"Xbox One Sales Will Dominate America in 2016, Reports IDC"

#1Omega_BlackPosted 5/6/2014 10:41:40 PM
http://www.cinemablend.com/games/Xbox-One-Sales-Dominate-America-2016-Reports-IDC-63898.html

An inflammatory article but nonetheless filled with inconvenient truths.

Price is an issue but it isn't the biggest one. The greatest hurdle for Microsoft is image and the negative PR surrounding the original XBO's philosophy, its policies, and its executives.

XBO is lagging because, despite what some people continually believe, actual consumers actively shied away from XBO after the policy reveals and stayed away even after the 180 shift, embracing the competition instead.

It's not just a simple matter of un-bundling the Kinect to lower the price and rise to stardom which, in my opinion, is a very narrow, short-sighted approach to a bigger problem. Microsoft still has a long way to go toward winning back consumer goodwill and increasing the XBO's appeal.

Removing one of its few defining features is just not the way.
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#2dnmtPosted 5/6/2014 10:46:37 PM
I'm not entirely sure there will even be an Xbone in 2016.
#3dnmtPosted 5/6/2014 10:49:57 PM
An interesting tidbit from that same report:

International Data Corporation (IDC) is preparing to publish its latest console forecast and the research firm has given GamesIndustry International an exclusive preview of the report. There are several key takeaways to note, including Sony's dominance of the new console cycle, Microsoft's need to unbundle Kinect, and a general decline in the physical retail side of the games business.

IDC predicts that Sony's PlayStation 4 will have the single biggest share of the market in 2016 with 51 million sold globally. Microsoft hasn't been faring quite as well, but IDC believes Xbox One will make a serious comeback, particularly in North America where it's forecasted to take the lead. This will be spurred on by unbundling Kinect, IDC said.

"The presumed unbundling of Kinect and Xbox One, which should facilitate rough price parity between it and the PS4, should lead to a spike in Xbox One sales; assuming the console and sensor are unbundled in 2015, IDC expects Xbox One to recover and emerge with the largest installed base of any console in North America by the end of 2016," the firm explained.

Meanwhile, Nintendo's Wii U is expected to finally receive "the equivalent of a $50 price cut worldwide in late 2014 or early 2015," but it won't make a serious dent in the installed base gap between Wii U and the competition.

Looking at the bigger picture, the retail component of the video game business is expected to see continued declines, IDC said. IDC's forecast states that, together, eighth generation consoles will generate about 10 percent less retail revenue from console hardware and disc-based games than seventh generation (Xbox 360, PS3, Wii) consoles did combined through their first six years on the market.

That being said, total eighth generation console hardware revenue actually is projected to come in above the comparable seventh generation total thanks to higher average selling prices (ASPs). It's a different story, however, for the physical disc business, which IDC forecasts will see 45 percent fewer discs sold to retailers in the first six years compared to the seventh generation physical games sales.


http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2014-05-06-ps4-to-lead-all-consoles-with-51-million-sold-by-2016-idc
#4SoulTrapperPosted 5/6/2014 10:56:57 PM
I think removing the kinect would be a big step forward.

Not just because it would lower the price, but more importantly because it would show that Microsoft actually is willing to accept that they made mistakes and need to listen to the people instead of pushing their own agenda.

Reversing the horrible policies they introduced at E3 would have been great, if they didn't start blaming consumers for "not being ready" and talking about bringing those policies back just a few weeks later.

Removing the kinect would mean that Microsoft was making actual changes and listening to fans, which would finally help create some good will towards the product again, instead of the constant negativity.
#5Omega_Black(Topic Creator)Posted 5/6/2014 11:04:34 PM
dnmt posted...
An interesting tidbit from that same report:
...
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2014-05-06-ps4-to-lead-all-consoles-with-51-million-sold-by-2016-idc
Indeed.
IDC definitely believes that Sony's console will certainly be the worldwide leader in 2016 and I don't doubt it.
However, I can't help feeling that the 51 million figure seems a bit exaggerated.
Then again, I would have thought the same of the apparent 4.2 million sales in just 2013 alone so...
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Go where the games are...
Brawl FC: 2062 8812 4168
#6dnmtPosted 5/6/2014 11:09:11 PM(edited)
Omega_Black posted...
dnmt posted...
An interesting tidbit from that same report:
...
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2014-05-06-ps4-to-lead-all-consoles-with-51-million-sold-by-2016-idc
Indeed.
IDC definitely believes that Sony's console will certainly be the worldwide leader in 2016 and I don't doubt it.
However, I can't help feeling that the 51 million figure seems a bit exaggerated.
Then again, I would have thought the same of the apparent 4.2 million sales in just 2013 alone so...


The Wii sold about 66 million in that same time frame so I think 51 million is definitely possible.
#7Omega_Black(Topic Creator)Posted 5/6/2014 11:20:06 PM
SoulTrapper posted...
I think removing the kinect would be a big step forward.

Not just because it would lower the price, but more importantly because it would show that Microsoft actually is willing to accept that they made mistakes and need to listen to the people instead of pushing their own agenda.

Reversing the horrible policies they introduced at E3 would have been great, if they didn't start blaming consumers for "not being ready" and talking about bringing those policies back just a few weeks later.

Removing the kinect would mean that Microsoft was making actual changes and listening to fans, which would finally help create some good will towards the product again, instead of the constant negativity.
Let me preface by saying that I neither like nor dislike Kinect. It is simply there to me and while novel, full of potential, and even useful in certain instances, I could easily do without it in its current state.

That said, I still believe that fracturing the user base between the haves and the have-nots would be a mistake on Microsoft's end and would be taking away one of the few notable features the console actually has compared to the competition.

In addition, it takes away a tool that developers may use to create more innovative experiences because once Kinect is demoted to an optional peripheral with only 5 million or so guaranteed users, developers no longer have any incentive to support it. It becomes just another missed opportunity.

In my view, Microsoft did enough by reversing the more draconian policies of the original XBO. Now it is a matter of reshaping the XBO's image and creating more appeal using its current feature set, including the Kinect. Like Nintendo is stuck with the oddity that is the Wii U Gamepad, MS is effectively stuck with the Kinect. Now it needs to make the best of it.
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Go where the games are...
Brawl FC: 2062 8812 4168
#8slyman19Posted 5/6/2014 11:30:59 PM
dnmt posted...
I'm not entirely sure there will even be an Xbone in 2016.


Sony is pretty much the only one in true danger of dropping out and even that is unlikely.
#9Omega_Black(Topic Creator)Posted 5/6/2014 11:34:39 PM
dnmt posted...
The Wii sold about 66 million in that same time frame so I think 51 million is definitely possible.
Good point, however the Wii had a unique gimmick on its side at the time and people were eager to snap them up as fast as Nintendo could manufacture them.

The PS4 is currently selling pretty darn good however it does not have that instant casual appeal on its side like the Wii did. I would not rule out a definitive drop in sales for PS4 just as much as I would expect sales to continue climbing in every territory except Japan.
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Go where the games are...
Brawl FC: 2062 8812 4168
#10Styrof0amPosted 5/6/2014 11:41:51 PM
Omega_Black posted...
IDC definitely believes that Sony's console will certainly be the worldwide leader in 2016 and I don't doubt it.
However, I can't help feeling that the 51 million figure seems a bit exaggerated.
Then again, I would have thought the same of the apparent 4.2 million sales in just 2013 alone so...

Pricepoint seem to be a big factor. I'm guessing sony will drop the price on PS4 as soon as MS does the same for XB1. They want to keep the pressure up, and gain an even bigger market share.

Prediction: The aforementioned pricedrops will happen next november, both consoles will break records in sales and PS4 will sell the most (largely due to a lower pricepoint).


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