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Turnip Prices Mini-Guide 1.0

#1ThadBarrPosted 6/10/2013 4:55:02 AM
Just in time for the first Monday AM quote of the North American release, yay!

Intro--Most information presented here is taken and adapted from materials found in Liquefy's ACNL FAQ and -Matty2-'s ACCF Stalk Market Guide. I recommend you read their coverage of the subject if you want the most comprehensive information. Any mistakes and omissions are my own fault.


1. Where to Buy Turnips--Joan sells turnips between 6 am and noon on Sunday. She moves around sort of randomly through town, but once you locate here the first time, she can usually be found more or less in the same spot if you return quickly or on a regular basis. Her sale prices vary between 90 and 110 bells per week.


2. Turnip Prices--Reese buys turnips Monday through Saturday, and quotes two different prices each day. She will give you her morning quote between 9 am and noon, and the evening quote between noon and 11 pm. She does not buy turnips on Sunday. All turnips will rot--no exceptions--after midnight on Saturday.


3. Turnip Price Patterns--There are four patterns that Reese's quotes follow: "Constantly-Decreasing", "Random-Price", "Small-Spike", and "Large-Spike". You need to be able to collect both price quotes on a daily basis to give you the best chance of determining which pattern you have in any one week. Also, the pattern for the one week will influence odds of the pattern for the next week. So it helps to keep a written log of your quotes from week to week.


4. Constantly-Decreasing--Prices keep decreasing with every quote, dropping by between 2 and 7 bells each time. Here are some sample Constantly-Decreasing price runs from my real-time-only JP village.

98 94 89 86 84 77 73 67 64 59 55 51
82 77 74 70 67 63 60 54 52 49 45 41
93 88 83 79 74 69 65 61 56 52 49 46


5. Small-Spike--Looks just like Constantly-Decreasing, except that there is a run of five prices that are higher than normal. The fourth price is the highest.

69 65 61 58 54 91 102 132 137 127 41 38
90 86 81 78 134 136 162 188 185 60 57 52


6. Large-Spike--Looks much like the Constantly-Decreasing and Small-Spike patterns, except that there is a run of five prices that are higher than normal. The third price is the highest, and it is significantly higher than a Small-Spike. Also, there is a "Dead Cat Bounce" at the very tail end (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_cat_bounce).

89 85 81 109 159 519 152 100 53 74 70 78
94 103 174 315 185 125 91 89 60 52 98 93
84 88 182 321 156 128 56 46 73 83 50 56
93 136 194 571 195 118 54 52 96 80 94 53
92 87 123 164 328 184 108 50 56 59 86 66


7. Random--Completely unpredictable.

126 116 133 132 117 78 72 103 109 80 74 65
101 116 101 128 95 123 74 67 125 59 55 49
108 126 129 135 63 54 48 131 128 60 52 99
109 62 57 115 93 106 97 62 54 49 105 95
#2ThadBarr(Topic Creator)Posted 6/10/2013 5:01:29 AM(edited)
8. Relationships between Preceding and Subsequent Weeks--Liquefy's ACNL FAQ has the only reported coverage on this subject, and I suggest that you read about it there. But the short version is that, in general, patterns are less likely to repeat in back-to-back weeks. After a Small-Spike or a Large-Spike, you are more likely to see a Random pattern. And after a Constantly-Decreasing week, you are more likely to see a Large-Spike. Here are all my price patterns for the last three months, presented in order.

M T W Th F Sa Apparent Pattern
98 94 89 86 84 77 73 67 64 59 55 51 --Constantly-Decreasing
89 85 81 109 159 519 152 100 53 74 70 78 --Large-Spike
69 65 61 58 54 91 102 132 137 127 41 38 --Small-Spike
126 116 133 132 117 78 72 103 109 80 74 65 --Random
94 103 174 315 185 125 91 89 60 52 98 93 --Large-Spike
101 116 101 128 95 123 74 67 125 59 55 49 --Random
93 136 194 571 195 118 54 52 96 80 94 53 --Large-Spike
82 77 74 70 67 63 60 54 52 49 45 41 --Constantly-Decreasing
84 88 182 321 156 128 56 46 73 83 50 56 --Large-Spike
108 126 129 135 63 54 48 131 128 60 52 99 --Random
93 136 194 571 195 118 54 52 96 80 94 53 --Large-Spike
109 62 57 115 93 106 97 62 54 49 105 95 --Random
90 86 81 78 134 136 162 188 185 60 57 52 --Small-Spike
92 87 123 164 328 184 108 50 56 59 86 66 --Large-Spike


9. Pattern Probabilities--After carefully considering reports from Liquefy and -Matty2-, and comparing them against my own experiences, I personally feel that the odds of each of the four patterns are about equal in the long run. But without TTing, there is no way for me to obtain enough data to provide meaningful statistical conclusions. For those that enjoy numbers, Liquefy's guide has the best coverage of statistical patterns and their implications for in-game strategies that I have seen anywhere.


10. Identifying Patterns--This can be difficult at first, but with each succeeding quote, correct determination of a pattern becomes more and more likely. Missing quotes will make identification that much more difficult.

Random patterns, simply by virtue of being Random, can easy imitate Constantly-Decreasing or Small-Spike runs at the beginning of a week and even sometimes continue to do so for most (or even in theory, all) of the entire run. Random patterns do provide perfectly legitimate opportunities for significant profit, but this depends on your risk tolerance. If you are risk averse, it best sell all turnips as soon as you can break even or better. I personally sell as soon as prices hit 130 as soon as I have positively identified a pattern as being Random (achieving this condition is not as easy as it might sound).

Because both of the Spikes take 5 days to play out, if you have been looking a Constantly-Decreasing pattern that continues into the Thursday PM quote, you need to sell all turnips immediately. The Dead Cat Bounce at the end of the Large-Spike spike is more helpful than it might look. It is important that you not sell immediately after missing the high end of a Large-Spike, because the bounce may allow you to break even or at least largely mitigate any losses. It can also comes handy (along with the Random pattern) in case you'd like to help other online players on Saturday night.
#3ThadBarr(Topic Creator)Posted 6/10/2013 4:56:14 AM
11. To Conclude--In the unlikely event that anyone is considering it, I would rather this mini-guide not be stickied or added to any FAQ databases at this time, as I would like opportunities for possible expansion and/or amendation of this information.

I would again like to thank Liquefy and -Matty2- for their earlier treatments of this material. Their original writings on the subject can be found at

http://www.gamefaqs.com/3ds/997811-animal-crossing-new-leaf/faqs/65246 (Liquefy) and
http://www.gamefaqs.com/wii/933195-animal-crossing-city-folk/faqs/55321 (-Matty2-)

Good luck to all.
#4mnkboy907Posted 6/10/2013 11:54:33 AM
Well my first two quotes were 74 and 91, so at least I didn't get the "constantly decreasing" pattern this week.

Thanks for the mini-guide!
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http://i.imgur.com/ua00T9H.gif
http://i.imgur.com/gw03gl7.png - Number of people that D'awwed: 75
#5oobrknsmileooPosted 6/10/2013 11:56:06 AM
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
#6ThadBarr(Topic Creator)Posted 6/10/2013 8:40:56 PM
My JP prices so far are: 75 71. And my NA prices are: 55 51.

The odds of both being Random or Constantly-Declining are pretty low. I very likely have a Small or Low Spike in there somewhere. On the other hand, my JP village had a Large Spike last week, so I will have to see.
#7ThadBarr(Topic Creator)Posted 6/11/2013 7:45:23 AM
My JP prices are now 75 71 67, which is consistent with a Constantly-Decreasing week after the Large-Spike from the week before.

My NA prices are 55 51 138. This still possibly could be a Random run, but far more likely is a Small-Spike or Large-Spike. If it's Large, the peak will hit Wednesday morning. If it's Small, the peak will hit Wednesday Thursday. So I've already set aside two hours during both those time periods to sell all my turnip stock.

And while I'm on the subject, the major problem with turnips is how tedious they are. On Sunday morning, I bought three full-sized rooms worth of turnips and then some. Final-stage rooms are 8 X 8 = 64 spaces. The max-size turnip stack is 10 bundles of 10 ten turnips, which is 10 X 10 = 100 turnips to a space. That comes out to 64 X 100 X 3 = 19,200 turnips. I think I also have another 2000 in my closets and 1000 just lying around in my entry room (I am not the most organized person, as anyone who has visited my JP village can attest too).

But let's just round the number to 20,000 to make the math simpler. I bought at 99, but again, let's round to 100. That means my Sunday investment was 2 million turnips. If I sell now, my profit is 760,000 bells (2,000,000 X (138-100)). It generally takes about 2 hours to buy that many turnips (although this Sunday, it took less, because Joan was parked right outside my door), and it will likely take an hour or so to sell all the turnips and deposit all the bells.

That's not bad, but three hours of catching fish/bugs from the Island will make a few hundred thousand bells, too. What I am really hoping for a Large-Spike in the 600 range. That would allow for a 10 million bell profit (2 million X (600-100)). If I had complete filled all my rooms and half of the closet, I would be looking at 20 million. And if I had bought enough to pack two fully-built houses, I'd be hitting 40 million at profit.

I'm not sure it's possible to do better than that, because there are only six hours available to buy turnips, and is a time-consuming task. I might cover basic tips for speeding up the process of dealing with Joan later.
#8ThadBarr(Topic Creator)Posted 6/12/2013 9:24:15 AM
My NA turnips ended up being a Short-Spike--55 51 138 124 168 188

I was about to start selling the whole 20K+ turnip inventory, except that surprisingly enough, my JP village decided to have some sort of Spike as well--75 71 67 64 59 119

This raises an interesting question: If you have two villages, when is the best time to sell? The short answer would seem to be--Hold out as long as you can for for a Large-Spike.

The logic being that because most of your upside potential is going to be with a Large-Spike, passing up a good Random price or a strong Small-Spike is--even if it means selling at a loss in any one particular week--going to pay off in the long run.

Nonetheless, I wasn't planning on waiting till Thursday night this time, and had my JP Spike not presented itself in such a timely manner, I would have in fact sold at 188. The main reason being that my JP village just had a Large-Spike last week, so the odds are seriously against another one this week. And another Small-Spike would still have been unlikely to beat 188.

That said, now that the JP Spike is underway, I'm going go with whatever happens there. I really wasn't looking forward to selling today anyway, since my turnips are in my JP village, and would have to be sold in the NA town. I'm heading out the the Brandon Best Buy Wii U event soon, and i just don't have time today to fiddle with working out the most efficient way to shuttle between towns.

Also, more disturbingly, I'm suffering from serious pains in my wrists and hands from overuse, and my doctor yesterday told me I'd have to rest for a while. It's not just ACNL that's doing it--my real-world employment has become very mouse/keyboard intensive in just the last three months, which is probably the where the majority of my problems are coming from.

I can't hold the XL for extended amounts of time any longer because of the discomfort, which is doubly alarming because I used to play it for hours on end when the JP version first came out. That goodness I still have my lightweight NA launch 3DS...

It looks like I will need to find a hands-free mouse of some sort.
#9MrSealPosted 6/12/2013 9:26:32 AM
For my Wed afternoon quote I got 547 per turnip. that's pretty good right?
#10KitzukiPosted 6/12/2013 9:35:18 AM
MR seal Can I sell some Turnips on your city?