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Are the shiny chances confirmed yet?

#21D0CR0CKPosted 11/10/2013 3:11:31 PM
mastershambler posted...
I have found 20 shinies so far. I shiny hunt about an hour or 2 a day. 18 of them were found in Friend Safari, 1 by fishing chaining and 1 in a wild Horde.

My friends think I am extremely lucky or have a really good cart. I just think im persistent and consistent.

My gf has found 4 shinies. 1 by Masuda, 2 in FS, and Clauncher fishing chaining. She doesn't shiny hunt at all.


Id agree with the luck.

I have 200+ hrs in all games since gen 1, and I have yet to SEE a singly shiny other than Lake of Rage Garyados.
#22Mariofan15Posted 11/10/2013 3:31:20 PM
FuneralCake posted...
They would need to be extremely unlucky. There are times where cautious optimism doesn't work, and this is one of those times.

Of course, we're not going to know until someone figures out how to data mine the games, but this is as good as confirmation can get.

You can keep believing that they exist, but you're just ignoring hard data that suggests otherwise.


What hard data? All I see is you trying to prove they're shiny locked with no actual evidence to back it up. Nobody know's for sure so saying it's pretty much confirmed is ignorant.
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#23jayman7Posted 11/10/2013 3:35:49 PM
Rupin_Salesman posted...
FuneralCake posted...
Apparently in the wild it's 1/4096. Going by that, the Masuda Method would probably be 1/1024.

We don't know about the Friend Safari yet.


If the wild one is true, they seriously did halve it. That's amazing.


No, this means they would have doubled it. 1/8192 * 2 = 1/4096.

1/8192 * 1/2 = 1/16384.
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#24WetterdewPosted 11/10/2013 3:47:48 PM
It's safe to say that the legendaries don't have the same shiny rate as other Pokemon since so many people have the game at this point and many of them have reset many times to get a good cover legendary, but we still haven't seen a shiny one. The game has sold millions of copies, so the chance that the rate of shininess for Xerneas/Yveltal is 1/8192 or better is so low that if we were checking for statistical significance, the p value would definitely be below .05.
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#25megaxleoxPosted 11/10/2013 3:50:40 PM
Yeah, because having shinies makes you a better player.
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#26Rupin_Salesman(Topic Creator)Posted 11/10/2013 3:59:22 PM
jayman7 posted...
Rupin_Salesman posted...
FuneralCake posted...
Apparently in the wild it's 1/4096. Going by that, the Masuda Method would probably be 1/1024.

We don't know about the Friend Safari yet.


If the wild one is true, they seriously did halve it. That's amazing.


No, this means they would have doubled it. 1/8192 * 2 = 1/4096.

1/8192 * 1/2 = 1/16384.


Oh, sorry. Worded it wrong.
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