Do you think the PS4 can reach PS2 lifetime sale numbers?

#61THE_PS1_PATRIOTPosted 7/13/2014 11:10:14 AM
Yes simply because Sony is gonna support PS4 loooong into PS5 lifespan. Sony don't quit on their home consoles like the others.

Handhelds however...
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#62SabramPosted 7/13/2014 7:47:09 PM
Everyone's forgetting about the possible massive sales from China. Could make it very easy to get to PS2 numbers.
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#63JoshelplexPosted 7/13/2014 8:10:31 PM
Anyone who thinks ANYTHING will ever hit PS2 numbers again is insane. It wont happen, that market doesn't exist anymore. The console userbase is shrinking, and has been for almost a decade, and will never grow again now that more and more people ditch consoles for tablets.
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#64EoinPosted 7/14/2014 12:27:15 AM
Sabram posted...
Everyone's forgetting about the possible massive sales from China. Could make it very easy to get to PS2 numbers.

This is overplayed, for many reasons:

1. Chinese households do not yet have anywhere near the disposable income of many households in North America, Europe, and Japan. A games console is a huge purchase for a large majority of Chinese families.

2. The households who do have the money are likely to prioritise other electronic devices ahead of the PS4. That would include things like laptops, mobile phones and tablets.

3. Consoles for (official) sale in China need to be manufactured in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone. This is a 29 square kilometre area within Shanghai. The kind of factory needed to assemble games consoles in large numbers is, itself, somewhat large. The Free Trade Zone is rather small, and Sony are competing for space there along with about 10,000 other companies.

To make things worse, most of the space there is set aside for logistics (anyone making something there will need to bring in most of the components from elsewhere, including Sony, and that requires lots of things like docks and warehouses and transport links). Much of the rest of the space is held by Chinese speculators who know that property prices there are going to increase dramatically.

In short, a games console factory in the FTZ is going to be small and expensive. It won't be churning out hundreds of thousands of consoles per month (and, therefore, Sony won't be selling that many consoles).

4. There is a strange idea that since games consoles were banned in China, they weren't for sale in China. This is not true. Games consoles have been widely available on the grey market. Chinese people who want a PS4 and who can afford to buy one do not have to wait. The kind of sales we can expect from China in the short term are already being factored into PS4 sales.

Some of the factors above are likely (or certain) to change eventually. However, none of them are likely to change very much this generation. That will mean additional console sales in the range of millions of units, not tens of millions.
#65TJ_UNLIMITEDPosted 7/14/2014 12:33:08 AM
Eoin posted...
Sabram posted...
Everyone's forgetting about the possible massive sales from China. Could make it very easy to get to PS2 numbers.

This is overplayed, for many reasons:

1. Chinese households do not yet have anywhere near the disposable income of many households in North America, Europe, and Japan. A games console is a huge purchase for a large majority of Chinese families.

2. The households who do have the money are likely to prioritise other electronic devices ahead of the PS4. That would include things like laptops, mobile phones and tablets.

3. Consoles for (official) sale in China need to be manufactured in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone. This is a 29 square kilometre area within Shanghai. The kind of factory needed to assemble games consoles in large numbers is, itself, somewhat large. The Free Trade Zone is rather small, and Sony are competing for space there along with about 10,000 other companies.

To make things worse, most of the space there is set aside for logistics (anyone making something there will need to bring in most of the components from elsewhere, including Sony, and that requires lots of things like docks and warehouses and transport links). Much of the rest of the space is held by Chinese speculators who know that property prices there are going to increase dramatically.

In short, a games console factory in the FTZ is going to be small and expensive. It won't be churning out hundreds of thousands of consoles per month (and, therefore, Sony won't be selling that many consoles).

4. There is a strange idea that since games consoles were banned in China, they weren't for sale in China. This is not true. Games consoles have been widely available on the grey market. Chinese people who want a PS4 and who can afford to buy one do not have to wait. The kind of sales we can expect from China in the short term are already being factored into PS4 sales.

Some of the factors above are likely (or certain) to change eventually. However, none of them are likely to change very much this generation. That will mean additional console sales in the range of millions of units, not tens of millions.


For the record, I'm only addressing your first point with this link. China is better off than you think. Funny enough I just read this a couple days ago while researching the US economy.

http://money.cnn.com/2012/04/25/news/economy/china-middle-class/
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#66EoinPosted 7/14/2014 12:45:39 AM
TJ_UNLIMITED posted...
For the record, I'm only addressing your first point with this link. China is better off than you think. Funny enough I just read this a couple days ago while researching the US economy.

http://money.cnn.com/2012/04/25/news/economy/china-middle-class/

Please do not assume what I think.

Look at what that article actually says. It defines "middle class" for the US in terms of income in US dollars, but then immediately gives a totally different definition for China, of "a household with a third of its income for discretionary spending". It doesn't give that in dollars (or any other currency).

The reality is that a a third of a household income, for the Chinese households that even have that, will still be a relatively low number, and in most cases the PS4 is not going to be high on the priority list.

China is getting wealthier. However, Chinese households still do not have anywhere near the kind of money to spend that North American and European households have. You should not let yourself be tricked into thinking otherwise just because of a single article.
#67NextGenISbetterPosted 7/14/2014 3:48:17 AM
Not a chance especially after the horrid Ps3.
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#68TJ_UNLIMITEDPosted 7/14/2014 7:36:25 AM
Eoin posted...
TJ_UNLIMITED posted...
For the record, I'm only addressing your first point with this link. China is better off than you think. Funny enough I just read this a couple days ago while researching the US economy.

http://money.cnn.com/2012/04/25/news/economy/china-middle-class/

Please do not assume what I think.

Look at what that article actually says. It defines "middle class" for the US in terms of income in US dollars, but then immediately gives a totally different definition for China, of "a household with a third of its income for discretionary spending". It doesn't give that in dollars (or any other currency).

The reality is that a a third of a household income, for the Chinese households that even have that, will still be a relatively low number, and in most cases the PS4 is not going to be high on the priority list.

China is getting wealthier. However, Chinese households still do not have anywhere near the kind of money to spend that North American and European households have. You should not let yourself be tricked into thinking otherwise just because of a single article.


I'm not allowing myself to be tricked into anything, there are tons of articles saying the same thing. Me giving you one doesn't mean only one says it. You can argue/disagree with economists all you want, but this is reality, and it makes perfect sense because the US has given them tons of jobs that once were domestic.

Like I said, don't underestimate China.
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The strongest people on the internet are the weakest people in real life.
#69SabramPosted 7/15/2014 7:28:47 AM
TJ_UNLIMITED posted...
Eoin posted...
TJ_UNLIMITED posted...
For the record, I'm only addressing your first point with this link. China is better off than you think. Funny enough I just read this a couple days ago while researching the US economy.

http://money.cnn.com/2012/04/25/news/economy/china-middle-class/

Please do not assume what I think.

Look at what that article actually says. It defines "middle class" for the US in terms of income in US dollars, but then immediately gives a totally different definition for China, of "a household with a third of its income for discretionary spending". It doesn't give that in dollars (or any other currency).

The reality is that a a third of a household income, for the Chinese households that even have that, will still be a relatively low number, and in most cases the PS4 is not going to be high on the priority list.

China is getting wealthier. However, Chinese households still do not have anywhere near the kind of money to spend that North American and European households have. You should not let yourself be tricked into thinking otherwise just because of a single article.


I'm not allowing myself to be tricked into anything, there are tons of articles saying the same thing. Me giving you one doesn't mean only one says it. You can argue/disagree with economists all you want, but this is reality, and it makes perfect sense because the US has given them tons of jobs that once were domestic.

Like I said, don't underestimate China.


I didn't read your link TJ, but speaking of economics, to make a bit of an assumption here. If only a third of China's population has the disposable income to afford a PS4, and then only half of them even want a game console, and then only half of THAT wants a PS4, that's still 111 million people.

What Eoin fails to recognize, is that China's population is MASSIVE. 1.351 BILLION people as of 2012, and it's only gone up in 2 years. With that many people, you need a much smaller percentage of the total to do something for it to still count as a high number, such as with purchasing electronics.

I mean really, if only FIVE percent of the population over the entire PS4 lifespan buys one, that's still 67.5 million consoles.

This is why I think the PS4 will surpass the PS2 in global sales. It has more than double the people to sell to.
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Dark Souls 2 + Dragon's Crown crossover game needs to happen.
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#70EoinPosted 7/15/2014 7:44:04 AM
Sabram posted...
What Eoin fails to recognize, is that China's population is MASSIVE.

I don't "fail to recognise" that at all, and there is nothing in my post that could possibly have driven you to the absolutely mistaken nonsensical belief that I don't know that. How can you imagine that there is anyone at all in this topic that doesn't know that China has a massive population?

Sabram posted...
I mean really, if only FIVE percent of the population over the entire PS4 lifespan buys one, that's still 67.5 million consoles.

Nowhere close to 5% of China's population will purchase a PS4. One (of many) reasons for this is that Sony won't ever have that kind of production capacity in the Shanghai FTZ. I have explained this already in my post that you didn't bother reading properly.