If we're talking about major PS3 exclusives, it might have happened in 2011. tlou isn't going to a major release compared to the standards experts go by, if gow:ascension does 1 million first month, maybe.
It may get announced in 2013 but I doubt it'll hit the shelves until 2014 at least. Even so, I wouldn't be terribly surprised to see a 2013 release, but we usually get more of a heads-up on stuff like that.
The sudden elevated efforts to make PS3 games available online may be an indication of what's to come.
BTW. I got to see some CG from the next gen graphics engines. It's more of a leap forward from the PS3 then the PS3 was from the PS2. You basically can't tell the stuff is animated at all! In one case I mistook it for a HD movie at first glance. The first time I saw it, I saw a preview for Skyrim later that day. It made Skyrim look like a Saturday morning cartoon.
'In this great world full of stuff that's neat there is one thing that cannot be beat. It's the feeling so sunny when your squeezing a bunny" ELMYRA DUFF