What do you think the chances are? I think EXTREMELY high. First off, LEGO has announced and released pictures of an upcoming The Hobbit line. Also, the fact that the Hobbit is getting split into a trilogy is perfect for LEGO games since TT usually likes to stick to 3 films with 6 levels each.
Then again, I suppose it does depend on the popularity of The Hobbit in comparison to LotR, but I'm fairly sure it'll be popular as well.
The question is, when? The first Hobbit movie comes in December, so will they wait til the second or third?
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I would guess that they will release Lego The Hobbit around the same time as the third movie's release. Remember Lego Pirates of the Caribbean? That came out right as the fourth movie released. So I would assume that a similar approach will be used for The Hobbit as well. It will be a lot easier to ride the hype of the final film then it would be to create an interest from scratch well after the last film has left theaters. I am simply looking at it from a marketing stand point though.
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