If MS has room in its budget to allocate consoles to Japan and spend a little on marketing, it certainly wouldn't hurt. Who knows, MS might get a developer or two who likes the Kinect and the unique stuff the console has to offer and who'll end up creating the next great game.
Despite Japan's decline in console development and aversion to global software trends, they still have a ton of talent waiting in the shadows.
USA military is in Japan so yeah, sell some. But it won't sell well because they don't play many xbox type games and they're broke outside of Tokyo just about. I made more then my trainer from mazda Japan, he worked 15 years for Mazda, cane here and I made more as a new hire in a remanufacturing plant him. He was saying how he wished he could afford a new ps3, he never owned a console.
Own: Xbox one, 360, PS3, Wii Richard is also known as Dick.
Last generation I would have said (and I think I did say) that they may as well stay there and hope that they build some kind of fanbase or have some kind of surprise giant hit, but at this point it's obvious that the chances of that happening are extremely low, so there's no longer any reason for Microsoft to think that they can ever have a properly successful console in Japan, especially with the console market there being as depressed as it is now.
However, I think there are still two points in favour of releasing the Xbox One in Japan.
The first is to ensure that it's visible to Japanese developers, in some form. While they will all be intellectually aware of the fact that Xbox is a much bigger brand outside of Japan, it still helps for them to be able to see it in a retail environment in their home area.
The second is simply to avoid all the "Microsoft exit Japan" headlines and the negativity that would surround that. Microsoft created enough negativity around the Xbox One. They are going to have to work through this entire generation to minimise that initial negativity, so they don't need to go creating more.
I suppose at the very least, the Wii U and PS4 are selling in such low numbers in Japan that Microsoft should be able to beat them both fairly easily. With the recent announcement of the New 3DS models, if people wait for those, the Xbox One may even be the top-selling machine of the week when it launches. That'll only last a week, but at least the headlines will be interesting.