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Rate Their Chances Reboot: Day 35: The Babies and Chrom (Revote)

#1PaulKagebeinPosted 2/2/2013 10:57:12 AM
Today's characters are the Mario Babies! Each one of these will get ranked differently, even if they all end up with very similar scores. (You can use similar or the same reasons for each if you score each one similarly).

Baby Mario Bros. - This is a pairing of Baby Mario and Baby Luigi
Baby Mario - http://www.mariowiki.com/Baby_Mario (standalone)
Baby Luigi - http://www.mariowiki.com/Baby_Luigi (standalone)
Baby Peach - http://www.mariowiki.com/Baby_Peach
Baby Daisy - http://www.mariowiki.com/Baby_Daisy

Today also features a revote for Chrom of the very-soon-to-be-released highly acclaimed Fire Emblem: Awakening.


There was no prediction for yesterday's character, so nobody won the prediction noms. Everyone has 5 nominations today.

Tomorrow's character is Epona. You can predict the score for Epona. The closest prediction will receive 20 nominations as opposed to 5.

Here are the results for yesterday's characters:
Ryu - 30.94%
Lucas - 76.25%
Toon Link (Revote) - 68.50%

PSA: I will be taking over for DynasticAnthony until his computer situation is resolved. I have hosted Rate Their Chances in the past, and am glad to do so again temporarily.

This is a daily series where you rate the chances of a character becoming playable in the next installment of Super Smash Bros. For those not familiar, using as objective of a criteria as possible you will give a percentage of how likely you think the day's character is to make it into the game when it comes out. PLEASE read the rules if this is your first time participating.

Rules:

1. You objectively rate the character's chances of being playable on a scale of 0.01% to 99.99% For example, if you give a character say, an 80%, you consider them a probable edition. A 15% on the other hand means they are pretty unlikely. A 52% might mean decent, but not highly likely chances. Any extreme outliers or troll voting will not be counted in the day's score. Don't attempt to heighten or lower the score because you don't like where it is now. Try to be as unbiased as possible. I do understand nobody can be completely unbiased, but please remember this is not a popularity contest.

2. Please give a reasoning for your score. I strongly encourage discussion, preferably in the form of pros and cons. Pros might include significance to their series and relevancy overall, iconicness, popularity, etc. Cons might include a lack of any of the above, etc. Please make sure that your posts have clearly defined pros and cons, but feel free to elaborate on them as much as you'd like. The moveset potential and too big arguments are not allowed. Also, be sure what you say about "Sakurai's words." As he could easily go back on his words sometimes.

3. All candidates will be decided based on nominations that people make of who they want to rate. Each day, every user gets 5 votes to spread however they like as nominations. The character that has the most nominations will be the next character voted on.

4. Nominations must be for a character who has appeared on at least one game on a Nintendo console. 1st, 2nd, or 3rd party, and they must have originated in a video game.

5. Do not fight or flame in this topic. Do not start arguments and do not add to them. This is a fun thing that should be enjoyed.

6. You must provide an explanation otherwise your vote will not be counted. Please remember, no bias. If your post contains bias, it will simply be skipped without warning.

7. You can predict scores for characters for characters that are coming the next day. The winner of that will receive x20 nominations. I always do the scores right. If you do the scores and don't get the same result, some votes may be skipped because of the rules or bias. All scores will end in a 5 or a 0 depending on what's closer every 5 days.
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Pokemon White FC - 3225 1582 0350
#2PaulKagebein(Topic Creator)Posted 2/2/2013 10:57:29 AM
VETERANS:
1. Ness (Mother) - 97.69%
2. Jigglypuff (Pokemon) - 93.42%
3. Falco Lombardi (Star Fox) -89.07%
4. R.O.B. (Robot) - 86.36%
5. Lucario (Pokemon) - 77.61%
6. Lucas (Mother) 76.25%
7. Mewtwo (Pokemon) - 70.06%
8. Toon Link (The Legend of Zelda) - 68.50%
9. Ike (Fire Emblem) - 62.83%
10. Roy (Fire Emblem) - 50.92%
11. Young Link (The Legend of Zelda) - 23.68%
12. Dr. Mario (Dr. Mario/Super Mario) - 22.45%
13. Pichu (Pokemon) - 17.80%

SPECIAL:
1. Mii (Nintendo) - 43.87%
2. Original Character (Smash Bros.) - 11.25%
3. Non-Specific Action Figure (Nintendo) - 4.89%

NEWCOMERS:
1. Palutena (Kid Icarus) - 80.87%
2. Little Mac (Punch-Out!!) - 77.12%
3. King K. Rool (Donkey Kong) - 72.52%
4. Pac-Man (Pac-Man) - 69.59% [NAMCO]
5. Chrom (Fire Emblem) - 68.88%
6. Ridley (Metroid) - 63.35%
7. Shulk (Xenoblade Chronicles) - 62.84%
8. Isaac (Golden Sun) - 60.16%
9. Takamaru (Nazo no Murasame-jo) - 58.50%
10. Saki Amamiya (Sin & Punishment) - 50.00%

11. Mega Man (Mega Man) - 47.33% [CAPCOM]
12. Bowser Jr. (Super Mario) - 46.65%
13. Toad (Super Mario) - 46.01%
14. Lip (Panel de Pon/Puzzle League) - 45.80%
15. Starfy (The Legendary Starfy) - 44.31%
16. Ghirahim (The Legend of Zelda) - 43.81%
17. Dixie Kong (Donkey Kong) - 43.43%
18. Bayonetta (Bayonetta) - 39.63% [PLATINUM]
19. Waluigi (Super Mario) - 39.00%
20. Daisy (Super Mario) - 35.71%
21. Animal Crosser (Animal Crossing) - 34.16%
22. Mona (Wario) - 33.98%
23. Anna (Fire Emblem) - 33.50%
24. Paper Mario (Paper Mario) - 31.95%
25. Lloyd Irving (Tales) -31.00% [NAMCO]
26. Ryu (Street Fighter) - 30.94% [CAPCOM]
27. Tom Nook (Animal Crossing) - 30.09%
28. Professor Layton (Professor Layton) - 29.55% [LEVEL-5]
29. "Wonderful Joe" (The Wonderful 101) - 27.10% [PLATINUM]
30. Zoroark (Pokemon) - 27.07%
31. Chibi-Robo (Chibi-Robo) - 25.33%
32. Masked Man/Claus (Mother) - 24.50%
33. Simon Belmont (Castlevania) - 24.04% [KONAMI]
34. Bomberman (Bomberman) -23.62% [KONAMI]
35. Ashley (Wario) - 21.98%
36. Lyn (aka Lyndis) (Fire Emblem) - 21.00%
37. Rosalina (Super Mario) - 19.50%
38. Fawful (Super Mario) - 19.33%
39. Mach Rider (Mach Rider) - 17.78%
40. Tiny Kong (Donkey Kong) - 14.64%
41. Leon S. Kennedy (Resident Evil) - 13.50% [CAPCOM]
42. Frank West (Dead Rising) - 11.83% [CAPCOM]
43. King Hippo (Punch-Out!!) - 11.08%
44. King Boo (Super Mario) - 9.55%
45. K.K. Slider (Animal Crossing) - 9.00%
46. Toadette (Super Mario) - 9.21%
47. Ruka Minazuki (Fatal Frame) - 8.27% [TECMO]
48. Magnus (Kid Icarus) - 8.14%
49. Albert Wesker (Resident Evil) - 7.36% [CAPCOM]
50. Dark Pit (Kid Icarus) - 6.00%
51. Groose (Legend of Zelda) - 5.90%
52. Boo (Mario Bros.) - 5.43%
53. Mr. Resetti (Animal Crossing) - 4.70%
54. Dark Bowser (Super Mario) - 2.94%
55. Honey Queen (Super Mario) - 2.71%
56. Blooper (Super Mario) - 2.58%
57. Koopa Troopa (Super Mario) - 2.22%
58. Commander Shepard (Mass Effect) - 1.71% [BIOWARE of EA]
59. King of Red Lions (The Legend of Zelda) - 1.65%
60. Midbus (Super Mario) - 1.64%
61. Proto Man (Mega Man) - 0.64% [CAPCOM]
62. Dunsparce (Pokemon) - 0.31%
63. Angry Birds (Angry Birds) - 0.22% [ROVIO]

NOMINATIONS:
Micaiah x60
Captain Olimar x55
Boro x50
Black Shadow x50
Midna x40
Captain Falcon x35
Impa x30
Tetra/Toon Zelda x30
Navi x30
Hades x30
Alucard x25
Tetra x25
Goemon x25
Sherriff x25
Sonic x25
Donkey Kong Jr. x20
Sho x20
Wild Gunman x20
Naked Snake/Big Boss x20
Dillon x15
Quote x15
Captain Viridian x10
Flint x10
Poochy x5
Vaati x5

RE-VOTE NOMINATIONS:
Starfy x15
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Pokemon White FC - 3225 1582 0350
#3DynasticAnthonyPosted 2/2/2013 12:08:46 PM
Baby Mario and Luigi - 1% - Too much competition but with both of them as a team, makes them likelier.

Baby Mario and Luigi both get a 0.50%, as singles. Again, way too much competition.

Baby Peach and Daisy both get a 0.01%. Competition, nobody requests them at all.

Chrom - 97% - After playing Awakening, it's great. He's very popular, relevant and requested.

Pass my xfive noms to poster below.
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Tom Nook, Waluigi, Leon S. Kennedy, Chrom, Ghirahim, Frank West and King K. Rool for Smash Bros. 4!
R.I.P. HylianCyndaquil aka Holly. I'll miss ya! :(
#4MichaelollPosted 2/2/2013 12:10:45 PM
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/633202-super-smash-bros-wii-u/65339646

on page one i made a prediction of 10%
#5UberPyro64Posted 2/2/2013 12:14:11 PM
Chrom: 95%.

Easily the most likely newcomer due to how successful (both critically and in sales) Awakening is here and in Japan. Chrom is also the most recent lord and is extremely popular as well with SMT X FE, it seems a new title won't be around for a while.

Babies all get 1%. Because besides being babies, they have very little moveset potential and are not requested or popular in the slightest.
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My SSB4 Roster: http://imageshack.us/a/img543/3938/potentialsmashreps3rost.png
#6MichaelollPosted 2/2/2013 12:17:20 PM
toon zelda x10. not tetra , not toonzelda/tetra, but toon zelda.

Baby Mario Bros. - .01% Ice Climbers will most likely be the only pairing. And Baby Luigi isn't relevant, i.e. cut from Mario Tennis Open

Baby Mario -.01%. Due to the fact Paper Mario might be a character, or even Shadow Mario/Metal Mario, or Dr. Mario returning, why would we want another clone Mario?

Baby Luigi -50%. It depends on whether or not he appears in Yoshi's Land. He did not appear in Mario Tennis Open, so he isn't too relevant.

Baby Peach - 90%. She appeared in Mario Tennis Open, is relevant, and there aren't a Dr. Peach Shadow Peach Metal Peach or any other peach version in her way. Didn't sakurai say he didn't want clones? Baby Peach could offer a unique style of play. Who wouldn't want to fight as a baby?

Baby Daisy - 80%. There is no playable Daisy. She would definitely not be a clone of anyone if she was added in. Her percent is lower since she did not appear in Mario Tennis Open and isn't too relevant. Yoshi's Land might boost or hurt her chances even more. Thus she is higher than Baby Luigi [for if she came in, there would be no adult/clone of her] but lower than Baby Peach [she did not appear in Mario Tennis Open]. Also, if Daisy is a playable character in this next smash game, then Baby Daisy's chances would drop a bit.

Chrom- 87%. He is very relevant. The main problem is how many reps should fire emblem have. Who would be cut? It's a mystery for now.

predict- 15%
#7PlasmaCannonPosted 2/2/2013 2:05:27 PM
All the babies: 0.01%

So much competition and so many others from their own series would be picked before any of them.


Chrom: 25%


Trying my best to ignore how much of a terrible addition he would be this is yet another character whos chances are overinflated. The bottom line here is Fire Emblem can do better than sword wielders and that's just the way it is. What really gets this guy is the unknown, yep the Wii U is out and who's to say another Fire Emblem game doesn't come out before SSB4 and knock this guy off. In the end 1 in 4 is extremely generous for Krom.


What I said the first time only difference is a rating change from 1 in 6 (16.67%) to 1 in 4. This characters chances are bar none the most overestimated of any character suggested for Smash.

Nominate:

Captain Falcon x 5
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Don't forget. Always, somewhere, someone is fighting for you. As long as you remember her, you are not alone.
#8TheSkullKnightPosted 2/2/2013 2:16:25 PM
1% for babies because who knows, maybe the babies would all be on a go kart like in Double Dash. Still probably not happening.

99% for Chrom. His game is popular and highly rated. He's most likely going to get in.
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U4ThPAW5sd0
#9Doug314Posted 2/2/2013 3:06:33 PM
Baby Mario Bros. - 1% probably the most likely baby character on here since at least they'd be more unique, but this game shouldn't be about beating up babies. They're okay for racing but shouldn't be in fighting like this.

The rest of the babies would just be too much of clones and with really not much advantage when we could have a better second version of each of them that wouldn't be putting a baby in a fighting game. Even a striker Daisy would be better.
Baby Mario - 0.01%
Baby Luigi - 0.01%
Baby Peach - 0.01%
Baby Daisy - 0.01%

Chrom is one of the most unbelievably overrated characters on here. I know whenever a game is released it gets significantly temporarily overrated, like Magnus with KI:U and Ghirahim with SS. In any case, I think the demand for him won't be all that high by the time this game is released. A lot of people already don't want him and just expect him. But consider this, once we're done with FE Awakening, and then about 2 years later, we probably won't remember all that much different about Ike and Chrom. Most of us will probably be okay with them just giving Ike a Chrom costume. FE can do better than 3 sword users and Ike's too popular from brawl to get axed, and Marth is even safer. And even the for advertizing purposes doesn't work since Chrom's games will probably have stopped being produced by then. So then the goal should be more about making the game fun and with unique characters rather than adding a character too similar to ones we already have when possible. And in this case, it's definitely possible. 35%.

Nominate Robin x5 (or whatever you want to call this character) http://fireemblem.wikia.com/wiki/Avatar_(Awakening)
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Palutena, Isaac, Ridley, King K. Rool, and Anna for SSB Wii U and SSB 3DS!
SSB is the best series ever made!
#10tehponycornPosted 2/2/2013 3:19:27 PM
Chrom: 100%
No doubt he's going to be in this. He's the newest lord from what's looking to be a smash hit for the 3DS, has gotten great reviews, and is looking to be just in time, if they start now, they can make Chrom just in time for release. (obviously this game is getting pushed back a few times.) Also, to all the people who whine "He's just another Blue Haired, Sword Wielding loser!" He's also the most relevant FE character right now. (Besides the Avatar/MU/Robin) He can also wield LANCES! That makes for a ranged attack. And more moveset diversity. He's probably getting into this.

Baby Bros: 0%
Mario already has enough reps as is, and they face a LOT of competition, Daisy, Waluigi, Toad, and Bowser Jr. are all more likelier choices.

Baby Mario: 0%
Same reasoning as Baby Bros.

Baby Luigi: 0%
Same reasoning as Baby Bros.

Baby Daisy: 0%
Same reasoning as Baby Bros.

Baby Peach: 0%
Same reasoning as Baby Bros.
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Does your SSB4 roster have Shulk?...No....Then I hate it.
An Epic Fail is failing Like a Boss