Arrgh, I got my shiny charm last week, and have been trying to Masuda a shiny Ralts or Petilil since then. I have hatched about 1200 eggs; 800 ralts, 400 Petilil, or so.
When I get bored with hatching nonstop, I have been dabbling in breeding for IVs, something I have largely ignored up until now. Tonight, I decided to try to make a good Scizor, as I had a few scythers with various 31 IVs. I hatch 5 eggs and run them to the IV checker guy, got one that had perfect 31s in Speed and Attack, which I was more than happy with. Went to go switch out the parents, but the old man had one last egg for me. I grab it, switch parents and start breeding more eggs. the 6th egg hatches. I am hardly paying attention, but when I look at it it looks kinda weird, the green is too dark...
I know math doesn't work this way, but I feel as though somehow, my chances of a shiny ralts or petilil are now lower... like the gamblers fallacy in reverse, I just won, so my chaces of winning must be lower :/
TLDR: 800+ Ralts: no shiny. 400+Petilil: no shiny. 6 Scyther: 1 Shiny.
That "gambler's fallacy" is called the Law of Averages and does not exist, so don't worry. I even got two shinies on two consecutive days once (Boldore and Vulpix).
The way the numbers work, you have a much larger chance of obtaining your first shiny within 1024 eggs than you do within 8192 (given that you're using Masuda Method and shiny charm), but if you've hatched 8192 eggs, you still have exactly the same chance of getting one on your next egg as you do if you've just hatched 1024 eggs- regardless of how many shinies you got from those eggs.
In short, past encounters have no effect on what will come out of the next egg. Spending a month looking and getting no shinies does not increase your odds of getting one now, and getting one yesterday does not decrease your odds of getting one now.
The same thing goes for you, Reyman, you did get your shiny but that "dry streak" counted for nothing.
Just wanted to make sure you know this.
"it's that game that is so great it makes you want to destroy your Toilet." -Throwback2780
Yeah, it's just a feeling. I have caught other shinies, but they have always been years apart, so experience tells me that I am not likely to find another anytime soon, even though the math doesn't really support that.
Honestly, I can relate. I was breeding for a shiny Yanma in Gen 3 and spent loads of time getting what I believed to be the best chances for good IVs and moves. I spent almost a month straight on it, before getting bored. So I decided to try and fill out my Pokedex, wandered into a cave, and oh gee here comes a shiny Golbat with rock-bottom IVs. And I did feel like I made a huge mistake somewhere, like if I had just spent a few more days breeding, I would have gotten the shiny Yanma. (Nevermind that it just doesn't work like that, especially since these were two separate game carts, but that's how I felt then.)
At the same time, I'm also happy because it was a totally unexpected shiny, something most of my own shinies are. I never use it because I have better battlers, but as a trophy I can smile at it because of the luck involved (it came less than a month after getting another random shiny). Besides, even though I never got that Yanma, the planned moveset would have been destroyed with the new physical-special rules. (I was going for a physical attacker and I think I stuck Signal Beam and Shadow Ball on it, haha.)
And, honestly, after running into a shiny I had no chance at catching because it was in the Battle Castle, unexpected Golbat looks a heck of a lot more appealing.
Pokemon Black code: 4728 2761 0973 Character name: Asia