I have no idea what Nintendo is doing with the Wii U.

#21AhnoldDoodPosted 8/3/2013 4:01:32 AM
Claytronic posted...
WickedSickJosh posted...
What till the end of the year when Super Mario 3D World, Wind Waker HD, Wonderful 101, Sonic: Lost World and Donkey Kong Country Returns 2 come out this year. Then we still have Mario Kart 8, Super Smash Bros, and whatever else comes out next year. The system will be fine. The 3DS went through the exact same troubles.


Keep in mind that people were saying almost the exact same thing during the early GameCube days, and things did not turn out well for that system:

Smash Bros. may have been available at the Cube's launch (practically), but people were mostly disappointed that a traditional Mario game wasn't around yet. "Just wait 'til next year! We're getting a new Mario in Summer 2002!" Mario Sunshine came and went with average reviews (selling, over its entire shelf life, approximately half of what Mario 64 sold), with some people outright hating it.

Then it was "Well, wait 'til Spring 2003! The new Zelda is coming then! That'll shut up all the Cube haters!" Wind Waker arrived, and while I and many others enjoyed it, the reality is that the art style put off too many of Ocarina's fans, and it ended up selling three million copies less than that game.

Then it was Mario Kart. "EVERYONE loves Mario Kart! If there's a game that will turn around this system's misfortunes, just wait until November 2003! Casual gamers and Nintendo veterans alike will be buying up systems like crazy to get a new Mario Kart fix!" Mario Kart: Double Dash sold two million less than Mario Kart 64.

By that point, the GameCube had been out for exactly two years, and its "big three" games failed to generate substantial system sales to match even the N64's 33 million units sold. In fact, the GameCube system itself only racked up worldwide sales of 22 million. Don't get me wrong, 22 million would be a substantial amount for any fledgling, new-to-the-console-wars video game company, but this was Nintendo. With their fourth system, no less.

Of course, the GameCube certainly had more problems than just the lukewarm reception of a few games (the whole "We're refusing online for our system" issue, for starters), but the perceived quality of many of the system's first-party games really hurt it.

I'm not trying to say (or even imply) that the Wii U will be a repeat of the GameCube. Personally, I'd love for it to pull a 180 similar to what the 3DS did and become a system that most are willing to own.

What I am saying is that it could just as easily go the other way, as shown with the GameCube, and that it's a little premature to predict, right now, which direction the system will head in terms of popularity and sales. For all video game systems, my rule of thumb is to give them two years from launch before attempting to make predictions regarding a console's future. By that point, you could start to get a whiff of things ending up poorly for the GameCube.

*wait for everyone to flame me to death for daring to compare the Wii U to the GameCube. sighs*

ALL I'M SAYING IS "WAIT SOME MORE BEFORE PREDICTING ONE WAY OR THE OTHER!" (at least this is on the 3DS board... maybe I'll be ok?)


Oh look, more of this "But it didn't work for the GC!" bull again. Were you disconnected from gaming this past decade or did you not realise that Nintendo's IPs are much more popular today than it was in the early 2000s? Mario Kart Wii itself outsells the GAMECUBE ITSELF.
#22ClaytronicPosted 8/3/2013 8:36:42 AM
AhnoldDood posted...
Claytronic posted...
WickedSickJosh posted...
What till the end of the year when Super Mario 3D World, Wind Waker HD, Wonderful 101, Sonic: Lost World and Donkey Kong Country Returns 2 come out this year. Then we still have Mario Kart 8, Super Smash Bros, and whatever else comes out next year. The system will be fine. The 3DS went through the exact same troubles.


Keep in mind that people were saying almost the exact same thing during the early GameCube days, and things did not turn out well for that system:


Oh look, more of this "But it didn't work for the GC!" bull again. Were you disconnected from gaming this past decade or did you not realise that Nintendo's IPs are much more popular today than it was in the early 2000s? Mario Kart Wii itself outsells the GAMECUBE ITSELF.


So there's nothing to worry about, then? It's a guarantee that sales will pick up dramatically, since a new installment of a series that enjoyed huge sales success on the Wii is coming out? That's a relief... but just for fun, let's compare the sales of New Super Mario Bros. Wii to New Super Mario Bros. U

NSMBW:

From the game's launch (November 2009) to May 7, 2010 (the closest sales data I could find to the end of that fiscal quarter), worldwide sales hit 14.7 million units (http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/library/events/100507/03.html). In fact, it seems that NSMBW is the fastest-selling video game title to ever hit 3 million units sold in Japan (accomplishing the feat in just seven weeks: http://kotaku.com/5451659/super-mario-bros-wii-fastest-wii-title-to-hit-three-million-in-japan) WOW. With insane sales like that, I guess that means people bought up the Wii U in droves to play the newest installment?

NSMBU:

From the game's launch (November 2012) to March 31st, 2013, worldwide sales were at 2.15 million (http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/sales/software/wiiu.html). Granted that this amount of time is more than a month shorter than the sales timeline I provided for NSMBW, but I think it makes for a pretty fair comparison regardless. For God's sake, NSMBW's first seven weeks in Japan alone pass the first four worldwide months of NSMBU right there.

So, what, is the New Super Mario Bros. series' lack of sales on the Wii U just an exception?

I agree that it's silly to say "series X didn't work on the GameCube so it won't work on the Wii U" (which, I think I made quite clear, I was not personally saying). But it seems to me that it's equally silly to say "series X enjoyed huge success on the Wii, so it WILL work on the Wii U!"

Nintendo's IPs are "much more popular today" because everyone and their dog bought a Wii and DS. Currently, the same hasn't happened with the Wii U and 3DS (though 3DS sales are steadily increasing, it still has a long road ahead of it to match the sales of the DS).

All I was saying is that making the assumption that "everyone will be all over the Wii U's Mario Kart/3D Mario/Zelda and sales will be great" is eerily reminiscent of the proclamations during the GameCube era (a system I love, by the way, and own exactly 50 games for). Just because those franchises enjoyed massive success on the Wii is not a guarantee that it'll happen again. Judging from this current point in time (which, again, seems premature to me) a 3DS-style turnabout is possible. But so is a GameCube-style failure.
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#23WickedSickJoshPosted 8/3/2013 11:36:43 AM
@Claytronic:

Sure, the Gamecube wasn't Nintendo's best selling system but there's a few things you have to take into consideration. Mario Sunshine and Wind Waker were pretty obscene at the time due to the direction the games were going, that turned a lot of people off. With DKCR2 and SM3DW we know EXACTLY what we're getting and we're getting sequels to already successful games, not something absurd.

It's also unfair to compare NSMBW sales to NSMBWU sales. NSMBW came out in the mid-life of the Wii, when it was at its peak. NSMBWU came out at launch, and predictably like ALL consoles at launch, sales were lower than an already well established console.

Facts are, the Wii U hasn't even been out for a year yet and it's going to have a pretty good selection of games by this Holiday season. Lets see how this holiday goes before we start comparing it to the Gamecube (not sure why you did, the Wii, 3DS and DS started off the same way).
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#24zealouscloudsPosted 8/3/2013 12:02:26 PM
I think Nintendo is in a really tough spot...competing with corporations like Sony and Microsoft is very difficult.

I think they NEED a price drop, I think they know this, but timing is everything.
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#25Yayyy123Posted 8/3/2013 12:39:44 PM
DirtBasedSoap posted...
But the 3DS will be pretty much perfect after Pokemon and SSB3D. It's nice to see Nintendo put this much effort into their handhelds.



And Zelda, don't forget ALBTW.
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#26DirtBasedSoap(Topic Creator)Posted 8/3/2013 12:50:54 PM
Yayyy123 posted...
DirtBasedSoap posted...
But the 3DS will be pretty much perfect after Pokemon and SSB3D. It's nice to see Nintendo put this much effort into their handhelds.



And Zelda, don't forget ALBTW.


Never was a fan of the 2D Zeldas. Rather have Majora's Mask 3DS, tbqh.
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#27ClaytronicPosted 8/3/2013 1:27:12 PM
WickedSickJosh posted...
@Claytronic:

Sure, the Gamecube wasn't Nintendo's best selling system but there's a few things you have to take into consideration. Mario Sunshine and Wind Waker were pretty obscene at the time due to the direction the games were going, that turned a lot of people off. With DKCR2 and SM3DW we know EXACTLY what we're getting and we're getting sequels to already successful games, not something absurd.

It's also unfair to compare NSMBW sales to NSMBWU sales. NSMBW came out in the mid-life of the Wii, when it was at its peak. NSMBWU came out at launch, and predictably like ALL consoles at launch, sales were lower than an already well established console.


Not to sound like a condescending ass (though I'm sure I will, so apologies in advance), but your second paragraph seems to contradict your first, as NSMBU is a very direct sequel to NSMBW. Meaning, everyone knew "exactly" what they were getting (a sequel to a hugely popular game), it was available at launch, and... very few cared (or at least, very few cared enough to buy a whole new system for it). Most looked at it and said "Eh, same old, not worth the investment" and promptly passed on it. If people didn't care about a sequel to the fastest-selling Mario game ever, I don't really see how another similar (granted, somewhat-different) Mario (and certainly not Donkey Kong) are going to fare any better in terms of moving systems.

I understand your point about the different launch periods for NSMBW and U, but the thing is, Nintendo originally projected 5.5 million Wii U's to be sold from launch to March 31, 2013 (putting it roughly at the same sales as what the Wii managed during its same period). That number tells me that not only were they expecting a "Wii-frenzy"-like launch, but also that they likely thought that NSMBU would burn up the sales charts much like its predecessor did ("We're launching the follow-up to the Wii alongside the follow-up to the hugely popular NSMBW! We're giving them TWO fantastic products on the same day! Get those dump trucks full of money ready to head to HQ, pronto!"). Then the system launched, and they lowered expectations to 4 million. It ended up selling less than 3.5 million by March. They were banking on NSMBU to be a system-seller and it wasn't, not by a long shot.

Facts are, the Wii U hasn't even been out for a year yet and it's going to have a pretty good selection of games by this Holiday season.

Y'see, a statement like that, I'm completely fine with. What annoys me is all of these people stating "The next Mario/Kart/Zelda/Donkey Kong will turn things around for the Wii U, you'll see" when they have absolutely no guarantee of that. That's what made me bring up the Gamecube.

Let's see how this holiday goes before we start comparing it to the Gamecube (not sure why you did, the Wii, 3DS and DS started off the same way).

I sure wouldn't include the Wii in there (the system flew off the shelves for three straight years, after all, regardless of what games were or were not available) but my comparing the Wii U to the GameCube (and 3DS) was basically my entire point in the first place: Is it too early to predict how the Wii U will do in the long run? Yes. Having said that, does the Wii U's first year bear striking similarities to the first year of both the GameCube and the 3DS? Yes. (and yes, the DS too, as that had a pretty brutal first year)

All I was saying is that history (Nintendo's own history, specifically) has shown us that things can go either way, and people shouldn't just automatically decree: "New installments in beloved franchises are coming out soon! All will be well!"
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#28ClaytronicPosted 8/3/2013 1:34:45 PM
zealousclouds posted...
I think Nintendo is in a really tough spot...competing with corporations like Sony and Microsoft is very difficult.

I think they NEED a price drop, I think they know this, but timing is everything.


While I certainly wouldn't be adverse to a price drop, it's not always the key to success, despite what the 3DS might suggest. The GameCube (*sigh* I seem to be becoming "that" guy) launched at $249.99, and two years later (by Autumn 2003) it was at $99.99 (often with a free game bundled-in). It still wasn't enough though, as most people didn't find the software compelling enough.

Having said that, I do believe the deluxe Wii U should be reduced to (at least) $299.99, and $199.99 for the basic. Nintendo has almost always been the considerably cheaper video game system alternative, and pricing the Wii U above $299.99 was a large misstep, in my opinion.
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A friend of mine thought that he had an NES toploader, until I informed him that it was a Super NES.
#29GhetsisPosted 8/3/2013 1:52:04 PM
I really don't think that a 92 on GameRankings is what people would call "average reviews."
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#30EndgamePosted 8/3/2013 2:13:13 PM
oh goodie, the NDF's need for wiiussurance is so dire that it's seeped into the 3DS board

I am enjoying this greatly
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