FlyojumperPosted 1/31/2013 2:28:32 AM | So the strategy guide's recruitment % listed for Napcap is 25%.
I just fought 35 of them in a row without a single capture chance.
Now I am aware of how probabilities work, but the chances of that happening are literally 1 chance in over 23000... (0.75^35)
So although I could just have drawn that 1/23000 short straw, chances are that some of the numbers listed in the guide can be way off. I think the game may boost your chances of capture when capturing your very first monster of this type, and that could be what the guide's listing is reflecting.
Capturers beware!
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SeiferSeraphosPosted 1/31/2013 3:07:03 AM | I just beat the game and I definitely agree with your theory. Seems that my rate of capture is higher when I encounter a monster for the first time.
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PorkinzPosted 1/31/2013 3:12:09 AM | I caught one my first time.
I wouldn't doubt the strategy guide might have a few mistakes like this though.
They always do.
*thinks back to FF7 guide where it had how to breed the gold chocobo and it listed the wrong nut*
so many wasted babies :( |
TTUJimPosted 1/31/2013 3:26:04 AM | RNG is random.
Since your previous attempts have zero bearing on future attempts it is correct. The odds of drawing a card from a deck increases with more draws as the deck becomes smaller. The odds of flipping a coin and getting heads will always be fifty percent (given the small fraction of an edge toss but it is minimal and neglected). The first toss will not affect the last. Same with tame rate. Assume the game rolls a 100 sided dice for a tame. If it bits a over 76 you can tame. Anything below is a miss. Now do this 100 times. 1000. 10000. From there you will see the actual 25%. |
the_requiemPosted 1/31/2013 5:24:26 AM | TTUJim posted...RNG is random.
Since your previous attempts have zero bearing on future attempts it is correct. The odds of drawing a card from a deck increases with more draws as the deck becomes smaller. The odds of flipping a coin and getting heads will always be fifty percent (given the small fraction of an edge toss but it is minimal and neglected). The first toss will not affect the last. Same with tame rate. Assume the game rolls a 100 sided dice for a tame. If it bits a over 76 you can tame. Anything below is a miss. Now do this 100 times. 1000. 10000. From there you will see the actual 25%. ^This. Not saying that Guide isn't wrong, but past failures have no bearing on future attempts at such an RNG. Maybe we should have sample data from multiple players and then even it out, no? --- [PSN:wreck_em] Borderlands 2: Maya-10, Zero-50, Axton-25, Sal-50 |
AtmaRagnarok9Posted 1/31/2013 9:16:58 AM | the_requiem posted...TTUJim posted...
RNG is random.
Since your previous attempts have zero bearing on future attempts it is correct. The odds of drawing a card from a deck increases with more draws as the deck becomes smaller. The odds of flipping a coin and getting heads will always be fifty percent (given the small fraction of an edge toss but it is minimal and neglected). The first toss will not affect the last. Same with tame rate. Assume the game rolls a 100 sided dice for a tame. If it bits a over 76 you can tame. Anything below is a miss. Now do this 100 times. 1000. 10000. From there you will see the actual 25%.
^This.
Not saying that Guide isn't wrong, but past failures have no bearing on future attempts at such an RNG. Maybe we should have sample data from multiple players and then even it out, no? Sure, a larger sample size is always better. But TC is correct in his probability analysis. The chances of this happening are indeed 0.75^35. It's a simple binomial question, and from the original post, I didn't gather that he was falling into a Gambler's dilemma or something like that. He's not saying that he is 99% likely to tame a Napcap on the next go. He is simply saying that, given 35 slaughtered Napcaps, the probability that none of them fall in love with you is 1 in about 23,596. This statement is true. --- Goodnight, sweet Prince, and may flights of angels sing thee to thy rest. |
ChronuxPosted 1/31/2013 9:33:13 AM | I agree, the % is BS.
Regarding the napcap as well.
25% my ass, took me 41 kills before I caught one..... not to mention they pain in the ass to even find too |
Tyrel_AirizonPosted 1/31/2013 9:39:38 AM | There is alot wrong in the guide. Names of some items, boss thefts, I think there was a scavenge that was wrong at some point too. But whatever xD i use it for stats and chest locations. |
terminal21Posted 1/31/2013 9:55:46 AM | Random is random and luck is luck. What you're doing is the equivalent of people who catch a toko on their first attempt coming on and saying "the guide is wrong! toko capture chance is 100%!".
Your being unlucky doesn't prove anything when so many others come on and say they got it on the first try.
That said, not like I would be surprised if the guide were wrong, your example just doesn't prove it.
You're three times more likely not to capture one as to capture one, every time you try. You shouldn't be surprised when you don't, even many in a row. |
LeanaunfurledPosted 1/31/2013 9:58:31 AM | It's all random, you were just unlucky. I got toko and dinoceros in under ten tries, that doesn't stop their capture rate from being..what? 2% and 4% or something?
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