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but it's pretty obvious even without any math. just follow the winning team's path through the tournament
if they win a series 2-1, it's proof the worse team can still win individual games (because both teams have a win). so the chance of the worse team eliminating the better team is nonzero. multiply that by like 6 teams in the path and the chances of the winning team being the best doesn't even crack 50%
ironically a massive round robin system like the preliminaries would be more reliable, but less exciting