# Grandia III

## Gambling FAQ by Rose4256

**Version:** 1.7 | **Updated:** 02/23/06 | Search Guide | Bookmark Guide

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Grandia III Gambling FAQ
(version 1.7)
Table of Contents:
I. About this guide
II. Version history
III. Dealer menu
IV. Instructions
V. Probabilities
VI. Prize exchange
I. About this guide ===========================================================
Legal information:
(c) Copyright 2006 Pete Strege.
This may be not be reproduced under any circumstances except for personal,
private use. It may not be placed on any web site or otherwise distributed
publicly without advance written permission. Use of this guide on any other
web site or as a part of any public display is strictly prohibited, and a
violation of copyright.
Contact information:
Author: Pete Strege
gamefaqs.com username: Rose4256
If you want to contact me, you may post on the message board here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=927215
II. Version history ===========================================================
Version History:
FAQ started November 9, 2005
1.7 February 23, 2006: Edited instructions to make them easier to understand.
1.6 February 20, 2006: Finished corrections to prize names and descriptions.
1.5 February 18, 2006: Corrected prize names and descriptions.
1.4 February 07, 2006: Corrected a typo.
1.3 December 20, 2005: Calculated probabilities for 4 sequences.
1.2 December 14, 2005: Rounded probabilities to 3 decimal places.
1.1 November 16, 2005: Added two more probability tables.
1.0 November 11, 2005: First full draft.
III. Dealer menu ==============================================================
Talk to the dealer:
* Play Game
1) Place your bet (1-1000 Medals)
Accept? (Y/N)
2) Arrange sequence:
(Start) [] [] <- Discard
[] [] [] [] [] [] [] <- Sequence
3) Roll 5x
4) Roll again/Change bet/Exit
* Buy Medals
Exchange rate: Purchase each medal (M) for 5 gold (G).
20M for 100G
200M for 1000G
2000M for 10000G
* Prize Exchange (see "VI. Prize Exchange")
* Quit
IV. Instructions ==============================================================
THE OBJECTIVE OF THE GAME IS TO ASSEMBLE A RUN OF 3-5 ADJACENT CARDS.
How to play:
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1) Buy some medals. Caution: You cannot exchange medals back into gold when
you are finished playing!
2) Save your game in the neighboring tent. Reload as necessary.
3) Reenter the gambling tent, talk to the dealer, and place your bet. I
recommend betting no more than 10-20% of your total medals at a time. For
example, bet 10 medals if you have 50-100 total, or bet 1000 medals if you
have >5000 total).
4) Arrange a sequence of 7 cards. You must choose from 9 cards (III IV V VI
VII VIII IX X XI) and discard 2. For starters, try one of the first three
sequences (I'll explain the theory later):
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sequence Discard Predicted Observed Max bonus Comment
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
IV V VI VII VIII IX X III XI 31% 30% x200 default
III V VI VII VIII IX XI IV X 29% 30% x400 recommended
V III VI VII VIII XI IX IV X 21% 15% x400 recommended
V VI III VII XI VIII IX IV X 14% 9% x800 best bonus
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
5) Roll one pair of dice 5 times per bet. Each time you roll a number that
matches the number on a card, that card is placed forward.
IF 3-5 ADJACENT CARDS ARE PLACED FORWARD AT THE END OF YOUR TURN, YOU WIN.
YOUR WINNINGS = (BET)*(BONUS)*(DEUCE)^n, where n = the number of deuces
rolled. If you roll one deuce in addition to a 3- or 4-card run, your
reward will be multiplied by 10. If you roll two deuces in addition to a 3-
card run, your reward will be multiplied by 100. If a 3-5 card run includes
one red card ("Lucky," III OR XI), your reward will be multiplied by 2. If
a 3-5 card run includes both red cards ("Fever," III AND XI), your reward
will be multiplied by 4. If you roll a 12 at any time, you automatically
lose. The bonuses are summarized below:
---------------------------
10 Grade Up x 10
3 Card Row x 2
Lucky 3 Card Row x 4
Fever 3 Card Row x 8
4 Card Row x 15
Lucky 4 Card Row x 30
Fever 4 Card Row x 60
Absolute Card x 100
Lucky Absolute Card x 200
Fever Absolute Card x 400
---------------------------
6) Save your game after every big win (>8x bonus or >15,000).
7) Exchange your medals for prizes. I recommend keeping >10,000M in reserve.
Tip:
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
You'll have to press the X button intermittently, approximately once every 2-3
seconds. The repetition can become boring, so you'll have a few options. If
you're low on medals, you'll want to pay attention to whether you run out and
are forced to reload your save file. However, if you've accumulated a sizable
amount, you could flip your switcher and watch television while tapping X. The
easiest option would be to screw a C-clamp onto a turbo controller; you could
check back later to see how much you've won.
The theory behind choosing a sequence:
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The red cards III and XI double your reward if included in a winning run, but
there are only 2 of 36 possible combinations to roll each (see table below).
By comparison, there are more combinations to roll the middle numbers (IV, V,
VI, VII, VIII, IX, and X). Therefore, the middle numbers will appear more
often due to chance.
When picking a sequence, you'll want to keep open the possibility of a red card
bonus while getting rid of the least probable green cards. For example, there
are 2/36 chances to roll a III versus 3/36 chances to roll a IV; similarly,
there are 2/36 chances to roll a XI versus 3/36 chances to roll a X. It would
not be a huge sacrifice to switch the IV and X for a III and XI, respectively.
Second, you'll want to place the numbers with the highest probability in the
middle of the sequence.
Based on the above criteria, this would be a good set-up for beginners:
III V VI VII VIII IX XI
If you want to try for the Fever Absolute Card (x400) jackpot, you could
slightly alter the previous sequence by flanking the III and XI to the sides of
the 3 most common numbers, VI-VII-VIII:
V III VI VII VIII XI IX
V. Probabilities ==============================================================
Probability of circumstance x = "P(x)"
P(getting a given card per roll) or "P(card)":
-------------------------------------------------
Card Combinations Probability
-------------------------------------------------
II 1+1 1/36 = 0.028
III 1+2, 2+1 2/36 = 0.055
IV 1+3, 2+2, 3+1 3/36 = 0.083
V 1+4, 2+3, 3+2, 4+1 4/36 = 0.111
VI 1+5, 2+4, 3+3, 4+2, 5+1 5/36 = 0.139
VII 1+6, 2+5, 3+4, 4+3, 5+2, 6+1 6/36 = 0.167
VIII 2+6, 3+5, 4+4, 5+3, 6+2 5/36 = 0.139
IX 3+6, 4+5, 5+4, 6+3 4/36 = 0.111
X 4+6, 5+5, 6+4 3/36 = 0.083
XI 5+6, 6+5 2/36 = 0.055
XII 6+6 1/36 = 0.028
-------------------------------------------------
Total 36/36 = 1.000
P(not getting a card in any of 5 rolls) or "P(0/5)"
= P(getting any except the given card)^5
= (1-P(card))^5:
-------------------------------------------------
Card Equation Probability
-------------------------------------------------
II (1-1/36)^5 = 0.869
III (1-2/36)^5 = 0.751
IV (1-3/36)^5 = 0.647
V (1-4/36)^5 = 0.555
VI (1-5/36)^5 = 0.473
VII (1-6/36)^5 = 0.402
VIII (1-5/36)^5 = 0.473
IX (1-4/36)^5 = 0.555
X (1-3/36)^5 = 0.647
XI (1-2/36)^5 = 0.751
XII (1-1/36)^5 = 0.869
-------------------------------------------------
P(getting a card in at least 1 of 5 rolls) or "P(>0/5)"
= 1-P(0/5)
= 1-(1-P(card))^5:
-------------------------------------------------
Card Equation Probability
-------------------------------------------------
II 1-(1-1/36)^5 = 0.131
III 1-(1-2/36)^5 = 0.248
IV 1-(1-3/36)^5 = 0.353
V 1-(1-4/36)^5 = 0.445
VI 1-(1-5/36)^5 = 0.526
VII 1-(1-6/36)^5 = 0.598
VIII 1-(1-5/36)^5 = 0.526
IX 1-(1-4/36)^5 = 0.445
X 1-(1-3/36)^5 = 0.353
XI 1-(1-2/36)^5 = 0.248
XII 1-(1-1/36)^5 = 0.131
-------------------------------------------------
You would like to know the probability of "a AND b AND c" as long as
the remaining 2 slots are "NOT f OR f OR xii," in any order but regardless of
the position of f's. Therefore, instead of multiplying all probabilities by 5!
(120), you need to multiply by 5!/2 (60) instead. For example, multiplying 3!
by 10 possible combinations for the sequence "o-o-o-x-x" yields 60:
123xx
132xx
213xx
231xx
312xx
321xx
xxooo
xoxoo
xooxo
xooox
oxxoo
oxoxo
oxoox
ooxxo
ooxox
oooxx
In equation form, this becomes:
P(a-b-c) = P(a)*P(b)*P(c)*(1-(P(f)+P(f)+P(xii)))^2*5!/2,
where a-b-c = sequence and f = card(s) flanking the sequence.
Unfortunately, when I tested my prediction for P(3 in a row), the observed
probability after 100 tries was much lower than expected. However, the
equation somehow fits if you multiply by 5!/4 instead of 5!/2. I also observed
xii appearing in 68/400 or 17% of turns, which was much more common than
predicted by 1-(35/36)^5 = 13%.
P(a-b-c-d) = P(a)*P(b)*P(c)*P(d)*(1-(P(f)+P(xii)))*5!,
where a-b-c-d = sequence and f = card(s) flanking the sequence.
P(a-b-c-d-e) = P(a)*P(b)*P(c)*P(d)*P(e)*5!
P(any winning hand for 4-5-6-7-8-9-10):
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Card II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Pred Obs
x/36 1 2 3 4 5 6 5 4 3 2 1 36
P(card) .03 .06 .08 .11 .14 .17 .14 .11 .08 .06 .03 .999
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
P(a-b-c) = P(a)*P(b)*P(c)*(1-(P(f)+P(f)+P(xii)))^2*5!/4
4-5-6 .08 .11 .14 .17 .03 .025 .04
5-6-7 .08 .11 .14 .17 .14 .03 .043 .06
6-7-8 .11 .14 .17 .14 .11 .03 .054 .03
7-8-9 .14 .17 .14 .11 .08 .03 .043 .08
8-9-10 .17 .14 .11 .08 .03 .025 .00
P(a-b-c-d) = P(a)*P(b)*P(c)*P(d)*(1-(P(f)+P(xii)))*5!
4-5-6-7 .08 .11 .14 .17 .14 .03 .021 .00
5-6-7-8 .08 .11 .14 .17 .14 .11 .03 .033 .01
6-7-8-9 .11 .14 .17 .14 .11 .08 .03 .033 .08
7-8-9-10 .14 .17 .14 .11 .08 .03 .021 .00
P(a-b-c-d-e) = P(a)*P(b)*P(c)*P(d)*P(e)*5!
4-5-6-7-8 .35 .45 .53 .60 .53 .004 .00
5-6-7-8-9 .45 .53 .60 .53 .45 .005 .00
6-7-8-9-10 .53 .60 .53 .45 .35 .004 .00
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sum total .313 .30
P(any winning hand for 3-5-6-7-8-9-11):
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Card II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Pred Obs
x/36 1 2 3 4 5 6 5 4 3 2 1 36
P(card) .03 .06 .08 .11 .14 .17 .14 .11 .08 .06 .03 .999
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
P(a-b-c) = P(a)*P(b)*P(c)*(1-(P(f)+P(f)+P(xii)))^2*5!/4
3-5-6 .06 .11 .14 .17 .03 .017 .02
5-6-7 .06 .11 .14 .17 .14 .03 .047 .07
6-7-8 .11 .14 .17 .14 .11 .03 .054 .02
7-8-9 .14 .17 .14 .11 .06 .03 .047 .10
8-9-11 .17 .14 .11 .06 .03 .017 .02
P(a-b-c-d) = P(a)*P(b)*P(c)*P(d)*(1-(P(f)+P(xii)))*5!
3-5-6-7 .06 .11 .14 .17 .14 .03 .014 .02
5-6-7-8 .06 .11 .14 .17 .14 .11 .03 .035 .01
6-7-8-9 .11 .14 .17 .14 .11 .06 .03 .035 .01
7-8-9-11 .14 .17 .14 .11 .06 .03 .014 .02
P(a-b-c-d-e) = P(a)*P(b)*P(c)*P(d)*P(e)*5!
3-5-6-7-8 .06 .11 .14 .17 .14 .002 .00
5-6-7-8-9 .11 .14 .17 .14 .11 .005 .01
6-7-8-9-11 .14 .17 .14 .11 .06 .002 .01
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sum total .288 .30
P(any winning hand for 5-3-6-7-8-11-9):
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Card II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Pred Obs
x/36 1 2 3 4 5 6 5 4 3 2 1 36
P(card) .03 .06 .08 .11 .14 .17 .14 .11 .08 .06 .03 .999
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
P(a-b-c) = P(a)*P(b)*P(c)*(1-(P(f)+P(f)+P(xii)))^2*5!/4
5-3-6 .06 .11 .14 .17 .03 .017 .01
3-6-7 .06 .11 .14 .17 .14 .03 .020 .01
6-7-8 .06 .14 .17 .14 .06 .03 .072 .07
7-8-11 .14 .17 .14 .11 .06 .03 .020 .03
8-11-9 .17 .14 .11 .06 .03 .017 .00
P(a-b-c-d) = P(a)*P(b)*P(c)*P(d)*(1-(P(f)+P(xii)))*5!
5-3-6-7 .06 .11 .14 .17 .03 .014 .00
3-6-7-8 .06 .11 .14 .17 .14 .06 .03 .017 .01
6-7-8-11 .06 .14 .17 .14 .11 .06 .03 .017 .02
7-8-11-9 .14 .17 .14 .11 .06 .03 .014 .00
P(a-b-c-d-e) = P(a)*P(b)*P(c)*P(d)*P(e)*5!
5-3-6-7-8 .06 .11 .14 .17 .14 .002 .00
3-6-7-8-11 .06 .14 .17 .14 .06 .001 .00
6-7-8-11-9 .14 .17 .14 .11 .06 .002 .00
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sum total .214 .15
P(any winning hand for 5-6-3-7-11-8-9):
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Card II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Pred Obs
x/36 1 2 3 4 5 6 5 4 3 2 1 36
P(card) .03 .06 .08 .11 .14 .17 .14 .11 .08 .06 .03 .999
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
P(a-b-c) = P(a)*P(b)*P(c)*(1-(P(f)+P(f)+P(xii)))^2*5!/4
5-6-3 .06 .11 .14 .17 .03 .017 .01
6-3-7 .06 .11 .14 .17 .06 .03 .025 .00
3-7-11 .06 .14 .17 .14 .06 .03 .007 .00
7-11-8 .06 .17 .14 .11 .06 .03 .025 .04
11-8-9 .17 .14 .11 .06 .03 .017 .01
P(a-b-c-d) = P(a)*P(b)*P(c)*P(d)*(1-(P(f)+P(xii)))*5!
5-6-3-7 .06 .11 .14 .17 .06 .03 .016 .01
6-3-7-11 .06 .11 .14 .17 .14 .06 .03 .006 .00
3-7-11-8 .06 .14 .17 .14 .11 .06 .03 .006 .01
7-11-8-9 .06 .17 .14 .11 .06 .03 .016 .01
P(a-b-c-d-e) = P(a)*P(b)*P(c)*P(d)*P(e)*5!
5-6-3-7-11 .06 .11 .14 .17 .06 .001 .00
6-3-7-11-8 .06 .14 .17 .14 .06 .001 .00
3-7-11-8-9 .06 .17 .14 .11 .06 .001 .00
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sum total .138 .09
VI. Prize Exchange ============================================================
A maximum 9 of each item may be purchased in exchange for medals earned.
Early in the game, I recommend the jade charm, magic pendant, and staff of
healing. After you can fly freely, revisit to pick up 3 mysterious clogs and
3 rune armors. (Dahna doesn't need to warp because she can throw her cards,
and she can't equip rune armor.) Do not waste your time trying to win the
gambler. It's too inconsistent to be worth its price. Later in the game, buy
3 ninja shoes and a master book. Stock up on platinum and golden feathers to
use during your fight against the last boss.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Prize Exchange Sell Effect Type Range Target
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
White Sulfur 16M 5G Restores 40 MP REC Single Ally
Panacea 24M 60G Cure poi,sleep,para,conf,sil,sick SUP Single Ally
Mogay Bomb 36M 5G Non-elemental, Pow 120, Cancel ATK Single Enemy
Revival Elixir 48M 120G Revives one ally 100% HP SUP Single Ally
Silver Feather 64M 5G Moves IP symbol far ahead SUP Single Ally
Manana Fruit 240M 50G Restores 80 MP REC Single Ally
Big Mogay Bomb 360M 20G Non-elemental, Pow 600, Cancel ATK Single Enemy
Warrior's Tonic 480M 32G Restores 100 SP REC Single Ally
Golden Feather 640M 25G Moves IP symbol far ahead SUP All Ally
Jade Charm 800M 16G ATK +5 --- ------ -----
Magic Pendant 800M 16G MAG +5 --- ------ -----
Holy Water 1600M 150G Restores 160 MP REC Single Ally
Fat Mogay Bomb 3600M 80G Non-elemental, Pow 1800, Cancel ATK Circle Enemy
Staff of Healing 4000M 108G ATK +20, +10 MAG, Restore HP --- ------ -----
Platinum Feather 6400M 100G Moves IP symbol far ahead SUP All Ally
Rune Armor 8000M 175G DEF +25, RES +50 --- ------ -----
Volcano Egg 12000M ---- Fire*** Magic Level 6 --- ------ -----
Lake Egg 12000M ---- Water*** Magic Level 6 --- ------ -----
Indigo Elixir 24000M 1375G Restores 320 MP REC Single Ally
Mysterious Clog 45000M 160G Warp movement --- ------ -----
The Gambler 80000M 1G ATK +??? Variable attack bonus --- ------ -----
Alluring Cards 120000M 450G ATK +99, Confuse an enemy --- ------ -----
Ninja Slippers 160000M 900G INI +10, Warp movement --- ------ -----
Master Book 999999M ---- Mind*** Tech*** Body***, Critical --- ------ -----
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