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Theory on Shiny Rate in Safaris

#21Megaman OmegaPosted 10/26/2013 11:43:28 AM
Entered dozens of safaris, found one shiny after spending hours in that safari already.
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LOL at all the whiners and trolls. They know Vita tv and new model will kill all competition. Festering wounds for the Nintendrones by the gallons. - karissa1
#22Tav-ZPosted 10/26/2013 11:49:22 AM
PKMNgamer27 posted...
Tav-Z posted...
sonofkorol posted...
Not enough evidence to either support or dismiss this. :-\


Statistical evidence would require a sample of 40+ people running through 50-100 safaris each instead of statements such as "Yeah, that once happened to me. Why?"


would it help for me to mention that 2 of my 3 were around the same time two nights in a row?


I doubt it... -.-

The TC suggests that the shiny rate for safaris has been raised compared to normal rates. In order to compare rates and conclude a significant difference between 2 rates, I'll introduce you to the law of large numbers.
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3DS: 0173 - 2262 - 1072
Eevee!
#23Brandon00151Posted 10/26/2013 11:52:38 AM
Here's my theory. Like past games every trainer has a secret ID and when that ID is matched up with a Pokemon's ID it is then determines the Pokemon's Gender,Nature, IVs and rather or not its shiny. Well with every Pokemon in Safaris guaranteed to have at least 2 perfect IVs this limits the possible ID numbers a Pokemon can have since 2 IVs are locked at 31.
#24sonofkorolPosted 10/26/2013 12:39:49 PM
Brandon00151 posted...
Here's my theory. Like past games every trainer has a secret ID and when that ID is matched up with a Pokemon's ID it is then determines the Pokemon's Gender,Nature, IVs and rather or not its shiny. Well with every Pokemon in Safaris guaranteed to have at least 2 perfect IVs this limits the possible ID numbers a Pokemon can have since 2 IVs are locked at 31.


Dunno. I've spent about 6 hours in a Hawlucha safari. No shiny Hawlucha. -sigh-
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Leader of the Dream Team (|||I '') Co-founder of GTA:SA Secret Hunters [[+]]
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#25Krissi2197(Topic Creator)Posted 10/26/2013 12:44:42 PM
I'm not saying it's confirmed, I'm just playing by ear. From what I heard, and judging by the majority of the responses in this thread, a lot of people found their shinies in the safari within the first few encounters after entering it for the first time.

It could be luck, it could be a coincidence, idk. It's just an observation.
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3DS FC: 1461 6423 5325
#26HikaruYamiPosted 10/26/2013 12:52:38 PM
Yeah, uhm, I've personally found 0 shinies in this game so far, but the law of large numbers seems to be working very strongly in favor of this theory that friend safaris have a higher shiny rate.

Like, this is not a bunch of people using confirmation bias; the number of reports I've seen of shinies in friend safaris is huge, and we definitely don't have a way to hack this game yet, which means they're not just pretending to have found legit shinies.

Assuming fewer than 50% of the reported friend safari shinies I've personally seen reported on gamefaqs are outright lies, I'd put the probability that the shiny rate has at least doubled in friend safaris at about 98%, no joke. There's a high probability that the shiny rate is even 8 or 16x the normal in friend safaris, too.
#27Tav-ZPosted 10/26/2013 1:01:17 PM
HikaruYami posted...
Yeah, uhm, I've personally found 0 shinies in this game so far, but the law of large numbers seems to be working very strongly in favor of this theory that friend safaris have a higher shiny rate.

Like, this is not a bunch of people using confirmation bias; the number of reports I've seen of shinies in friend safaris is huge, and we definitely don't have a way to hack this game yet, which means they're not just pretending to have found legit shinies.

Assuming fewer than 50% of the reported friend safari shinies I've personally seen reported on gamefaqs are outright lies, I'd put the probability that the shiny rate has at least doubled in friend safaris at about 98%, no joke. There's a high probability that the shiny rate is even 8 or 16x the normal in friend safaris, too.


Oh don't worry about that, intuition is fine. I have reason to believe it has increased as well.

But now, you make it sound like someone looking at a couple of threads on the forums is enough to prove this theory? I'm sure that your amazing ability of skimming through forums will work better than statistical evidence.
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3DS: 0173 - 2262 - 1072
Eevee!