Ok. So there's a 1/8192 chance of getting a shiny. I've heard a lot of my friends complaining that they haven't seen any shinies at all, and for their sake, and for anyone else who is curious, I've done some calculations:
Your chances of finding your first shiny within (insert number here) battles: Within 1 battle: 0.0122% (good luck with that one.) Within 100 battles: 1.2% (12 people out of 1000 will see one within the first 100 wild pokemon battles.) Within 500 battles: 5.9% Within 1000 battles: 11% Within 3000 battles: 30.6% Within 5000 battles: 45.67% Within 5681 battles: 50% (At this point, you will have a coin's flip chance of finding a shiny for every run of 5681 battles you do.) Within 8192 battles: 63.19% (Just because you have a 1/8192 chance of finding a shiny does not mean you will be guaranteed one within 8192 battles) Within 11,363 battles: 75% Within 18,875 battles: 90% Within 37,800 battles: 99% Within 80,000 battles: 99.99%
These calculations assume you're only looking for one shiny. However, the chance of finding a shiny is so slim, that you can basically take this to mean find at lease 1 shiny within X number of battles. To give you an idea of the difference:
The chance of finding one shiny within 18,875 battles: 90.00% The chance of finding at least one shiny within 18,875 battles: 90.01%.
So, if you ever start complaining about how you haven't found a single shiny yet, ask yourself... "Have I fought enough battles to make it likely?" (A safe bet would be about 18,875 battles.) --- Platinum FC: Flak 5284 7361 6972
From: BandanaDee | #003 Nope, not true. The chance is 1/8192. Always.
5 battles in, the chance is 1/8192. Over 9000!!!battles in, the chance is still 1/8192.
You don't know how statistics and probability work.
If I have a coin lets say. I want a heads.
First flip I have a 50% chance, second flip, I also have a 50% chance. Now for probabilities of separate events, you add them together. So if I were to do two separate flips, I technically have a 100% chance of flipping a heads one of those times. While this isn't technically true, thats the probability of it. --- Pokemon Platinum FC: 1676 9663 0922
Yes, that's the chance of finding a shiny AT battle number X, but what my probabilities show is what are the chances of finding a shiny WITHIN X number of battles. There's a difference. --- Platinum FC: Flak 5284 7361 6972
First flip I have a 50% chance, second flip, I also have a 50% chance. Now for probabilities of separate events, you add them together. So if I were to do two separate flips, I technically have a 100% chance of flipping a heads one of those times. While this isn't technically true, thats the probability of it.
--- I don't like adults with imaginary friends. Please don't litter your mind. Proud to be free from religion. Proud to be vegetarian. Go green.
banana...Zack's math is correct...he's explaining what is called the "wait time" for a random event...
that's different from the probability of a single event...what you're talking about... --- Heard this exchange at my school: Teacher: "You got a 0 out of 50 on your quiz." Student: "Did that hurt my grade?"