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EVs of wild Pokemon can't be totally random...

#11Strat_FTWPosted 10/8/2013 4:42:08 AM
Catching 3 in a row is totally possible even though the chances are low...it's all luck.
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#12Kementarri(Topic Creator)Posted 10/8/2013 4:45:29 AM
metroidio posted...
You're using frequentest logic there, and without any adjustment for multiple hypothesis testing. If you use Bayesian logic you should hardly reject an even distribution of natures based on a 0.0064 chance of one occurrence happening; the prior that they are evenly distributed is too strong.


If I actually did testing on one specific Pokemon, say vulpix, which I recently did. I found that it is NOT Normally distributed. Don't make me catch 300 of one poke and do some tests, because I will. I've noticed over many years of nature grinding that for some reason it's easier to get certain natures on certain pokes depending on save file/what poke. Don't tell me you haven't noticed it take 10 times longer to get the nature you want in one poke than another, if you haven't noticed this you've been playing with synchronize and ever stones too long.
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#13metroidioPosted 10/8/2013 4:52:25 AM
Kementarri posted...
metroidio posted...
You're using frequentest logic there, and without any adjustment for multiple hypothesis testing. If you use Bayesian logic you should hardly reject an even distribution of natures based on a 0.0064 chance of one occurrence happening; the prior that they are evenly distributed is too strong.


If I actually did testing on one specific Pokemon, say vulpix, which I recently did. I found that it is NOT Normally distributed. Don't make me catch 300 of one poke and do some tests, because I will. I've noticed over many years of nature grinding that for some reason it's easier to get certain natures on certain pokes depending on save file/what poke. Don't tell me you haven't noticed it take 10 times longer to get the nature you want in one poke than another, if you haven't noticed this you've been playing with synchronize and ever stones too long.


Natures wouldn't be normally distributed because nature isn't a continuous variable. However, you could catch a ton of pokemon, and perform a chi-square test on the natures. It's possible that it's not random, but I wouldn't go by your past experience. Human memory is faulty, and it's easy to selectively remember things.
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