The 3DS will likely cost more than the DSiXL as Nintendo doesn't sell at a loss. They don't overcharge either, and I doubt it's significantly more pricey to produce. I'd expect it anywhere from 200-250. ~220 would be my guess.
Don't compare it directly to the XL. Those 2 big screens in the XL are what it makes cost so much. The 3DS is a different package altogether, and economies of scale for a new system will work in its favor. I'm sure Nintendo's supply partners will give them very favorable prices in anticipation of vast sales figures.
>---Diggerdude---< Loves handhelds: owns PSP, NDSL & many others.
This isn't like the DS/Wii launch, where it was a gamble for Nintendo on whether their odd technology handheld/console would catch on with the mainstream audience.
This time, they know they have a huge mainstream DS userbase, both casual players and more longterm gamers, who are frothing at the mouth to get one before the system is even released. No matter how much Nintendo price it at, they know that there's gonna be christmas mayhem if it's released this year, and everyone will still be desperate to get one if it's released in 2011, just not all at once compared to christmas.
It's kinda like how when a new iPad launches for a crazy high price, their userbase is so huge that the price almost becomes irrelevant: People will snap it up regardless.
I'm personally hoping it'll be $20, as I'm poor...
BUT seeing as that is completely out of the question and unrealistic (except in my fantasy world XD), I'd definitely bank on it being between the exact price the DSi XL is now, or upwards to $225. Somewhere in there.