Do you think the PS4 can reach PS2 lifetime sale numbers?

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1 year ago#71
Eoin posted...
Sabram posted...
What Eoin fails to recognize, is that China's population is MASSIVE.

I don't "fail to recognise" that at all, and there is nothing in my post that could possibly have driven you to the absolutely mistaken nonsensical belief that I don't know that. How can you imagine that there is anyone at all in this topic that doesn't know that China has a massive population?

Sabram posted...
I mean really, if only FIVE percent of the population over the entire PS4 lifespan buys one, that's still 67.5 million consoles.

Nowhere close to 5% of China's population will purchase a PS4. One (of many) reasons for this is that Sony won't ever have that kind of production capacity in the Shanghai FTZ. I have explained this already in my post that you didn't bother reading properly.


Ok, how many consoles do you think Sony will sell in China? Or rather, what percentage of the population will buy one? That's something you've never weighed in on. Since we're all trying to guess numbers here, all I'm hearing you say is "no" and then stating your reasoning as very limited chance of manufacturing with a mix of mobile mania in China nixing possible console sales.

So how many do you actually think will be sold there?
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Dark Souls 2 + Dragon's Crown crossover game needs to happen.
PSN: Sabram - NNID: Sabram - Gamertag: Sabram
1 year ago#72
Sabram posted...
Ok, how many consoles do you think Sony will sell in China?

Slightly below 10m. Anyone predicting anything much higher than that has effectively zero knowledge of the major factors at work here and is just making an ignorant "China is big" argument.

Sabram posted...
That's something you've never weighed in on.

It absolutely is. My post on China, that you didn't bother reading, very clearly says:

Some of the factors above are likely (or certain) to change eventually. However, none of them are likely to change very much this generation. That will mean additional console sales in the range of millions of units, not tens of millions.

If you don't want to read my posts, that's fine, but it's really weird of you to attempt to guess what I have and haven't said, when you could simply read my posts and find out.

Sabram posted...
Since we're all trying to guess numbers here, all I'm hearing you say is "no" and then stating your reasoning as very limited chance of manufacturing with a mix of mobile mania in China nixing possible console sales.

Then read my posts properly. You managed to mention (or guess?) two of the four factors that I am talking about that will result in much lower PS4 sales in China than the "China is big" people think.
1 year ago#73
You're completely correct about the GDP per capita of China, it's horribly low. That doesnt mean however that there arent still a lot of people there making a good amount of money, it just means that the average across 1.3 billion people is low. It's literally impossible to gauge a number of people who have a good amount of disposable income from that number.

As for that "grey market" argument. Yeah it's been around for a while. Some years ago there was a video making the rounds showing off the "Chintendo Vii" that was rather hilarious. Thing is those sales numbers were never tracked either, so who knows how many of those knock-offs were sold, and who knows how many people KNEW they were knock offs, and would have MUCH rather had a legitimate version of said item? So your fourth point is just a speculative one, and cannot be properly measured.

So really the only points you have that are an ACTUAL point, are the two I originally addressed.
The mobile trend cutting into sales, and the limited manufacturing space will cause lower numbers than what could be possible.

Oh, and as far as "reading your posts properly" I was asking for an actual number guesstimate from you as far as lifetime sales there would go, instead of "some millions of units, but not tens of millions" I based my estimates off populations and percentages to come up with some plausible numbers instead of very loose estimates.

It doesnt take much thinking to realize that no one can really say how the market will go in China. What can be said is that both Sony and Microsoft think it's worth it to release their systems there. I don't think either company would do so, considering all of the costs involved, if they were only going to sell ~10m units of their system. And to be perfectly honest, I think their financial advisers and business analytics are a bit more advanced than yours or mine. This is why my guesstimate is trending towards much higher numbers than yours are, because they likely HAVE some estimated sales numbers of those grey-market knock off systems, and my guess is that it's higher than you suspect.

So yes, I think the PS4 will eventually sell more than the PS2, especially since it's already trending in that direction everywhere except Japan.
---
Dark Souls 2 + Dragon's Crown crossover game needs to happen.
PSN: Sabram - NNID: Sabram - Gamertag: Sabram
1 year ago#74
Sabram posted...
As for that "grey market" argument. Yeah it's been around for a while. Some years ago there was a video making the rounds showing off the "Chintendo Vii" that was rather hilarious. Thing is those sales numbers were never tracked either, so who knows how many of those knock-offs were sold, and who knows how many people KNEW they were knock offs, and would have MUCH rather had a legitimate version of said item? So your fourth point is just a speculative one, and cannot be properly measured.

I never said anything about knock-offs so I have no idea how you misunderstood that point so badly. Every console is widely available in China, in any area where there's any kind of real demand. Those numbers are tracked, by the way, as part of the shipment numbers that Sony and Microsoft give out. It's not possible to say how many are sold in China after having been shipped elsewhere, but we do know that it's not massive numbers.

Sabram posted...
Oh, and as far as "reading your posts properly" I was asking for an actual number guesstimate from you as far as lifetime sales there would go, instead of "some millions of units, but not tens of millions"

My range of multiple millions but not over 10m is far more accurate than your "actual number" that you pulled out of nowhere. In a delusionally optimistic scenario where Sony sell 20m PS4s in China, I'll be off by 10m and you'll be off by 47.5m.

Sabram posted...
I based my estimates off populations and percentages to come up with some plausible numbers instead of very loose estimates.

You based your number off nothing. You have no reason to believe that 5% of people in China will buy a PS4. You did not come up with plausible numbers. You came up with ridiculous numbers. There is not the slightest chance in the world that Sony will sell 67.5m consoles in China. Manufacturing limits alone will prevent them from getting anywhere close to that. Sony are shipping a bit over a million PS4s per month, across the entire world, with multiple plants in China and Japan manufacturing PS4s. You're suggesting that they will ship the same number of PS4s per month, just to China, each month for five years, all made in just one factory in the FTZ. That is not plausible. It is simply wrong.

Sabram posted...
It doesnt take much thinking to realize that no one can really say how the market will go in China.

Nobody can say exactly how it will go. However, there is a difference between people saying 5m pessimistically, people saying double that may be possible, people saying 15m optimistically, and you with your utterly nonsensical "make up a percentage" figure. You'd need over a million a month for five years to get that high, and there is nowhere near that kind of capacity available to Sony.

Sabram posted...
I don't think either company would do so, considering all of the costs involved, if they were only going to sell ~10m units of their system.

You think 10m units is a small number? "Only" 10m units? 10m units and a good foundation to build on in future would have Sony or Microsoft delighted with the results of their efforts in China. That, by the way, is the real aim here: to build something for the future, so that when China's market eventually opens up more and they can start manufacturing where they want, they're not starting from a base of zero.
1 year ago#75
All this talk about the PS4 potentially selling a lot because "China has a big population". Uh, did you forget about India? It's the second biggest population and the PS4 is already available there. I don't see any news about ground breaking sales
1 year ago#76
PangLa posted...
All this talk about the PS4 potentially selling a lot because "China has a big population". Uh, did you forget about India? It's the second biggest population and the PS4 is already available there. I don't see any news about ground breaking sales


Exactly just because a nation is huge it doesn't mean everyone living there like video games let alone can afford one. NA and the EU have a lot of people but the whole population aren't into video games let alone Playstation. It's foolish to think population has any bearing on a system success or failures. There are other factors to consider.
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"Your arms are too short to box with God!"
1 year ago#77
PangLa posted...
All this talk about the PS4 potentially selling a lot because "China has a big population". Uh, did you forget about India? It's the second biggest population and the PS4 is already available there. I don't see any news about ground breaking sales


India also has a lot more of the population under the poverty line than China.

In any case, I've done a decent amount of research on this to come up with reasonable guesses. And that's all they are is guesses. They can be no more right or wrong than someone's opinion. You might not like it, and you might not agree with it, but it's just as valid as anything anyone else comes up with.

Basically what i'm saying is, Eoin is wrong for thinking he's right. I never said he was wrong, I just offered counter points to why he MAY END UP being wrong. Just as he tried to do. He was foolish enough to speak in absolutes (You're wrong because you think this) Whereas I just said (Well these other factors might be a thing)

The person who thinks they KNOW what the numbers will be for, well ANY region really, are the only ones who are wrong.
---
Dark Souls 2 + Dragon's Crown crossover game needs to happen.
PSN: Sabram - NNID: Sabram - Gamertag: Sabram
1 year ago#78
_RMT_ posted...
considering the ps2 had no competition, probably not.


Man the discussions on here are laughable. PS2 has serious competition, lots of DVD players out there but the PS2 won the battle of DVD players and emerged victorious, they also handed em out for free with almost anything.
1 year ago#79
Sabram posted...
The person who thinks they KNOW what the numbers will be for, well ANY region really, are the only ones who are wrong.

I never said I know what the numbers will be. That's why I gave a range. However, your numbers are simply wrong.

Let me repeat this because it's clear that you simply do not have an answer for it:

Sony are shipping a bit over a million PS4s per month, across the entire world, with multiple plants in China and Japan manufacturing PS4s. You're suggesting that they will ship the same number of PS4s per month, just to China, each month for five years, all made in just one factory in the FTZ.

Sony will not have that capacity.

Your argument that I am wrong because I know for sure that your ridiculous number is wrong is preposterous. You know that Sony won't sell a billion PS4s in China, right? By your logic, knowing that makes you wrong. 67.5 million might sound more plausible to you, but it has exactly the same chance of happening (zero). The fact that you are now emotionally attached to that figure and are incapable of accepting that it's wrong doesn't change the fact that it is wrong.
1 year ago#80
Eoin posted...
Sabram posted...
The person who thinks they KNOW what the numbers will be for, well ANY region really, are the only ones who are wrong.

I never said I know what the numbers will be. That's why I gave a range. However, your numbers are simply wrong.

Let me repeat this because it's clear that you simply do not have an answer for it:

Sony are shipping a bit over a million PS4s per month, across the entire world, with multiple plants in China and Japan manufacturing PS4s. You're suggesting that they will ship the same number of PS4s per month, just to China, each month for five years, all made in just one factory in the FTZ.

Sony will not have that capacity.

Your argument that I am wrong because I know for sure that your ridiculous number is wrong is preposterous. You know that Sony won't sell a billion PS4s in China, right? By your logic, knowing that makes you wrong. 67.5 million might sound more plausible to you, but it has exactly the same chance of happening (zero). The fact that you are now emotionally attached to that figure and are incapable of accepting that it's wrong doesn't change the fact that it is wrong.


No, i don't expect them to ship a million PS4's a month for five years. Half a million a month for 10 years is more likely, though still quite high. maybe 250k a month for 10 years. that's still 30m units.

Keep in mind when I projected 67.5m units, I thought Sony would have a bit more manufacturing space than what they're likely to have there. So due to that rather severe limitation they certainly won't hit that number. I still highly suspect they'll do better than 10m though.
---
Dark Souls 2 + Dragon's Crown crossover game needs to happen.
PSN: Sabram - NNID: Sabram - Gamertag: Sabram
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