Rate Their Chances Day 9: Margaret

#1SmashStrikePosted 9/10/2011 9:52:20 PM
Welcome to Rate Their Chances Persona 4: The Ultimate in Mayonaka Arena Edition!

P3MC got 7 votes with an average of 24%. This gets him in 7th place.

The closest prediction was me with 50%. I get 10 noms today.

-History-
For those of you who were never on a Smash Bros board and are not familiar with Rate Their Chances, it is a series where each user gives a percentage on how likely they think a character is to make in a fighting game. Many users ran the long-lasting series on the Brawl board over a span of a year. 7 of the top ten percentages made Brawl in some form or another. Being that I was a regular poster on the pre Brawl boards and now that one of my favorite game series is churning out a fighter, I thought this would a cool to set it up here.

-Rules-
1. A user can rate a character's chances to make P4U on a scale of 0.01% to 99.99%. If a score is way off the mean, such as a score of 99.99% for Desk Cleaning Girl, the score will be scratched so it doesn't throw off the real average. It is encouraged to explain why you give a score, but you don't have to if you really don't want to. Never post an extremely high or low percentage in order to "balance the score". It defeats the purpose of the topics.
2. Every user can have five nominations a day, which they can use all on one character (like +5 Elizabeth) or spread them out over more than one character (like +2 Elizabeth, +2 Theodore, +1 Margaret). The characters each user nominates must be a 1st party or 2nd party character who has appeared in an Atlus game in the past. They also must have originated in a video game. Additionally, a user can attempt to predict the collective average that the On Deck character the next day will receive from all the ratings. The user who predicts the closest to the actual score will get 10 nominations instead of 5.
3. Do not fight or flame in this topic. Do not start arguments either or add to them. This is a fun thing that should be enjoyed.
4. If you don't give the character a rating without giving a good reason why you're unable to (i.e. not knowing who the character is would be a GOOD reason), your nominations will not count.

Example Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/633202-super-smash-bros-wii-u/60289119

-Confirmed Characters-
Yu Narukami
Aigis
Yosuke Hanamura
Chie Satonaka
Yukiko Amagi
Kanji Tatsumi
Teddie

Source: http://www.andriasang.com/e/galleries/2011/09/08/persona_4_ultimate_screens/

-Leaderboard-

-Top Five-

1. Naoto Shirogane: 97.50%
2. Elizabeth: 63%
3. Akihiko Sanada: 45.63%
4. Yukari Takeba: 45%
5. Mitsuru Kirijo: 36.11%

6. Junpei Iori: 34.7%
7. Protagonist (Persona 3): 24%
8. Tohru Adachi: 19.45%

Character of the Day: Margaret
Bio: http://megamitensei.wikia.com/wiki/Margaret

On Deck: Takaya Sakaki

The Nominations List:

Marie/Mary - 25
Izanami - 23
Nanako Dojima - 15
Shadow P3MC - 15
Ken Amada - 9
Korormaru - 4
Demi-Fiend - 2
Ryotaro Dojima - 2
Mitsuo Kubo - 2
Mary (Soul Hackers) - 2
Alice - 1
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Your twisted logic is that of an immature, egotistic brat! - Naoto Shirogane
#2naiba_lucianPosted 9/10/2011 10:56:20 PM
20%. We already have Elizabeth as a far more likely candidate for the 'secret unlockable boss' spot, not to mention that having 2 VR residents in the same character roster would be rather...redundant, considering their similarities.

5 noms for Shadow Minato again.

22.50% prediction for Takaya.
#3HiroRaoPosted 9/11/2011 2:28:32 AM(edited)
Margaret seems far more likely than Elizabeth to me given Margaret is the PERSONA 4 assistant. I'd say 60% chance she'll be in it. If god loves me they'll be a tag team type character and the sisters of the VR can be the ultimate boss.

+5 for Taro Namatame, His fate was left very much open and I wonder if he could still obtain a persona.

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#4naiba_lucianPosted 9/11/2011 3:16:06 AM
HiroRao posted...
Margaret seems far more likely than Elizabeth to me given Margaret is the PERSONA 4 assistant. I'd say 60% chance she'll be in it. If god loves me they'll be a tag team type character and the sisters of the VR can be the ultimate boss.

+5 for Taro Namatame, His fate was left very much open and I wonder if he could still obtain a persona.


Margaret's story is mostly done, whereas Elizabeth's has just begun. Just because the game's called P4U doesn't mean every important plot point has to revolve around 4.

Hell, my best bet is that Aigis' story (mode) is going to be the canon (and most important) one.
#5Xinck1990Posted 9/11/2011 6:35:43 AM
50%, Margaret is a Persona user, but it is kinda iffy as to what Persona she'll use. Plus, she may not know about the tournament sooo....

And I will predict an average of 65% for Takaya.

And nominate Shadow Minato +3, Mitsuo Kubo +1, and Taro Namatame +1.
#6SmashStrike(Topic Creator)Posted 9/11/2011 9:31:03 AM
No fighting/debating/arguing/whatever you want to call it. Other people's reasons are their reasons, leave them be.
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Your twisted logic is that of an immature, egotistic brat! - Naoto Shirogane
#7dotsdfePosted 9/11/2011 10:48:26 AM
20%. She's generally less popular with fans than Elizabeth, has less plot to wrap up, and overall has less screentime in her game that Elizabeth.
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World's #1 Phoenix Wright fan.
#8SmashStrike(Topic Creator)Posted 9/11/2011 8:45:26 PM
I give 70% for Marge. After you defeat her she tells you how if you should ever need her again, she would be there for you like Liz was for P3MC. Plus if Liz gets in, it was Marge's entire backstory to try and hunt Liz down giving her a fantastic reason to be in. But again, it's very possible the Velvet Sisters are too powerful to translate into playable characters.

I Nom Marie +5 and predict 20% for Takaya.
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Your twisted logic is that of an immature, egotistic brat! - Naoto Shirogane