Official sales predictions thread

#1Phasmatis92Posted 4/12/2011 1:23:23 AM
I estimate 40k week one, and 300k lifetime.

For comparison, The Conduit sold 80k in its first week, and 500k in total.

As I've said, I hope I'm wrong, but I think the first game's poor rep and the lesser hype this time around will work against C2's sales.
#2ChangliniPosted 4/12/2011 2:36:54 AM
How much did the first game get?
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#3RotA_ExodiaPosted 4/12/2011 2:48:23 AM
90k / 600k
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#4Phasmatis92(Topic Creator)Posted 4/12/2011 3:12:55 AM
^ VGChartz says 80k/500k, but meh, small difference.
#5PedroMontanaPosted 4/12/2011 4:26:14 AM
I could imagine the lifetime sales being higher, mostly because of the inclusion of local multiplayer and the (hopefully) more stable online component. So i guess 700k lifetime sales are possible.

First week could be worse because there is less hype, i wouldn't be surprised about 40k.



I'm not sure how much of a burden the reception of the first game will be. It wasn't great and it was overhyped, but Sega/HVS never mislead people like Ubisoft did with Red Steel.
RS 2 failed because the almost 2 million people who bought the first had all reason to be disappointed. Ubi released a lot of bullshots and manipulative videos that made RS look like something it wasn't and the game had a load of unnecessary problems (the sniper zoom, mapping all kinds of stuff to nunchuck waggle...).
Now, the original Conduit was overhyped by overconfident people, but in the end it was a "what you see is what you get" affair. The controls worked as advertised and the graphics looked like in the official screens and videos.
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#6gojomosoPosted 4/12/2011 4:35:04 AM
50k first week
200k lift time
but i hope im wrong
#7Lunch-LadyPosted 4/12/2011 4:50:38 AM

Lets be serious. Most of the guys who bought TCON were Wii's guys who could buy the $600 playstation. Now the other systems are cheaper and I see way worse sales for this game. I will still get it but I don't see it being a great success.

#8PedroMontanaPosted 4/12/2011 5:25:55 AM
@ Lunch Lady:
I think your theory makes sense to a certain extend*, but in practice the consistent sales of the Wii CoD games and the very good sales of Goldeneye (which is outselling the Wii CoDs) show that the number of Wii users who are willing to buy FPS is not (significantly) decreasing.

*Keep in mind THE FPS console has always been the 360, which never cost 600$ and is available for affordable prices for some time now.
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#9Phasmatis92(Topic Creator)Posted 4/12/2011 5:55:21 AM(edited)
"I'm not sure how much of a burden the reception of the first game will be. It wasn't great and it was overhyped, but Sega/HVS never mislead people like Ubisoft did with Red Steel.
RS 2 failed because the almost 2 million people who bought the first had all reason to be disappointed. Ubi released a lot of bullshots and manipulative videos that made RS look like something it wasn't and the game had a load of unnecessary problems (the sniper zoom, mapping all kinds of stuff to nunchuck waggle...).
Now, the original Conduit was overhyped by overconfident people, but in the end it was a "what you see is what you get" affair. The controls worked as advertised and the graphics looked like in the official screens and videos."

True, TCON's reception and backlash wasn't close to as bad as Red Steel, but there was still a lot of gamers who expected it to be the definitive Wii shooter and were let down, and bad word of mouth spread as a result, which I expect will lead a lot of people to dismiss the sequel out of hand.
I really hope I am wrong and you are right, though.





"Lets be serious. Most of the guys who bought TCON were Wii's guys who could buy the $600 playstation. Now the other systems are cheaper and I see way worse sales for this game. I will still get it but I don't see it being a great success."

Technically, PS3 was $500 USD at TCON's launch but was cut to $300 about a month later, so for most of TCON's sales life the PS3 was $300; hardly unaffordable.
I don't really agree on the userbases intersecting though; the PS3 isn't the go-to platform for FPS games, the 360 is, and you could snag yourself a 360 arcade and a copy of Halo 3 for less than $300 at the time of TCON's release.

Goldeneye 007, Modern Warfare Reflex, and Black Ops have all sold well on Wii despite the PS3/360 costing $200-$300 at the time of their release, so I don't think the "cheaper HD consoles = less Wii shooter sales" really works.

(EDIT: PedroMontana beat me to this one, he posted while I was writing...)
#10scrubking2006Posted 4/12/2011 12:22:52 PM
Multiple delays, little press, no advertising, same day release as MK and Portal 2 means this game is going to bomb horribly. It will be extremely lucky to reach 300k.
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