So, after year three i'm expecting 12 million homes to have an X1

#1ave1Posted 7/23/2014 1:43:45 PM
Is that a reasonable expectation of an installed base? Is that not a successful console? My view is that 12 million sold after 3 years is pretty acceptable- and within "Success" territory. Now if they stop making them right after year 3 or sometime earlier than that, I'd say we are in "failure" territory. I know this is kinda arbitrary. What might you say is fairly successful by the end of the third year?
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#2redditon4chanPosted 7/23/2014 1:46:16 PM
However many it takes to continue to receive support.
#3TOhasNoRingPosted 7/23/2014 1:52:54 PM
If you think this console will only sell 12 million in 3 years your insane.
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#4dnmtPosted 7/23/2014 1:53:46 PM
12 million is 3 years is Gamecube/original Xbox territory. Not so hot.
#5PulpPosted 7/23/2014 2:18:08 PM
12 million would be an impressive failure...especially if you consider, by the same extrapolation, PS4 would be at ~40m. It would be an easy choice for devs which console would be the lead (or exclusive) platform.
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#6IzraeilPosted 7/23/2014 4:04:17 PM
Meanwhile PS4 will be at 12 million before the holidays start this year. So at that point PS4 will likely start getting free 3rd party exclusives like the PS2 because xb1 install base isn't worth the effort of a port. Especially since those 12 million will be the ones who only play halo, gears, and Forza.
#7Miiri0Posted 7/23/2014 4:14:32 PM
Reasonable estimate. Xbone can only depand on US sales. I dont see xbone doing well outside US considering so many negative vibes for it. Weak hardware and spying/nsa/prism and ads data mining are among the huge turn off.
#8Kupo_Mog_KupoPosted 7/23/2014 4:14:51 PM
They have probably sold around 4.7-4.8 million now. November and December of this year will add at least 2 million worldwide. So it'd be hard to put them at only 12 million after three years.
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#9IzraeilPosted 7/23/2014 4:20:01 PM
Kupo_Mog_Kupo posted...
They have probably sold around 4.7-4.8 million now. November and December of this year will add at least 2 million worldwide. So it'd be hard to put them at only 12 million after three years.


It could drop dead quickly once the all the Halo, Gears and Forza fans have one. The multiplats are only boosting PS4 sales and not doing much if anything for XB1 sales.
#10Miiri0Posted 7/23/2014 4:24:30 PM
Izraeil posted...
Kupo_Mog_Kupo posted...
They have probably sold around 4.7-4.8 million now. November and December of this year will add at least 2 million worldwide. So it'd be hard to put them at only 12 million after three years.


It could drop dead quickly once the all the Halo, Gears and Forza fans have one. The multiplats are only boosting PS4 sales and not doing much if anything for XB1 sales.


For multi console games, I blame DF for reporting games performance on ps4/xbone. Since ps4 have considerably superior hardware, ps4 version will always dominate xbone. everytime.