Games are all that matter and ms is holding all the keys to every exclusive game that has any significant degree of hype or consumer excitement behind it. That could change at e3, but it likely wont.
I'm struggling to think of any hyped xbone exclusives on the horizon ? (Can't think of any PS4 ones either).
Most hyped games are multiplatform atm, with PS4 offering better resolution/fps on some of them and additional content in others.
I think the only ones likely to release this year are Sunset Overdrive and Quantum Break (both are 3rd party though so MS has as much control over them as they did over bioshock and Mass Effect, expect to see them on the PS4 when their sequels are about to release granted they're successful enough to warrant sequels). PS4 exclusives likely to release this year are The Order, Driveclub and Deep Down.
I don't think either one really has an edge over the other, so expect PS4 to keep selling 2-3 times more like it has been for the past 3 months.