FFXI has a few more servers, but has the same amount of people on each at one time, and it has ~450k subs. But once the free trial ends, I see FFXIV subs dropping to ~200k at the best. I hope they can ready it for the PS3 launch.
At this point, SE is better off renaming Final Fantasy XI to Final Fantasy XIV and hope people who never played FF XI don't notice. I honestly think that's the better option than flogging this dead horse.