Easing the Odds on Rare items.

#21Yilx(Topic Creator)Posted 4/23/2013 5:57:19 AMmessage detail
Thank you Syaopup for the explanation and correction on Diablos Hardhorns; they can only be found in "Plain Dangerous".
#22SyaopupPosted 4/23/2013 6:06:50 AMmessage detail
Yilx posted...
Thank you Syaopup for the explanation and correction on Diablos Hardhorns; they can only be found in "Plain Dangerous".
No prob.

Ran the calcs for all the Rathalos percentages, all the numbers are right assuming that the player got the average of 8 items per quest as opposed to 16.
Which means that the percentages are both right and wrong, in the sense that that's the 'Average Odds' that you get for completing those quests. The 'Highest Odds' is much higher. But eh, details lol.
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RNG manipulation - Rare Candy farming with Pickup
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWJOtWrQ7Gc
#23OxygenSupplyPosted 4/23/2013 6:51:26 AMmessage detail
Syaopup posted...
Ran the calcs for all the Rathalos percentages, all the numbers are right assuming that the player got the average of 8 items per quest as opposed to 16.


Mmmh were the percentage he gave for EACH line?
Because for Uragaan Ruby (3% type A and B for Nerves of Steel, 1 fixed reward for A and B) his 11% is from 1-0.97^4. Which means 4 non-fixed items i.e. 4 for 1 line or 2 or the 2 lines (total 6 rewards including fixed items).
#24VakuPosted 4/23/2013 7:32:23 AMmessage detail
I noticed none of these list any DLC quests, which I thought offered higher % chances for gems in general.

I also know I got three 'Los Rubies in one Colorful Beasts rewards, with a Zinogre Jasper, as well, so I was curious if they listed anything about that on your source.
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He who fights with monsters might take care lest he thereby become a monster. The only future peace has to offer is war.
#25SyaopupPosted 4/23/2013 7:52:26 AMmessage detail
OxygenSupply posted...
Mmmh were the percentage he gave for EACH line?
Because for Uragaan Ruby (3% type A and B for Nerves of Steel, 1 fixed reward for A and B) his 11% is from 1-0.97^4. Which means 4 non-fixed items i.e. 4 for 1 line or 2 or the 2 lines (total 6 rewards including fixed items).

Only ran calcs for Rathalos, and I did so assuming it's 4 per line (both fixed and non fixed) for a total of 8.
Haven't done any calcs for the others so I'm not sure about the consistency of the 'average number of rewards' used for the rest of the percentages.
It's weird that Uragaan's uses 6 rewards instead of 8 though.
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RNG manipulation - Rare Candy farming with Pickup
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWJOtWrQ7Gc
#26ferofaxPosted 4/23/2013 9:11:19 AMmessage detail
Syaopup posted...
Yilx posted...
Thank you Syaopup for the explanation and correction on Diablos Hardhorns; they can only be found in "Plain Dangerous".
No prob.

Ran the calcs for all the Rathalos percentages, all the numbers are right assuming that the player got the average of 8 items per quest as opposed to 16.
Which means that the percentages are both right and wrong, in the sense that that's the 'Average Odds' that you get for completing those quests. The 'Highest Odds' is much higher. But eh, details lol.


If you're more likely to get only 8 slots rather than 16 slots, then that kind of offsets the odds somewhat, since you're more likely to look at rewards for 8 slots than 16 slots (which, by the way you put it, sounds like a fairly uncommon occurrence, maybe even rare). It doesn't matter if you get 48% carve/cap chance on a drop if you need to get all 16 slots to even have a shot at that 48%.

So obtaining the numbers for the most likely scenario works well enough, methinks. At least we know, if we see more slots, the chances just upped.
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#27AkubarixPosted 4/23/2013 10:15:34 AMmessage detail
Diablos Three (the G-2 quest) dropped Hard Horns and Stout Horns. You can get those pretty easily there. I don't know the %, but after seeking those bastards out for their Chines, I got plenty of fancy horns. Might be good information to have.
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No matter where I stand, I'm alone.
#28OxygenSupplyPosted 4/23/2013 11:35:47 AMmessage detail
Akubarix posted...
Diablos Three (the G-2 quest) dropped Hard Horns and Stout Horns. You can get those pretty easily there. I don't know the %, but after seeking those bastards out for their Chines, I got plenty of fancy horns. Might be good information to have.


We are talking about quest rewards here. According to the Japanese book data no quest gives hardhorn besides Plain dangerous.
#29AkubarixPosted 4/23/2013 12:06:15 PMmessage detail(edited)
OxygenSupply posted...
Akubarix posted...
Diablos Three (the G-2 quest) dropped Hard Horns and Stout Horns. You can get those pretty easily there. I don't know the %, but after seeking those bastards out for their Chines, I got plenty of fancy horns. Might be good information to have.


We are talking about quest rewards here. According to the Japanese book data no quest gives hardhorn besides Plain dangerous.


And it's wrong. I got them in the rewards. Since when can you freaking carve horns?
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No matter where I stand, I'm alone.
#30OxygenSupplyPosted 4/23/2013 12:53:44 PMmessage detail
Akubarix posted...
Since when can you freaking carve horns?


Err why do you say that all of a sudden? We were not talking about carving rates. Obviously it is not possible to carve Diablos Hardhorn.

Next time please take a picture because it seems you are mixing things together.