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From what I've seen, it seems to be related to your avg high rd and performance per match. I've only played a few games, but many of them are into the high 30's and 40's(would be more, but the stupid game lags out so often). Aside from that, I rarely go down and always revive my teammates.
The reason I assume it's based on rds is because I haven't played too many games and therefore only have 15K kills, yet have had the skull and shotguns for about a month. Many of my xbox live friends have 50K+ kills while they are either a skull or skull and dagger. Those same friends don't have any recorded high rds of 30+. They also have more downs and deaths than I do, but I still believe that the rds is one of THE primary factors.
I posted my stats right around when I first got the shottys in an effort to figure out how the ranking system works. Here is the action-packed thread:
So far, the emblems seem pretty spot on. I rarely see shottys in the lobby and the only two guys on my friend's list with shottys are the only two guys on my list that I would consider better than myself.
I played a few custom matches the first day when exploring, quit and didn't check boards. Later played a custom game to the mid 30s on Town and quit only to see that it didn't record on the leaderboards. We both had friends with recorded rds under 2 player games, so we figured it just glitched like it has in BOps 1. So, we played a game on Nuketown(we bought hardened) to rd 40 and quit.. only to see it didn't record AGAIN!
Long story short, I put in some work on Custom.. probably 5K kills and 50-60% of my downs. It's been public from that point on.