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Chances of getting a shiny...

#1Zack_WilderPosted 4/27/2009 6:19:03 PM
Ok. So there's a 1/8192 chance of getting a shiny. I've heard a lot of my friends complaining that they haven't seen any shinies at all, and for their sake, and for anyone else who is curious, I've done some calculations:

Your chances of finding your first shiny within (insert number here) battles:
Within 1 battle: 0.0122% (good luck with that one.)
Within 100 battles: 1.2% (12 people out of 1000 will see one within the first 100 wild pokemon battles.)
Within 500 battles: 5.9%
Within 1000 battles: 11%
Within 3000 battles: 30.6%
Within 5000 battles: 45.67%
Within 5681 battles: 50% (At this point, you will have a coin's flip chance of finding a shiny for every run of 5681 battles you do.)
Within 8192 battles: 63.19% (Just because you have a 1/8192 chance of finding a shiny does not mean you will be guaranteed one within 8192 battles)
Within 11,363 battles: 75%
Within 18,875 battles: 90%
Within 37,800 battles: 99%
Within 80,000 battles: 99.99%

These calculations assume you're only looking for one shiny. However, the chance of finding a shiny is so slim, that you can basically take this to mean find at lease 1 shiny within X number of battles. To give you an idea of the difference:

The chance of finding one shiny within 18,875 battles: 90.00%
The chance of finding at least one shiny within 18,875 battles: 90.01%.

So, if you ever start complaining about how you haven't found a single shiny yet, ask yourself... "Have I fought enough battles to make it likely?" (A safe bet would be about 18,875 battles.)
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Platinum FC: Flak 5284 7361 6972
#2CaptainObv1ousPosted 4/27/2009 6:21:52 PM
STICKY PLZ
l,l
#3BandanaDeePosted 4/27/2009 6:23:47 PM
Nope, not true. The chance is 1/8192. Always.

5 battles in, the chance is 1/8192.
Over 9000!!!battles in, the chance is still 1/8192.
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Pokemon Platinum - Ryu's FC: 5327 7263 7917
Pokemon Pearl - Sakura's FC: 3781 5208 2447
#4PokerChamp42Posted 4/27/2009 6:26:40 PM
Nope, not true. The chance is 1/8192. Always.

5 battles in, the chance is 1/8192.
Over 9000!!!battles in, the chance is still 1/8192.


That's not the same as asking "what's probability of seeing a shiny within x tries."

Learn math.

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I don't like adults with imaginary friends. Please don't litter your mind.
Proud to be free from religion. Proud to be vegetarian. Go green.
#5yzmanPosted 4/27/2009 6:26:47 PM

From: BandanaDee | #003
Nope, not true. The chance is 1/8192. Always.

5 battles in, the chance is 1/8192.
Over 9000!!!battles in, the chance is still 1/8192.




You don't know how statistics and probability work.

If I have a coin lets say. I want a heads.

First flip I have a 50% chance, second flip, I also have a 50% chance. Now for probabilities of separate events, you add them together. So if I were to do two separate flips, I technically have a 100% chance of flipping a heads one of those times. While this isn't technically true, thats the probability of it.
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Pokemon Platinum FC: 1676 9663 0922
#6Zack_Wilder(Topic Creator)Posted 4/27/2009 6:27:43 PM
Yes, that's the chance of finding a shiny AT battle number X, but what my probabilities show is what are the chances of finding a shiny WITHIN X number of battles. There's a difference.
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Platinum FC: Flak 5284 7361 6972
#7PokerChamp42Posted 4/27/2009 6:27:52 PM
First flip I have a 50% chance, second flip, I also have a 50% chance. Now for probabilities of separate events, you add them together. So if I were to do two separate flips, I technically have a 100% chance of flipping a heads one of those times. While this isn't technically true, thats the probability of it.

Fail HARD.

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I don't like adults with imaginary friends. Please don't litter your mind.
Proud to be free from religion. Proud to be vegetarian. Go green.
#8BandanaDeePosted 4/27/2009 6:28:10 PM
My main point is that x tries will not affect your chances of seeing a shiny.
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Pokemon Platinum - Ryu's FC: 5327 7263 7917
Pokemon Pearl - Sakura's FC: 3781 5208 2447
#9PokerChamp42Posted 4/27/2009 6:29:13 PM
My main point is that x tries will not affect your chances of seeing a shiny.

It will, for the whole sample, but not on any specific try.

Once again, learn math.

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I don't like adults with imaginary friends. Please don't litter your mind.
Proud to be free from religion. Proud to be vegetarian. Go green.
#10WyrlwyndPosted 4/27/2009 6:31:19 PM
banana...Zack's math is correct...he's explaining what is called the "wait time" for a random event...

that's different from the probability of a single event...what you're talking about...
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Heard this exchange at my school: Teacher: "You got a 0 out of 50 on your quiz." Student: "Did that hurt my grade?"