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Well I've noticed for me, and I'm sure a lot of people, it always seems to show that we're facing favoured or slightly favoured opponents.
If that's the case, the diamond players should just be those who play a lot, since losing 3 matches and winning 1 still gives a net increase in score. So even if a platinum player is bad (obviously not 'bad', but not diamond material) he can eventually get into diamond just by winning once every few matches. Meanwhile, there are people on these forums who have gone 8-0 and can't even get into diamond yet.