Please give a reasoning for your score. I strongly encourage discussion, preferably in the form of pros and cons. Pros might include significance to their series and relevancy overall, iconicness, popularity, etc. Cons might include a lack of any of the above, etc. Please make sure that your posts have clearly defined pros and cons, but feel free to elaborate on them as much as you'd like. The moveset potential and too big arguments are not allowed. Also, be sure what you say about "Sakurai's words." As he could easily go back on his words sometimes.

3. All candidates will be decided based on nominations that people make of who they want to rate. Each day, every user gets 5 votes to spread however they like as nominations. The character that has the most nominations will be the next character voted on.

4. Nominations must be for a character who has appeared on at least one game on a Nintendo console. 1st, 2nd, or 3rd party, and they must have originated in a video game.

5. Do not fight or flame in this topic. Do not start arguments and do not add to them. This is a fun thing that should be enjoyed.

6. You must provide an explanation otherwise your vote will not be counted. Please remember, no bias. If your post contains bias, it will simply be skipped without warning.

7. You can predict scores for characters for characters that are coming the next day. The winner of that will receive x20 nominations. I always do the scores right. If you do the scores and don't get the same result, some votes may be skipped because of the rules or bias. All scores will end in a 5 or a 0 depending on what's closer every 5 days.
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Pokemon White FC - 3225 1582 0350
#2PaulKagebein(Topic Creator)Posted 2/1/2013 12:25:49 PM
VETERANS:
1. Ness (Mother) - 97.69%
2. Jigglypuff (Pokemon) - 93.42%
3. Falco Lombardi (Star Fox) -89.07%
4. R.O.B. (Robot) - 86.36%
5. Lucario (Pokemon) - 77.61%
6. Mewtwo (Pokemon) - 70.06%
7. Ike (Fire Emblem) - 62.83%
8. Toon Link (The Legend of Zelda) - 52.95%
9. Roy (Fire Emblem) - 50.92%
10. Young Link (The Legend of Zelda) - 23.68%
11. Dr. Mario (Dr. Mario/Mario Bros.) - 22.45%
12. Pichu (Pokemon) - 17.80%

SPECIAL:
1. Mii (Nintendo) - 43.87%
2. Original Character (Smash Bros.) - 11.25%
3. Non-Specific Action Figure (Nintendo) - 4.89%

NEWCOMERS:
1. Palutena (Kid Icarus) - 80.87%
2. Little Mac (Punch-Out!!) - 77.12%
3. King K. Rool (Donkey Kong) - 72.52%
4. Pac-Man (Pac-Man) - 69.59% [NAMCO]
5. Chrom (Fire Emblem) - 68.88%
6. Ridley (Metroid) - 63.35%
7. Shulk (Xenoblade Chronicles) - 62.84%
8. Isaac (Golden Sun) - 60.16%
9. Takamaru (Nazo no Murasame-jo) - 58.50%
10. Saki Amamiya (Sin & Punishment) - 50.00%

11. Mega Man (Mega Man) - 47.33% [CAPCOM]
12. Bowser Jr. (Mario Bros.) - 46.65%
13. Toad (Mario Bros.) - 46.01%
14. Lip (Panel de Pon/Puzzle League) - 45.80%
15. Starfy (The Legendary Starfy) - 44.31%
16. Ghirahim (The Legend of Zelda) - 43.81%
17. Dixie Kong (Donkey Kong) - 43.43%
18. Bayonetta (Bayonetta) - 39.63% [PLATINUM]
19. Waluigi (Mario Bros.) - 39.00%
20. Daisy (Mario Bros.) - 35.71%
21. Animal Crosser (Animal Crossing) - 34.16%
22. Mona (Wario) - 33.98%
23. Anna (Fire Emblem) - 33.50%
24. Paper Mario (Paper Mario) - 31.95%
25. Lloyd Irving (Tales) -31.00% [NAMCO]
26. Tom Nook (Animal Crossing) - 30.09%
27. Professor Layton (Professor Layton) - 29.55% [LEVEL-5]
28. "Wonderful Joe" (The Wonderful 101) - 27.10%
29. Zoroark (Pokemon) - 27.07%
30. Chibi-Robo (Chibi-Robo) - 25.33%
31. Masked Man/Claus (Mother) - 24.50%
32. Simon Belmont (Castlevania) - 24.04% [KONAMI]
33. Bomberman (Bomberman) -23.62% [KONAMI]
34. Ashley (Wario) - 21.98%
35. Lyn (aka Lyndis) (Fire Emblem) - 21.00%
36. Rosalina (Mario Bros.) - 19.50%
37. Fawful (Mario Bros.) - 19.33%
38. Mach Rider (Mach Rider) - 17.78%
39. Tiny Kong (Donkey Kong) - 14.64%
40. Leon S. Kennedy (Resident Evil) - 13.50% [CAPCOM]
41. Frank West (Dead Rising) - 11.83% [CAPCOM]
42. King Hippo (Punch-Out!!) - 11.08%
43. King Boo (Mario Bros.) - 9.55%
44. K.K. Slider (Animal Crossing) - 9.00%
45. Toadette (Mario Bros.) - 9.21%
46. Ruka Minazuki (Fatal Frame) - 8.27% [TECMO]
47. Magnus (Kid Icarus) - 8.14%
48. Albert Wesker (Resident Evil) - 7.36% [CAPCOM]
49. Dark Pit (Kid Icarus) - 6.00%
50. Groose (Legend of Zelda) - 5.90%
51. Boo (Super Mario) - 5.43%
52. Mr. Resetti (Animal Crossing) - 4.70%
53. Dark Bowser (Mario Bros.) - 2.94%
54. Honey Queen (Mario Bros.) - 2.71%
55. Blooper (Mario Bros.) - 2.58%
56. Koopa Troopa (Mario Bros.) - 2.22%
57. Commander Shepard (Mass Effect) - 1.71% [BIOWARE of EA]
58. King of the Red Lions (The Legend of Zelda) - 1.65%
59. Midbus (Mario Bros.) - 1.64%
60. Proto Man (Mega Man) - 0.64% [CAPCOM]
61. Dunsparce (Pokemon) - 0.31%
62. Angry Birds (Angry Birds) - 0.22% [ROVIO]

NOMINATIONS:
Epona x100
Baby Peach x70
Baby Daisy x70
Captain Olimar x55
Boro x50
Micaiah x50
Black Shadow x50
Midna x40
Impa x30
Tetra/Toon Zelda x30
Alucard x25
Tetra x25
Goemon x25
Sherriff x25
Sonic x25
Captain Falcon x25
Donkey Kong Jr. x20
Sho x20
Hades x20
Wild Gunman x20
Naked Snake/Big Boss x20
Navi x20
Dillon x15
Quote x15
Captain Viridian x10
Poochy x5
Koopa Troopa x5
Blooper x5
Angry Birds x5
Dunsparce x5
Commander Shepard x5
Vaati x5

RE-VOTE NOMINATIONS:
Chrom x45
Starfy x15
Chrom x5
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Pokemon White FC - 3225 1582 0350
#3UberPyro64Posted 2/1/2013 12:40:06 PM
Ryu: 15%.

Sakurai did say a Capcom rep was possible. And if they do in fact hate Mega Man then Ryu is next up in line.

Lucas: 95%.

I see no reason why they would remove him. He and Ness are all Mother's got and they both rep it together perfectly.

Toon Link: 80%.

With TWWHD coming, it seems he is still relevant. Whether he is still a clone or not is another story.
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My SSB4 Roster: http://imageshack.us/a/img543/3938/potentialsmashreps3rost.png
#4DynasticAnthonyPosted 2/1/2013 1:38:22 PM
Chrom was supposed to be revoted today. He's at x50, not x45.
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Tom Nook, Waluigi, Leon S. Kennedy, Chrom, Ghirahim, Frank West and King K. Rool for Smash Bros. 4!
R.I.P. HylianCyndaquil aka Holly. I'll miss ya! :(
#5PlasmaCannonPosted 2/1/2013 1:52:14 PM(edited)
Ryu: 12.5%

If Capcom gets a rep it will be Megaman and nobody else and even that happening is very unlikely.

Lucas: 87.5%

There is no reason for him to go unless they go nuts and cut all JP only characters from this game which would be silly to do.

Toon Link: 12.5%

Number one on the chopping block. Clone, newer and/or more deserving options for the spotlight, and only one Link is needed in Smash. This could also work in reverse too in that Toon Link stays and the other Link gets cut but that is unlikely.

Nominate:

Captain Falcon x 10
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Don't forget. Always, somewhere, someone is fighting for you. As long as you remember her, you are not alone.
#6tehponycornPosted 2/1/2013 2:02:10 PM
Ryu: 55%
He's the most likely Street Fighter character, but faces steep competition from Megaman and to an extent Phoenix Wright.

Lucas: 90%
Tough to say on this one. He appeared recently in Brawl and was kind of a clone. If they de-clone him, I'd say 100% Only time will tell.

Toon Link: 100%
With Wind Waker HD coming out soon, I think the character is still relevant. (Toon Link refuses to die!) I just wish they'd de-clone him, there was honestly no point in using Link once you got Toon Link, he was faster, had better versions of his attacks, etc. He's still gonna get in either way.

And since Chrom was supposed to be voted for:

Chrom: 100%
No doubt he's going to be in this. He's the newest lord from what's looking to be a smash hit for the 3DS, has gotten great reviews, and is looking to be just in time, if they start now, they can make Chrom just in time for release. (obviously this game is getting pushed back a few times.) Also, to all the people who whine "He's just another Blue Haired, Sword Wielding loser!" He's also the most relevant FE character right now. (Besides the Avatar/MU/Robin) He can also wield LANCES! That makes for a ranged attack. And more moveset diversity. He's probably getting into this.
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Does your SSB4 roster have Shulk?...No....Then I hate it.
An Epic Fail is failing Like a Boss
#7LegendofLegaiaPosted 2/1/2013 3:12:50 PM(edited)
x10 Navi

Predict 15% for Baby Mario
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Ninten/Giygas/Porky/Masked Man_Ridley_Black Shadow_Little Mac_Animal Crosser_Toad/Bowser Jr._Mega Man_Mewtwo_Palutena and Terra FOR SMASH! / = Either one
#8Stun427Posted 2/1/2013 3:37:23 PM
Ryu: 30% Capcoms rep would most likely be Megaman but should he be tossed aside Ryu is the next in line.

Lucas: 95% There is no good reason for him to be cut at all.

Toon Link: 25% His time in Smash is over. Unneeded 2nd Link is a mistake Smash has been making since Melee and it needs to stop. The Zelda series has acquired many more viable reps since Brawl in addition to many that didn't get in Pre-Brawl and as such give Mr. Clone some competition.


Lets predict 4% and nominate Micaiah x 10.
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Fun fact: Playing the nostalgia goggles card shows you have nothing of value to say and are grasping at straws to argue with someone.
#9MichaelollPosted 2/1/2013 4:17:05 PM
Ryu- 40%. his series isn't relevant to nintendo. slime in dragon quest is more relevant

Lucas-20%. his similar moveset to ness may force him to be cut.

Toon Link- 99%. Tetra/Toon Zelda will be a new playayble character as well due to the wii u game

baby peach x10
baby daisy x10

predict 10%
#10MichaelollPosted 2/1/2013 4:23:23 PM
Tomorrow's character is not baby mario. He literally has no noms. I believe you meant to say Baby Peach. Also Blooper and Koopa have no noms.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/633202-super-smash-bros-wii-u/65325416