So what do the hit percentages actually mean?

#1I_Pwn_TetrisPosted 10/14/2012 12:07:15 PM
So when the game says I have an 80% chance of hitting an enemy, does the actual "calculation" happen after I choose that option, or is it all pre-determined.

I was under the impression that the game uses the same seed when you choose to shoot. So for example, if I start a match. I move unit A to the left 4 spaces and shoot at alien A. If I miss (for example), reload a save, and do the exact same movements, I will miss again.

My point is, if we forget about reloading saves, are the percentages given actually genuine, or are all of your shots pre-determined, and the percentages are more like someone telling you how confident they are that the shot will land. I have heard of a lot of people missing at 97% more often that probability says they should.
---
Staff Writer and Reviewer - www.nintendolife.com
Review Contributor - www.360sync.com
#2igor140Posted 10/14/2012 12:19:11 PM
to the best of my testing, they are predetermined to the last offensive action (may include healing; not sure). i THINK it's also predetermined to the TARGET.

so if you have a sniper take an 80% shot, and it misses, reloading 2904 times won't help anything. simply MOVING another unit, then going back to your sniper won't help anything. having a different unit taking a shot will always miss (ie, the target is predetermined to "dodge" this shot), but afterward your sniper will essentially "re-roll" his 80% shot.

this means that if you REALLY need to make a shot, and are willing to abuse saves, have some less important character take a pot-shot with a pistol before retrying your sniper shot.
---
without God, death is the only absolute
#3Mocking CrowPosted 10/14/2012 12:36:15 PM
Even playing through, not reloading, the 70%+ shots miss half the time. The devs math/coding is screwed up, or some sort of anti-reloading, pre-determined protocol is screwing with the the game all together.

Silent Storm was a much better turn based shooter which accurately calculated your chance to hit, while also providing a lot more variables in defense and offense as well as ACTUAL stealth. The mech units were the only thing that ruined it, and theres a mod that replaces them.

This game has some neat RP/Customization gimmicks, but is really watered down in other departments, like the simplistic combat design.

No prone or ducking on command.
^Furthermore, cover is simplified to 3 factors of full/half/no cover along with character abilities on CD to further increase defense.
Detecting and targetting enemy combatants is VERY simple, with triggered events.
Stealth is practically non-existant.
Chance to hit is funky.

7/10. Very watered down in too many categories to get immersed in the strategy of the COMBAT. The RP/Customization in base mode is interesting, but were not playing the sims here. They should have focused on combat(aka the actual GAMEPLAY) first/more.
---
Normal was defined by an arrogant or closed minded man who knew too little.
#4EdalborezPosted 10/14/2012 12:37:09 PM
Mocking Crow posted...
Even playing through, not reloading, the 70%+ shots miss half the time. The devs math/coding is screwed up, or some sort of anti-reloading, pre-determined protocol is screwing with the the game all together.


Confirmation bias, perhaps? You remember the failures because it was unlikely.
#5DisastersaurusPosted 10/14/2012 12:37:45 PM
Mocking Crow posted...
Even playing through, not reloading, the 70%+ shots miss half the time. The devs math/coding is screwed up, or some sort of anti-reloading, pre-determined protocol is screwing with the the game all together.

Silent Storm was a much better turn based shooter which accurately calculated your chance to hit, while also providing a lot more variables in defense and offense as well as ACTUAL stealth. The mech units were the only thing that ruined it, and theres a mod that replaces them.

This game has some neat RP/Customization gimmicks, but is really watered down in other departments, like the simplistic combat design.

No prone or ducking on command.
^Furthermore, cover is simplified to 3 factors of full/half/no cover along with character abilities on CD to further increase defense.
Detecting and targetting enemy combatants is VERY simple, with triggered events.
Stealth is practically non-existant.
Chance to hit is funky.

7/10. Very watered down in too many categories to get immersed in the strategy of the COMBAT. The RP/Customization in base mode is interesting, but were not playing the sims here. They should have focused on combat(aka the actual GAMEPLAY) first/more.



Confirmation bias is strong ITT.
---
I legitimately enjoy Dragon Age II and Diablo 3. Get at me, haters.
#6igor140Posted 10/14/2012 12:58:31 PM
yeah, i think that-- predetermined misses notwithstanding-- the accuracy numbers are pretty much right on. it's statistics, and therefore not math. that means weird stuff happens.

i did once miss four shots IN A ROW that were all 80% or better trying to finish off the last HP of a cyberdisc. the odds of that happening are well below 1%.

on the other hand, my heavy was completely cornered by a cyberdisc and two drones. i had 30% chance to hit, and the thing was a full health, so i was getting ready to reload when i just went for it. first hit was critical for 12 damage; second hit was critical for 11 damage. the explosion weakened the two drones, but also blew up a car that finished off the two drones. THAT is statistically impossible.
---
without God, death is the only absolute
#7EpopticPosted 10/14/2012 1:14:37 PM
i did once miss four shots IN A ROW that were all 80% or better trying to finish off the last HP of a cyberdisc. the odds of that happening are well below 1%.

Correct, and furthermore because the chance is about 1/4th of a percent, we expect it to happen about 1/250th of the time 4 80% shots are taken in a row.

There are well over 250 enemies in the game, so we expect every player to hit this possibility once or more.

Confirmation bias sucks, because it feels really unfair. OH SURE, 96% CHANCE MISSES??? But that has to happen 1/25th of the time, and you're never about to rage when your 33% chance shotgun hits.
---
-TATTS
"Ain't Tatts just the greatest little enigma?" - Darkman124
#8VelkiPosted 10/14/2012 1:17:42 PM
Hits/misses are determined by a seed generated at the beginning of the turn because computers can't generate random numbers on the fly, or so I've been told. They simply simulate random numbers via a series of complicated calculations producing semi-random numbers.

That's why if you, say, miss a 90% accuracy shot and reload the save, then perform the same action in the same sequence 10 times, you'll miss that 90% accuracy shot every single time.


Essentually, whether you'll hit or miss on any given action is decided randomly at the beginning of the turn, in order to facilitate random chance and speed up calculation of the turn actions.
---
"No one can defeat the quad laser. The bullet is enormous."
#9Element_PearlPosted 10/14/2012 1:30:42 PM
From: Epoptic | #007
i did once miss four shots IN A ROW that were all 80% or better trying to finish off the last HP of a cyberdisc. the odds of that happening are well below 1%.

Correct, and furthermore because the chance is about 1/4th of a percent, we expect it to happen about 1/250th of the time 4 80% shots are taken in a row.

There are well over 250 enemies in the game, so we expect every player to hit this possibility once or more.

Confirmation bias sucks, because it feels really unfair. OH SURE, 96% CHANCE MISSES??? But that has to happen 1/25th of the time, and you're never about to rage when your 33% chance shotgun hits.


What are the chances of me missing these 4 shots, in a row: 99%, 99%, 98%, 99%?

Seriously. It happened to me. I still won the mission, but lol.
---
Official Censored Element of the Fraternal Order of Monster Hunter Gentlemen.
#10MarquisRyizPosted 10/14/2012 1:31:21 PM
I'm convinced with Mocking Crow, the percent seems screwy to me too. Again agreeing the Silent Storm was much better at accurately calculating your chances to hit it's target, heck any shooter is better, Jagged Alliance BIA, Silent Storm and Hammer in Sickle, Fallout Tactics and many others, I could list off.

For some people we just be crazy and are victims of gambler's fallacy, for others they feel as if the numbers are screwy as well. Everywhere from Penny Arcade to Steams forums you'll find someone who feels the numbers are messed, and others that feel they're fine.

If it's pimpin for you use them otherwise if they don't seem right ignore em. I know I am.