Rate Their Chances Day 11: Marie/Mary

#1SmashStrikePosted 9/12/2011 9:16:28 PM
Welcome to Rate Their Chances Persona 4: The Ultimate in Mayonaka Arena Edition!

Takaya got 6 votes with an average of 12.67%. This finally gives us a score lower than Adachi, placing Takaya in 10th place.

The closest prediction was me with 20%. I get 10 noms today.

For those of you who were never on a Smash Bros board and are not familiar with Rate Their Chances, it is a series where each user gives a percentage on how likely they think a character is to make in a fighting game. Many users ran the long-lasting series on the Brawl board over a span of a year. 7 of the top ten percentages made Brawl in some form or another. Being that I was a regular poster on the pre Brawl boards and now that one of my favorite game series is churning out a fighter, I thought this would a cool to set it up here.

1. A user can rate a character's chances to make P4U on a scale of 0.01% to 99.99%. If a score is way off the mean, such as a score of 99.99% for Desk Cleaning Girl, the score will be scratched so it doesn't throw off the real average. It is encouraged to explain why you give a score, but you don't have to if you really don't want to. Never post an extremely high or low percentage in order to "balance the score". It defeats the purpose of the topics.
2. Every user can have five nominations a day, which they can use all on one character (like +5 Elizabeth) or spread them out over more than one character (like +2 Elizabeth, +2 Theodore, +1 Margaret). The characters each user nominates must be a 1st party or 2nd party character who has appeared in an Atlus game in the past. They also must have originated in a video game. Additionally, a user can attempt to predict the collective average that the On Deck character the next day will receive from all the ratings. The user who predicts the closest to the actual score will get 10 nominations instead of 5.
3. Do not fight or flame in this topic. Do not start arguments either or add to them. This is a fun thing that should be enjoyed.
4. If you don't give the character a rating without giving a good reason why you're unable to (i.e. not knowing who the character is would be a GOOD reason), your nominations will not count.

Example Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/633202-super-smash-bros-wii-u/60310066

-Confirmed Characters-
Yu Narukami
Yosuke Hanamura
Chie Satonaka
Yukiko Amagi
Kanji Tatsumi

Source: http://www.andriasang.com/e/galleries/2011/09/08/persona_4_ultimate_screens/


-Top Five-

1. Naoto Shirogane: 97.50%
2. Elizabeth: 63%
3. Akihiko Sanada: 45.63%
4. Yukari Takeba: 45%
5. Margaret: 44%

6. Mitsuru Kirijo: 36.11%
7. Junpei Iori: 34.7%
8. Protagonist (Persona 3): 24%
9. Tohru Adachi: 19.45%
10. Takaya Sakaki: 12.67%

Character of the Day: Marie/Mary
Bio: http://megamitensei.wikia.com/wiki/Marie

On Deck: Shadow P3MC

The Nominations List:

Izanami - 26
Korormaru - 21
Nanako Dojima - 15
Ken Amada - 9
Mitsuo Kubo - 8
Taro Namatame - 6
Demi-Fiend - 2
Ryotaro Dojima - 2
Mary (Soul Hackers) - 2
Alice - 1
Your twisted logic is that of an immature, egotistic brat! - Naoto Shirogane
#2dotsdfePosted 9/12/2011 9:28:27 PM
For now, I'm going to say 25%, based on the rumors that she's non-playable. If I were to hear that she's playable, I'd raise her drastically.
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#3Strain42Posted 9/12/2011 9:56:40 PM
Yeah, I agree

I'll say 1% if she's not a party member, but raise it to a good 99% if she is, just to round out the 100 there.

It's a little sad though. If she is a party member and then isn't in this game, it'd make most of P4:G non-canon
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#4HiroRaoPosted 9/12/2011 10:51:36 PM
I got a feeling it's around 25%

I'm getting the feeling that she's the ONLY new character added to P4:G, and the announcement of her has confused people into thinking she's a new party member.

However her dress in school isn't the normal, leaning towards party member.

Also, I'm starting to think that even if she is a party member, she'll be a hidden/optional character, meaning that you can exclude her and simply say it's "cannon" that she's not recruited.

Her chances aren't looking good, but at least she's from some form of P4 so I'd rate her chances higher than most entries.
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#5zeik56Posted 9/12/2011 10:53:07 PM
I'll give her a 10% chance, and most of that is whether she will be playable at all in P4:G. (I don't think she will.)
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#6SpacePr8RobertsPosted 9/12/2011 11:04:32 PM
Currently I rate 10% for Marie, but that will go up a lot if she turns out to be a party member in P4G, as everybody from the base version is either confirmed or strongly hinted at this point.

Predict 10% for Shadow P3MC, nom Izanami +1 Koromaru +4
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#7naiba_lucianPosted 9/13/2011 2:57:27 AM
15% so far. We really don't know whether or not she's a party member yet, but even with so many signs hinting towards her being one, there are also even BIGGER ones that show she won't be one.
Keeping my vote til the end simply because the TGS won't start until the 15th, and by that time this thread will have already been locked. z.z

Depending on whether or not we'll get more info on P4G (and P4U, in fact) at the TGS, I suggest reopening this thread or remaking it altogether, with new votes. It's not really fair to make any assumptions about her being in the fighter game just yet when we don't really know anything about her appearance in P4G either.

In any case, now that Shadow Minato is in his rightful place at the top of the deck, I can finally nominate Izanami. +5 noms for her.

Predicting 42.5% for Shadow Minato.
#8darkzero16Posted 9/13/2011 4:18:23 PM(edited)
Bleh I missed alot of these............anyways

If she was put on the confirmed rooster then everyone would be 100% positive she is playable in P4G.......Im guessing XP.

I think she has a 99% chance. She will be playable in P4G.............or I'll eat my Junpei hat ^_^

EDIT: forgot to nom and predict

I nom +1 to Mary (soul hackers) +4 Raidou (Why not)
Predicting 48% for Shadow MC
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#974ribsPosted 9/13/2011 4:44:12 PM
To introduce her and not have her here would be a cruel joke. If shes not playable in P4G she wont be here so 0.1% though chances are she will be in this game as a NPC.

Strain42 posted...
It's a little sad though. If she is a party member and then isn't in this game, it'd make most of P4:G non-canon

Why? She could have just died (Worst case scenario). Not really the best example either.

Point is there are plenty of ways she can be in P4G but not this and still keep her canon.
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#10SmashStrike(Topic Creator)Posted 9/13/2011 4:57:23 PM
To introduce her and not have her here would be a cruel joke. If shes not playable in P4G she wont be here so 0.1% though chances are she will be in this game as a NPC.

That is not really a proper rating. I don't know whether or not she's playable in P4G, none of us do. So you have to make your rating accordingly. If you stand by this, awesome. Just be a little more clear next time.
Your twisted logic is that of an immature, egotistic brat! - Naoto Shirogane