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IV breeding: A topic with math and such.

#1The Fir CoatPosted 10/26/2013 10:09:41 PM
So IV breeding seems a lot more viable now that we aren't dealing with low ass chances anymore. I never gave half a **** about it before because there wasn't any reasonable method to get a good pokemon beyond just 31 attacking stat+31 speed+not awful defenses, but now there is a new method which seems usable. Let's look at the math.

General Information:

We have free 2IV pokemon from Friends Safari. We can go ahead and say that 3IV pokemon are available, you have roughly a 1 in 8 chance in getting one. Dittos are ideal here unless you can find someone with the actual pokemon you want. I ended up catching an entire box of dittos to get started so I could have a fair few 3IV ones to make things quicker.

Talonflame can Fly and hatches eggs faster as long as you get one with Big Pecks/Flame Body.

Destiny Knot passes 5 IVs.

Power items pass one guaranteed IV. All in all these seem fairly useless now to me simply because of space issues.

Everstone passes down nature.

2 Ability pokemon have an 80% chance of getting the mother's ability. In all calculations, assume 2 ability pokemon have a .8 multiplier on everything, I won't go through it every time.

Egg moves can be handled at the very beginning and shouldn't be a factor.

For this I am assuming you are maxing out a 5IV pokemon. If you are doing something mixed you have a lot more work ahead of you that I'll talk about at the end. I am also giving percentages for "At least this many IVs" instead of "Exactly this many IVs". I don't care for the additional subtraction and getting lucky doesn't hurt you.

Method:

So lets get started. First thing I've found is getting the nature and ability handled with either Synchronize or an Everstone Ditto. Its roughly a 25% chance to catch a starting pokemon with Sync, 50% if you have the right natured ditto. These values are doubled for 1 ability pokemon. Sync isn't hugely necessary anymore since you need a ton of dittos anyway and you have the same chances for natures.

Next the best thing to take care of is the egg moves. These are straightforward, in this gen both parents can pass them and I don't think you can **** them up. Just make sure the ones you want are at the bottom of their moveset. Egg Moves can be remembered with Heart Scales now so long as they are learned. Remeber that moves learned at the breeder are not updated until you pick the parents up, and don't worry too much about losing the moves because Heart Scales are easy to get by stealing from Luvdiscs. Your Talonflame can do this too.

Start with whatever 3IV ditto/whoever is best for your pokemon as the "father", Using destiny knot + everstone, you have a 5/6*1/2 = 5/12 chance for each stat to be passed on. You have a 5/12 * (4/5 * 1/2) = 1/6 chance to get 2 specific IVs from this. You have a 1/6 * (3/4 * 1/2) = 1/16 chance to pass all 3. Your chances for any IVs from the 3IV parent are: ~80% for one, ~42% for two and the 1/16 chance for all 3.

BUT WAIT, THERE'S MORE
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======,-' . . . . \###/ . . . .__. . . . ,'======= Auto Phoenix?!?
=====,-' . . . . . . . . . ./###\ . . ,'======== I'm boned!!
#2The Fir Coat(Topic Creator)Posted 10/26/2013 10:09:49 PM
I would really only wait for 2. This shouldn't take too long. Now you have a 2IV pokemon. You should have another 3 IV safari pokemon that has either no IVs in common or just one, they are fairly common. Lets do the math for the one with 1 IV in common.

You have a chance of getting 4 IVs. This is fairly low though (2/6 * 1/8) = 1/24. The chance of getting 3 is (1/6 * 1/8) + (1/2 * 1/4) + (2/6 * 1/4) = ~23%.

Once you get three, hopefully you have a 3IV breeding partner with the two you are missing and one you have. Maybe you don't though, it is possible you will have to settle for a 2IV partner with the two you need. If you have a 3IV partner, the chance of getting a 4IV result is 4 * (1/6 * 1/8) + (2/3 * 1/8) + (1/6 * 1/16) = ~18%. If not, the chances are 5 * (1/6 * 1/16) + (5/6 * 1/16) = ~10%.

You may find it helpful to get a 3 IV result for the faster breeding from not using ditto.

You want 2 opposite gendered 4IV pokemon with different ones missing for the final stage of the process. Breeding these, you will have a (1/6 * 1/4) = 1/24 chance to get the 5IV pokemon you're looking for. There is an additional 1/32 * ((1/2 * 1/4) + (1/3 * 1/2)) =~1%, for a total chance of roughly 5%.

Finally, for the scary 6IV people. For this you pretty much need two 5IV pokemon with different missing IVs. Your overall chance is 1/32 * ((2/3 * 1/4) + (1/3 * 1/2)) = 1/96, or just over 1%. A bit too much for me. Two pokes with the same IV missing gives you a 1/32 * 1/6 = 1/192 chance and is the much worse option overall.

Notes:

There is the 1/32 chance to roll the natural 31 for every breeding combo, but it is usually negligable and hovers around 1% all the time. I left it out for all but the final one where it is fairly significant

Breeding new pokemon doesn't have to mean starting over if you already have a 4-5IV male in the right family. Never throw away good males, and good females are good to keep as well if you might want to revisit the pokemon.

Conclusion:

Breeding is a lot less RNG reliant now, but there is still a fair amount of luck involved. Honestly there is a bit of fudging you can do if you don't care for the full 5 31s, but it is no longer essentially impossible the way it was before.
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======,-' . . . . \###/ . . . .__. . . . ,'======= Auto Phoenix?!?
=====,-' . . . . . . . . . ./###\ . . ,'======== I'm boned!!
#3The Fir Coat(Topic Creator)Posted 10/26/2013 10:21:10 PM
If anyone else feels like my math is straight wrong on the chances, please feel free to show me up. The tl;dr version of this is basically for breeding a 5IV pokemon the worst % chance you will face is roughly 5%. For a 6IV pokemon it is 1%.
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======,-' . . . . \###/ . . . .__. . . . ,'======= Auto Phoenix?!?
=====,-' . . . . . . . . . ./###\ . . ,'======== I'm boned!!
#4The Fir Coat(Topic Creator)Posted 10/27/2013 9:18:36 AM
Sooo.... Bump. There is information here which I feel can help people who are trying to decide whether or not they will start breeding for perfect IVs.
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======,-' . . . . \###/ . . . .__. . . . ,'======= Auto Phoenix?!?
=====,-' . . . . . . . . . ./###\ . . ,'======== I'm boned!!
#5MivoPosted 10/27/2013 9:33:03 AM
The Fir Coat posted...
Finally, for the scary 6IV people. For this you pretty much need two 5IV pokemon with different missing IVs. Your overall chance is 1/32 * ((2/3 * 1/4) + (1/3 * 1/2)) = 1/96, or just over 1%. A bit too much for me. Two pokes with the same IV missing gives you a 1/32 * 1/6 = 1/192 chance and is the much worse option overall.


There is a sticky topic at the top that includes mostly the same information, without the detailed math. However, the other guide states that for 6IV you need two parents with the same five perfect IVs. That seems to be incorrect, and you're right: I got a 6IV Shinx baby from two 5IV parents (with all six between them). I wasn't trying for it, but I'm not complaining.
#6Gsus_94Posted 10/27/2013 9:36:19 AM
I hatched a 6 IV Noibat from parents with 4 max IVs (the only stat missing being atk), i'm assuming that was super lucky.
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#7MivoPosted 10/27/2013 9:45:48 AM
Gsus_94 posted...
I hatched a 6 IV Noibat from parents with 4 max IVs (the only stat missing being atk), i'm assuming that was super lucky.


Yep, that was very lucky. :)

Fir Coat's math actually shows that by not following the sticky guide for a 6 IV baby (I only wanted five and couldn't get the right spread), I actually increased the chance to get one from 1:200 to 1:96 (well, a bit more since I wanted a specific ability and occasionally a rogue one crept in even though both parents had the same ability).
#8The Fir Coat(Topic Creator)Posted 10/27/2013 10:11:52 AM(edited)
Gsus_94 posted...
I hatched a 6 IV Noibat from parents with 4 max IVs (the only stat missing being atk), i'm assuming that was super lucky.


This is a 1/192 * 1/4 chance, or 1/768. So yes, you got pretty lucky.

Mivo posted...
The Fir Coat posted...
Finally, for the scary 6IV people. For this you pretty much need two 5IV pokemon with different missing IVs. Your overall chance is 1/32 * ((2/3 * 1/4) + (1/3 * 1/2)) = 1/96, or just over 1%. A bit too much for me. Two pokes with the same IV missing gives you a 1/32 * 1/6 = 1/192 chance and is the much worse option overall.


There is a sticky topic at the top that includes mostly the same information, without the detailed math. However, the other guide states that for 6IV you need two parents with the same five perfect IVs. That seems to be incorrect, and you're right: I got a 6IV Shinx baby from two 5IV parents (with all six between them). I wasn't trying for it, but I'm not complaining.


Yes, the point of this topic wasn't entirely "Here is how to do what is in the sticky topic", it was more of a "How much time will I be wasting by doing what is in the sticky topic?"
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======,-' . . . . \###/ . . . .__. . . . ,'======= Auto Phoenix?!?
=====,-' . . . . . . . . . ./###\ . . ,'======== I'm boned!!
#9MivoPosted 10/28/2013 2:38:21 AM
The advice for 6 IVs is better here. The sticky implies that 1:200 are the best odds, but it is indeed 1:96 if you use a different method.
#10novs123Posted 10/28/2013 3:33:04 AM
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]