Which 3rd party characters will we get?
The thing that most people forget about Namco is that developing the game =/= a Namco rep being more likely. Sakurai did not select them to help out with the character roster, they were, like you said, helping out with the game play. It doesn't mean as much as most people think.
Also Snake and Sonic both have 50% chance of returning. Snake could easily get replaced by Big Boss but since he is also known as Snake (and looks nearly identical) that shouldn't be a big deal. Sonic will return as he is.
I don't think you can quantify it. We don't really know if Sonic and Snake had a "guest character" status like other fighting games have, or if they are a Solid (see? i did a thing) part of the roster. So in one case they are almost guaranteed not to return, while in the other they have a decent chance of returning. However, you don't know which situation is really more likely.
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UberPyro64 posted...Also Snake and Sonic both have 50% chance of returning. Snake could easily get replaced by Big Boss but since he is also known as Snake (and looks nearly identical) that shouldn't be a big deal. Sonic will return as he is.
Hence why I said 50% lol.
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Maybe, but they have more going for them then any other company at this point. The two companies make games together all of the time, and have a very good relationship. It'd be a bit weird if they didn't get some sort of representation.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but before Brawl, Konami never had a cross-over with Nintendo, especially not Solid Snake and yet he got in. There's also no evidence that Sega crossing over with Nintendo before (most evidently being Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games) contributed to Sonic's inclusion.
In Brawl, Snake was added because of a personal relationship, and Sonic was added due to high demand. They probably wanted to cap the third parties there. The same argument you're using against Pac-man can just as well be used against Mega Man.
I think Sakurai is looking for a character that has more than just iconic status to go off of (not saying it couldn't help). And Sakurai did mention 1-2 more third-party reps after Snake, so he was open to the idea of having up to three third-party characters. I think if Sakurai thought Pac-Man's super iconic status warranted a 3rd third-party slot, he would have gone to after him.
Sonic's demand was massive. Mega Man's is just high.
I'd like to say that Sonic's demand was beyond massive because almost everyone wanted him in. As for Mega Man, he's one of the very few characters that the majority would want to see. I'd say that chances are, a character that most want to see in the next Smash game has very high demand at least.
I do think he is the most likely 3rd party newcomers, that ISN'T from Namco. Demand isn't everything.
True, but we have to remember that Sonic got in because of being the most wanted newcomer. Of course popularity alone won't get a character in (see, Geno), but massive popularity along with being important to the video game industry are what make great third-party choices. The combination of the two is the main reason why Sonic was by far the best choice for a 3rd-party addition and being important to the video game industry alone with being likely the most wanted newcomer is why I feel Mega Man is the best choice for a 3rd-party (and the most likely as well). Pac-Man's is no doubt very important, but he lacks the massive fan demand that Sonic and Mega Man has (and as I said before, a lot of his popularity for Smash is artificial).
Then why wasn't he added earlier, if it goes back that far?
Because Sakurai had no intentions of adding third-parties back then. But it does show that the fan base for Mega Man has existed even during pre-Melee time. If Sakurai noticed it during that time, then he's sure is going to see the demand for Mega Man's inclusion in Smash 4.
Pac-man is much more iconic than Mega Man. Everyone knows who Pac-man is. Mega Man, as much as it saddens me to say, is a bit outdated these days and not as knows by the younger generation.
My point wasn't that Mega Man was as iconic if not more than Pac-Man, but that Mega Man is an iconic character in his own right. Just like Pac-Man is seen as the face for Namco, most people associate Mega Man as the face of Capcom.
Want Mega Man in Super Smash Bros. 4? Check out this thread at Smashboards that I'm the leader of: http://smashboards.com/threads/the-official-mega-man-for-ssb4-thread-most-wanted-3rd-party-newcomer.324266/
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