Some findings regarding release date (found by mr_white2088)

#31rdnythesaviorPosted 9/10/2012 5:11:57 PM(edited)
LordPoncho posted...
I was just noting the flaw in his argument. He used the fiscal forecast as an argument, but seems to forget the fiscal year stretches into 2013, therefore rendering that argument invalid.


Maybe, if you had spent more of your teenage years developing brains, you'd be able to understand what I say, and what I mean when I say what I say.

You expect GTA V to make ~900 million dollars in just three short weeks? No. GTA IV took two and a half years to make 990 million which means that if GTA V performs slightly better than IV, they'll make ~250 million in the first month. Which also means, that GTA V can not release in March 2013.

If Take Two has any hope of even coming close to the amount the projected, GTA V has to be released in 2012.
---
"I don't want to say 'I Told You So' ...so, Welcome to Miami!"
GT: rodneythesavior
#32LordPonchoPosted 9/10/2012 5:48:10 PM
rdnythesavior posted...
Blah blah blah, I have no valid argument other than some outdated statistics, so instead, I'm going to insult you and pretend I know you so that my argument is somehow valid.


Buddy. I've got close friends in the industry due to choice of college (graduates who have gone on to work for Activision, Ubi, the likes) and you truly do not know what this industry is worth today or how it even operates.

Next time you try to use an insult on me, think twice. You just look like a complete moron when you do.
---
"lol der was a shdow on my carpet but ti looked like a stane and tried to clen it up but ti was a shadoow" -Ghost4800
#33LordPonchoPosted 9/10/2012 5:51:48 PM
I'll even elaborate for you, so you can understand how flawed your logic is.

A. There's this thing called inflation. Things cost more.
B. The gaming industry has blown up exponentially since 2008, look at COD, it sells numbers greater than their estimates in a single day.
C. Fiscal forecasts are just that...forecasts. Take Two has the benefit of the doubt in that investors know they have a huge title on their hand. It's pretty much an infallible investment for them. Whether they miss their targets at this point is almost irtelevent as investors will always invest in GTA.
---
"lol der was a shdow on my carpet but ti looked like a stane and tried to clen it up but ti was a shadoow" -Ghost4800
#34LordPonchoPosted 9/10/2012 6:36:33 PM(edited)
LordPoncho posted...
I'll even elaborate for you, so you can understand how flawed your logic is.

A. There's this thing called inflation. Things cost more.
B. The gaming industry has blown up exponentially since 2008, look at COD, it sells numbers greater than their estimates in a single day.
C. Fiscal forecasts are just that...forecasts. Take Two has the benefit of the doubt in that investors know they have a huge title on their hand. It's pretty much an infallible investment for them. Whether they miss their targets at this point is almost irtelevent as investors will always invest in GTA.


D. GTA IV sold $310 mil in it's first 24 hours, exceeding $500 mil in it's first week. Why are you claiming that it took them 2 years to reach $900 mil? To date, the game has sold nearly 8x the amount it did in the first week, meaning it should have easily passed $950 mil in the first year. This really isn't rocket science, $950 mil can be reached in one week with today's sales.

Gah, meant for this to be an edit.to the previous post. My bad for triple posting.
---
"lol der was a shdow on my carpet but ti looked like a stane and tried to clen it up but ti was a shadoow" -Ghost4800
#35CADE FOSTERPosted 9/10/2012 7:00:40 PM
2013 confirmed
---
http://i1050.photobucket.com/albums/s416/Arianfoster/Katy-Perry-Gifs-7.gif http://i1050.photobucket.com/albums/s416/Arianfoster/katy-perry-1.gif
#36mr_white2088Posted 9/10/2012 7:08:51 PM
LordPoncho posted...
LordPoncho posted...
I'll even elaborate for you, so you can understand how flawed your logic is.

A. There's this thing called inflation. Things cost more.
B. The gaming industry has blown up exponentially since 2008, look at COD, it sells numbers greater than their estimates in a single day.
C. Fiscal forecasts are just that...forecasts. Take Two has the benefit of the doubt in that investors know they have a huge title on their hand. It's pretty much an infallible investment for them. Whether they miss their targets at this point is almost irtelevent as investors will always invest in GTA.


D. GTA IV sold $310 mil in it's first 24 hours, exceeding $500 mil in it's first week. Why are you claiming that it took them 2 years to reach $900 mil? To date, the game has sold nearly 8x the amount it did in the first week, meaning it should have easily passed $950 mil in the first year. This really isn't rocket science, $950 mil can be reached in one week with today's sales.

Gah, meant for this to be an edit.to the previous post. My bad for triple posting.


Just to tag everything you've said the last Call of Duty made 775 million in 5 days. It wont take GTA V very long to post 1.1 billion with a similar response.
---
http://z3.invisionfree.com/The_wastes/index.php?act=idx
Game of Thrones Board: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/585257-wall-defender
#37rdnythesaviorPosted 9/10/2012 7:09:53 PM
LordPoncho posted...
LordPoncho posted...
snip


I noticed that I was wrong in my previous statement. It took GTA IV until 2011 to make $99,000,000. That's 22 Million copies at ~$45 per copy for each game. And let's admit, I'm being extremely generous at $45 per copy, we both know publishers get less than that for each game sold.

You call me an idiot, and say I know nothing, when you can't even compute simple math.
You say that GTA IV sold $500 million in the first week? That's a little less that 12 million copies. Now here's a fun fact for you. GTA IV didn't sell 10 million copies until August of 2008. That's four months. Fifteen more weeks than what you're saying it took.

You're forgetting one crucial fact when thinking about sales. They don't stay at their peak for very long. Sales dwindle and die out, make a comeback, fall again. In 2011, they made $99 million dollars from GTA IV at most.

You are right, this isn't rocket science. But it seems that to you, it is.
---
"I don't want to say 'I Told You So' ...so, Welcome to Miami!"
GT: rodneythesavior
#38LordPonchoPosted 9/10/2012 7:29:11 PM(edited)
rdnythesavior posted...
LordPoncho posted...
LordPoncho posted...
snip


I noticed that I was wrong in my previous statement. It took GTA IV until 2011 to make $99,000,000. That's 22 Million copies at ~$45 per copy for each game. And let's admit, I'm being extremely generous at $45 per copy, we both know publishers get less than that for each game sold.

You call me an idiot, and say I know nothing, when you can't even compute simple math.
You say that GTA IV sold $500 million in the first week? That's a little less that 12 million copies. Now here's a fun fact for you. GTA IV didn't sell 10 million copies until August of 2008. That's four months. Fifteen more weeks than what you're saying it took.

You're forgetting one crucial fact when thinking about sales. They don't stay at their peak for very long. Sales dwindle and die out, make a comeback, fall again. In 2011, they made $99 million dollars from GTA IV at most.

You are right, this isn't rocket science. But it seems that to you, it is.


Because it's not simple math. They don't only make money off sold copies. They make money off merchandising, marketing, investments.

If it only made 99 mil, then they list out on money as the costs exceeded 100 mil

Now, your statements really do show how little you know, and everything I have said can be backed up with a simple Google search (which is where I got the dales numbers I posted) can confirm it.

Want infallible proof that I'm right? GTA IV held the record for highest revenue for a game in 24 hours until it was beaten by Modern Warfare 2. The record before GTA IV was Halo 3, at $170 mil, then beaten by GTA IV at $310 mil.

I don't know why you think such numbers are incredible, and the fact that you think they are counteracts against your argument of a 2012 release since even if it did in 2012, according to your line of thought, it would get nowhere near the $900 mil or so that they need.
---
"lol der was a shdow on my carpet but ti looked like a stane and tried to clen it up but ti was a shadoow" -Ghost4800
#39rdnythesaviorPosted 9/10/2012 7:50:12 PM(edited)
LordPoncho posted...
... beaten by GTA IV at $310 mil.

I don't know why you think such numbers are incredible, and the fact that you think they are counteracts against your argument of a 2012 release since even if it did in 2012, according to your line of thought, it would get nowhere near the $900 mil or so that they need.


I'm not arguing the first day sales. I'm arguing the amounts that you claim to have found, and the fact that you apparently think sales are a constant. GTA IV didn't break 10 million copies sold, until August of 2008. If you're going to use the store numbers for the day one sales, you also have to use the store numbers for everything else.

GTA IV shipped plenty more copies, than were sold day one. The people at TTi's plant produce and ship enough copies of the game to make up production/marketing/what have you, costs, and then some. You can't compare shipped units and sold units like that.

GTA IV cost $100 million to make right? That means that they shipped out enough copies to make back that money and a little extra. Just like they did with Max Payne 3.

In order for GTA V to make that kind of money, it has to be released earlier than March 2013. Let me break it down for you.

Take Two ships out __ copies of the game. Corporations receive the shipment of said copies, and distribute them to their stores. When the store sells ~3/4ths of the total bulk, The Corporation places the order for more units. Rinse, repeat.

What you're saying is that Take Two is going to ship roughly 20 million copies of the game on the first batch, when it took the previous installment ~3 years to sell that many? I'll tell you why TT won't ship that many units at once. The distributors wouldn't be able to move that much product for quite some time, leading to sales on the game, and lost profits. Which in turn will deter the distributors from placing orders in the future. Why would you buy something to sell, if you're going to lose money selling it?

You're seriously not making any sense, you're throwing numbers that don't match up, and 'facts' that just aren't true, at me in some sort of deranged attempt to make me believe that you actually know what you're talking about. When, in truth, you don't.
---
"I don't want to say 'I Told You So' ...so, Welcome to Miami!"
GT: rodneythesavior
#40LordPonchoPosted 9/10/2012 7:54:52 PM
rdnythesavior posted...
LordPoncho posted...
... beaten by GTA IV at $310 mil.

I don't know why you think such numbers are incredible, and the fact that you think they are counteracts against your argument of a 2012 release since even if it did in 2012, according to your line of thought, it would get nowhere near the $900 mil or so that they need.


I'm not arguing the first day sales. I'm arguing the amounts that you claim to have found, and the fact that you apparently think sales are a constant. GTA IV didn't break 10 million copies sold, until August of 2008. If you're going to use the store numbers for the day one sales, you also have to use the store numbers for everything else.

GTA IV shipped plenty more copies, than were sold day one. The people at TTi's plant produce and ship enough copies of the game to make up production/marketing/what have you, costs, and then some. You can't compare shipped units and sold units like that.

GTA IV cost $100 million to make right? That means that they shipped out enough copies to make back that money and a little extra. Just like they did with Max Payne 3.

In order for GTA V to make that kind of money, it has to be released earlier than March 2013. Let me break it down for you.

Take Two ships out __ copies of the game. Corporations receive the shipment of said copies, and distribute them to their stores. When the store sells ~3/4ths of the total bulk, The Corporation places the order for more units. Rinse, repeat.

What you're saying is that Take Two is going to ship roughly 20 million copies of the game on the first batch, when it took the previous installment ~3 years to sell that many? I'll tell you why TT won't ship that many units at once. The distributors wouldn't be able to move that much product for quite some time, leading to sales on the game, and lost profits. Which in turn will deter the distributors from placing orders in the future. Why would you buy something to sell, if you're going to lose money selling it?

You're seriously not making any sense, you're throwing numbers that don't match up, and 'facts' that just aren't true, at me in some sort of deranged attempt to make me believe that you actually know what you're talking about. When, in truth, you don't.


Oh boy. Is it even worth arguing with such density? You clearly aren't willing to admit that you may just be wrong (which you are), and you're just looking more and more dense with every post. Games can, and do, sell enough to make 1.1 billion in short periods of time. They also never explicitly stated that they expect GTA V to sell that much, it's mostly he said she said. We don't know what kinds of plans and hopes they have riding on Max Payne 3 for the rest of the year.

But anyways, if CoD has done this multiple years in a row, there's no reason any other game shouldn't be able to. That's the end all, be all point that completely invalidates the fiscal forecast "confirming" 2012.
---
"lol der was a shdow on my carpet but ti looked like a stane and tried to clen it up but ti was a shadoow" -Ghost4800