I feel that nba live 14 would be a smart choice. Madden is going to sell like crazy while nba live will most likely be behind nba 2k. If nba live turns out to be a quality title it would be set up for a better showing the following year.
Madden would be the obvious choice, but thats a money grab im sure microsoft nor EA want to give up. I think NA should get some kind of offer like the Europeans but I would prefer a year of LIVE over Fifa or Madden or even a second controller with play and charge kit.